60 resultados para Last planner system

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Transient simulations are widely used in studying the past climate as they provide better comparison with any exisiting proxy data. However, multi-millennial transient simulations using coupled climate models are usually computationally very expensive. As a result several acceleration techniques are implemented when using numerical simulations to recreate past climate. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere. The data provided here are from both accelerated and non-accelerated runs as decadal mean values.

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It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

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We present alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) records from three marine cores collected within the southern Benguela Upwelling System (BUS) spanning the last 3 ka. The SST evolution over the last 3 millennia is marked by aperiodic millennial-scale oscillations that broadly correspond to climatic anomalies identified over the North Atlantic region. The BUS SST data further suggest cooling and warming trends opposite to the temperature evolution in the Moroccan upwelling region and in Antarctica. In contrast, the last decades are marked by a cooling of unprecedented magnitude in both the Benguela and Moroccan upwelling systems, which is not observed in the Antarctic record. These contrasted responses in Atlantic upwelling systems triggered by natural and anthropogenic forcings shed light on how different climatic mechanisms are mediated by ocean-atmosphere interactions and transmitted to the geological records of past and present climate changes.

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The magnitude and the chronology of anthropogenic impregnation by Hg and other trace metals of environmental concern (V, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ag, Cd and Pb, including its stable isotopes) in the sediments are determined at the DYFAMED station, a site in the Ligurian Sea (Northwestern Mediterranean) chosen for its supposed open-sea characteristics. The DYFAMED site (VD) is located on the right levee of the Var Canyon turbidite system, at the end of the Middle Valley. In order to trace the influence of the gravity current coming from the canyon on trace metal distribution in the sediment, we studied an additional sediment core (VA) from a terrace of the Var Canyon, and material collected in sediment traps at the both sites at 20 m above sea bottom. The patterns of Hg and other trace element distribution profiles are interpreted using stable Pb isotope ratios as proxies for its sources, taking into account the sedimentary context (turbidites, redox conditions, and sedimentation rates). Major element distributions, coupled with the stratigraphic examination of the sediment cores point out the high heterogeneity of the deposits at VA, and major turbiditic events at both sites. At the DYFAMED site, we observed direct anthropogenic influence in the upper sediment layer (<2 cm), while on the Var Canyon site (VA), the anthropization concerns the whole sedimentary column sampled (19 cm). Turbiditic events superimpose their specific signature on trace metal distributions. According to the 210Pbxs-derived sedimentation rate at the DYFAMED site (0.4 mm yr-1), the Hg-enriched layer of the top core corresponds to the sediment accumulation of the last 50 years, which is the period of the highest increase in Hg deposition on a global scale. With the hypothesis of the absence of significant post-depositional redistribution of Hg, the Hg/C-org ratio changes between the surface and below are used to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the Hg flux accumulated in the sediment. The Hg enrichment, from pre-industrial to the present time is calculated to be around 60%, consistent with estimations of global Hg models. However, based on the chemical composition of the trapped material collected in sediment traps, we calculated that epibenthic mobilization of Hg would reach 73%. Conversely, the Cd/C-org ratio decreases in the upper 5 cm, which may reflect the recent decrease of atmospheric Cd inputs or losses due to diagenetic processes.

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The glacial climate system transitioned rapidly between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. This variability, referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, is widely believed to arise from perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Evidence for such changes during the longer Heinrich stadials has been identified, but direct evidence for overturning circulation changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events has proven elusive. Here we reconstruct bottom water [CO3]2- variability from B/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera and indicators of sedimentary dissolution, and use these reconstructions to infer the flow of northern-sourced deep water to the deep central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. We find that nearly every Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial is accompanied by a rapid incursion of North Atlantic Deep Water into the deep South Atlantic. Based on these results and transient climate model simulations, we conclude that North Atlantic stadial-interstadial climate variability was associated with significant Atlantic overturning circulation changes that were rapidly transmitted across the Atlantic. However, by demonstrating the persistent role of Atlantic overturning circulation changes in past abrupt climate variability, our reconstructions of carbonate chemistry further indicate that the carbon cycle response to abrupt climate change was not a simple function of North Atlantic overturning.

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To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

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Faunal analyses of planktonic foraminifera and upper-water temperature reconstructions with the modern analog technique are studied and compared to themagnetic susceptibility and gamma ray logs of ODP Core 999A (western Caribbean) for the past 560 kyr in order to explore changes in paleoceanographic conditions in the western Caribbean Sea. Long-term trends in the percentage abundance of planktonic foraminifera inODP Core 999Asuggest two hydrographic scenarios: before and after 480 ka.High percentage abundances of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Globorotalia inflata, low abundances of Globorotalia menardii and Globorotalia truncatulinoides, low diversity, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) under 24 °C are typical characteristics occurring from 480 to 560 ka. These characteristics suggest a "shallow" well-oxygenated upper thermocline and the influx of nutrients by either seasonal upwelling plumes and/or eddy-mediated entrainment. The second scenario occurred after 480 ka, and it is characterized by high and fluctuating percentage abundances of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, G. truncatulinoides, G. menardii, Globigerinita glutinata, Globigerinella siphonifera, and Globigerinoides ruber; a declining trend in diversity; and large SSTs. These characteristics suggest a steady change from conditions characterized by a "shallow" thermocline and chlorophyll maximum to conditions characterized by a "deep" thermocline (mainly during glacial stages) and by more oligotrophic conditions. The influence of the subtropical North Atlantic on the upper thermocline was apparently larger during glacial stages, thus favoring a deepening of the thermocline, an increase in sea-surface salinity, and a dramatic reduction of nutrients in the Guajira upwelling system. During interglacial stages, the influx of nutrients from the Magdalena River is stronger, thus resulting in a deep chlorophyll maximumand a fresher upper ocean. The eddy entrainment of nutrients is the probable mechanism responsible of transport from the Guajira upwelling and Magdalena River plumes into ODP 999A site.

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The complex deglacial to Holocene oceanographic development in the Gulf of Guayaquil (Eastern Equatorial Pacific) is reconstructed for sea surface and subsurface ocean levels from (isotope) geochemical proxies based on marine sediment cores. At sea surface, southern sourced Cold Coastal Water and tropical Equatorial Surface Water/Tropical Surface Water are intimately related. In particular since ~10 ka, independent sea surface temperature proxies capturing different seasons emphasize the growing seasonal contrast in the Gulf of Guayaquil, which is in contrast to ocean areas further offshore. Cold Coastal Water became rapidly present in the Gulf of Guayaquil during the austral winter season in line with the strengthening of the Southeast Trades, while coastal upwelling off Peru gradually intensified and expanded northward in response to a seasonally changing atmospheric circulation pattern affecting the core locations intensively since 4 ka BP. Equatorial Surface Water, instead, was displaced and Tropical Surface Water moved northward together with the Equatorial Front. At subsurface, the presence of Equatorial Under Current-sourced Equatorial Subsurface Water was continuously growing, prominently since ~10-8 ka B.P. During Heinrich Stadial 1 and large parts of the Bølling/Allerød, and similarly during short Holocene time intervals at ~5.1-4 ka B.P. and ~1.5-0.5 ka B.P., the admixture of Equatorial Subsurface Water was reduced in response to both short-term weakening of Equatorial Under Current strength from the northwest and emplacement by tropical Equatorial Surface Water, considerably warming the uppermost ocean layers.

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Alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) records were generated from the Ocean Drilling Program's (ODP) Sites 1014 and 1016 to examine the response of the California Current System to global climate change during the last 136 ka. The temperature differences between these sites (Delta SST(NEP)=SST(ODP1014)-SST(ODP1016)) reflected the intensity of the California Current and varied between 0.4 and 6.1 °C. A high Delta SST(NEP) (weaker California Current) was found for late marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 and early MIS 5e, while a low Delta SST(NEP) (stronger California Current) was detected for mid-MIS 5e and MIS 1. Spectral analysis indicated that this variation pattern dominated 23- (precession) and 30-ka periods. Comparison of the Delta SST(NEP) and SST based on data from core MD01-2421 at the Japan margin revealed anti-phase variation; the high Delta SST(NEP) (weakening of the California Current) corresponded to the low SST at the Japan margin (the southward displacement of the NW Pacific subarctic boundary), and vice versa. This variation was synchronous with a model prediction of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation behavior. These findings suggest that the intensity of the North Pacific High varied in response to precessional forcing, and also that the response has been linked with the changes of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions.

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Mineral dust aerosols play a major role in present and past climates. To date, we rely on climate models for estimates of dust fluxes to calculate the impact of airborne micronutrients on biogeochemical cycles. Here we provide a new global dust flux data set for Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions based on observational data. A comparison with dust flux simulations highlights regional differences between observations and models. By forcing a biogeochemical model with our new data set and using this model's results to guide a millennial-scale Earth System Model simulation, we calculate the impact of enhanced glacial oceanic iron deposition on the LGM-Holocene carbon cycle. On centennial timescales, the higher LGM dust deposition results in a weak reduction of <10?ppm in atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced efficiency of the biological pump. This is followed by a further ~10?ppm reduction over millennial timescales due to greater carbon burial and carbonate compensation.