Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in South-West Australia - accompanying model results in NetCDF format

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Paleocoenographic investigations on sediment profile GeoB6008

Near-shore waters along the northwest African margin are characterized by coastal upwelling and represent one of the world's major upwelling regions. Sea surface temperature (SST) records from Moroccan sediment cores, extending back 2500 years, reveal anomalous and unprecedented cooling during the 20th century, which is consistent with increased upwelling. Upwelling-driven SSTs also vary out of phase with millennial-scale changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (NHTAs) and show relatively warm conditions during the Little Ice Age and relatively cool conditions during the Medieval Warm Period. Together, these results suggest that coastal upwelling varies with NHTAs and that upwelling off northwest Africa may continue to intensify as global warming and atmospheric CO2 levels increase.

Table 2. Lead and Ba concentrations and Pb isotopic compositions measured in Law Dome ice cores

Lead isotopic compositions and Pb and Ba concentrations have been measured in ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, covering the past 6500 years. 'Natural' background concentrations of Pb (ab. 0.4 pg/g) and Ba (ab. 1.3 pg/g) are observed until 1884 AD, after which increased Pb concentrations and lowered 206Pb/207Pb ratios indicate the influence of anthropogenic Pb. The isotopic composition of 'natural' Pb varies within the range 206Pb/207Pb=1.20-1.25 and 208Pb/207Pb=2.46-2.50, with an average rock and soil dust Pb contribution of 8-12%. A major pollution event is observed at Law Dome between 1884 and 1908 AD, elevating the Pb concentration four-fold and changing 206Pb/207Pb ratios in the ice to ab. 1.12. Based on Pb isotopic systematics and Pb emission statistics, this is attributed to Pb mined at Broken Hill and smelted at Broken Hill and Port Pirie, Australia. Anthropogenic Pb inputs are at their greatest from 1900 to 1910 and from ab. 1960 to ab. 1980. During the 20th century, Ba concentrations are consistently higher than 'natural' levels and are attributed to increased dust production, suggesting the influence of climate change and/or changes in land coverage with vegetation.