Shear experiments from IODP Expedition 322 and 333 samples

The mechanical behavior of the plate boundary fault zone is of paramount importance in subduction zones, because it controls megathrust earthquake nucleation and propagation as well as the structural style of the forearc. In the Nankai area along the NanTroSEIZE (Kumano) drilling transect offshore SW Japan, a heterogeneous sedimentary sequence overlying the oceanic crust enters the subduction zone. In order to predict how variations in lithology, and thus mechanical properties, affect the formation and evolution of the plate boundary fault, we conducted laboratory tests measuring the shear strengths of sediments approaching the trench covering each major lithological sedimentary unit. We observe that shear strength increases nonlinearly with depth, such that the (apparent) coefficient of friction decreases. In combination with a critical taper analysis, the results imply that the plate boundary position is located on the main frontal thrust. Further landward, the plate boundary is expected to step down into progressively lower stratigraphic units, assisted by moderately elevated pore pressures. As seismogenic depths are approached, the décollement may further step down to lower volcaniclastic or pelagic strata but this requires specific overpressure conditions. High-taper angle and elevated strengths in the toe region may be local features restricted to the Kumano transect.

(Table 1) Experimental shear strength values for IODP Exp315 and Exp316 holes

We investigate the mechanics of slope failures on the Nankai accretionary complex offshore Japan in the vicinity of a major out-of-sequence thrust fault (termed the "megasplay"). Incorporating laboratory-measured shear strength of slope sediments sampled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expeditions 315 and 316 with local seafloor slope angles from bathymetric data and constraints on in-situ effective stress conditions from drilling, we find that slopes in the study area are stable and submarine landslides are not expected to occur under static conditions. In order to assess the possibility of slope failure triggered by coseismic rupture of the megasplay fault, we use empirical relations for strong ground motion attenuation from earthquakes with Mw 6-9. We find that the slope sediments should be stable based on computations from one model, developed from a catalog of worldwide subduction zone earthquakes (Youngs et al., 1997, doi:10.1785/gssrl.68.1.58). However, using a different model developed primarily from a catalog of crustal earthquakes in Japan (Kanno et al., 2006, doi:10.1785/0120050138), we find that slopes should be unstable for earthquakes 8 <= Mw <= 9, and possibly unstable for events with 6 <= Mw < 8, depending on the proximity of rupture to the seafloor. Considering limitations of the models and geologic observations of slope failure recurrence, the true slope stability is likely to be in between the predictions of the two models, and we suggest that it may be modulated by long-term pore pressure fluctuations.