Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Acid-base balance and changes in haemolymph properties of the South African rock lobsters, Jasus lalandii, a palinurid decapod, during chronic hypercapnia

Few studies exist reporting on long-term exposure of crustaceans to hypercapnia. We exposed juvenile South African rock lobsters, Jasus lalandii, to hypercapnic conditions of pH 7.3 for 28 weeks and subsequently analysed changes in the extracellular fluid (haemolymph). Results revealed, for the first time, adjustments in the haemolymph of a palinurid crustacean during chronic hypercapnic exposure: 1) acid-base balance was adjusted and sustained by increased bicarbonate and 2) quantity and oxygen binding properties of haemocyanin changed. Compared with lobsters kept under normocapnic conditions (pH 8.0), during prolonged hypercapnia, juvenile lobsters increased bicarbonate buffering of haemolymph. This is necessary to provide optimum pH conditions for oxygen binding of haemocyanin and functioning of respiration in the presence of a strong Bohr Effect. Furthermore, modification of the intrinsic structure of the haemocyanin molecule, and not the presence of molecular modulators, seems to improve oxygen affinity under conditions of elevated pCO2.