The effect of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of single male:female crosses of broad-cast spawning corals at mid- and high-latitude locations

The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

Major cellular and physiological impacts of ocean acidification on a reef building coral

As atmospheric levels of CO2 increase, reef-building corals are under greater stress from both increased sea surface temperatures and declining sea water pH. To date, most studies have focused on either coral bleaching due to warming oceans or declining calcification due to decreasing oceanic carbonate ion concentrations. Here, through the use of physiology measurements and cDNA microarrays, we show that changes in pH and ocean chemistry consistent with two scenarios put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drive major changes in gene expression, respiration, photosynthesis and symbiosis of the coral, Acropora millepora, before affects on biomineralisation are apparent at the phenotype level. Under high CO2 conditions corals at the phenotype level lost over half their Symbiodinium populations, and had a decrease in both photosynthesis and respiration. Changes in gene expression were consistent with metabolic suppression, an increase in oxidative stress, apoptosis and symbiont loss. Other expression patterns demonstrate upregulation of membrane transporters, as well as the regulation of genes involved in membrane cytoskeletal interactions and cytoskeletal remodeling. These widespread changes in gene expression emphasize the need to expand future studies of ocean acidification to include a wider spectrum of cellular processes, many of which may occur before impacts on calcification.

The photo-physiological response of a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis to CO2-induced acidification at the cellular level

We measured the relationship between CO2-induced seawater acidification, photo-physiological performance and intracellular pH (pHi) in a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis - the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. -under ambient (289.94 ± 12.54 µatm), intermediate (687.40 ± 25.10 µatm) and high (1459.92 ± 65.51 µatm) CO2 conditions. These treatments represented current CO2 levels, in addition to CO2 stabilisation scenarios IV and VI provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Anemones were exposed to each treatment for two months and sampled at regular intervals. At each time-point we measured a series of physiological responses: maximum dark-adapted fluorescent yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), gross photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, symbiont population density, and light-adapted pHi of both the dinoflagellate symbiont and isolated host anemone cell. We observed increases in all but one photo-physiological parameter (Pgross:R ratio). At the cellular level, increases in light-adapted symbiont pHi were observed under both intermediate and high CO2 treatments, relative to control conditions (pHi 7.35 and 7.46 versus pHi 7.25, respectively). The response of light-adapted host pHi was more complex, however, with no change observed under the intermediate CO2 treatment, but a 0.3 pH-unit increase under the high CO2 treatment (pHi 7.19 and 7.48, respectively). This difference is likely a result of a disproportionate increase in photosynthesis relative to respiration at the higher CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that, rather than causing cellular acidosis, the addition of CO2 will enhance photosynthetic performance, enabling both the symbiont and host cell to withstand predicted ocean acidification scenarios.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Interactive effects of salinity and elevated CO2 levels on juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica

Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 lead to acidification of the ocean and alter seawater carbonate chemistry, which can negatively impact calcifying organisms, including mollusks. In estuaries, exposure to elevated CO2 levels often co-occurs with other stressors, such as reduced salinity, which enhances the acidification trend, affects ion and acid-base regulation of estuarine calcifiers and modifies their response to ocean acidification. We studied the interactive effects of salinity and partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) on biomineralization and energy homeostasis in juveniles of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, a common estuarine bivalve. Juveniles were exposed for 11 weeks to one of two environmentally relevant salinities (30 or 15 PSU) either at current atmospheric PCO2 (400 µatm, normocapnia) or PCO2 projected by moderate IPCC scenarios for the year 2100 (700-800 µatm, hypercapnia). Exposure of the juvenile oysters to elevated PCO2 and/or low salinity led to a significant increase in mortality, reduction of tissue energy stores (glycogen and lipid) and negative soft tissue growth, indicating energy deficiency. Interestingly, tissue ATP levels were not affected by exposure to changing salinity and PCO2, suggesting that juvenile oysters maintain their cellular energy status at the expense of lipid and glycogen stores. At the same time, no compensatory upregulation of carbonic anhydrase activity was found under the conditions of low salinity and high PCO2. Metabolic profiling using magnetic resonance spectroscopy revealed altered metabolite status following low salinity exposure; specifically, acetate levels were lower in hypercapnic than in normocapnic individuals at low salinity. Combined exposure to hypercapnia and low salinity negatively affected mechanical properties of shells of the juveniles, resulting in reduced hardness and fracture resistance. Thus, our data suggest that the combined effects of elevated PCO2 and fluctuating salinity may jeopardize the survival of eastern oysters because of weakening of their shells and increased energy consumption.

Calcification of the Arctic coralline red algae Lithothamnion glaciale in response to elevated CO2

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations could cause a calcium carbonate subsaturation of Arctic surface waters in the next 20 yr, making these waters corrosive for calcareous organisms. It is presently unknown what effects this will have on Arctic calcifying organisms and the ecosystems of which they are integral components. So far, acidification effects on crustose coralline red algae (CCA) have only been studied in tropical and Mediterranean species. In this work, we investigated calcification rates of the CCA Lithothamnion glaciale collected in northwest Svalbard in laboratory experiments under future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The algae were exposed to simulated Arctic summer and winter light conditions in 2 separate experiments at optimum growth temperatures. We found a significant negative effect of increased CO2 levels on the net calcification rates of L. glaciale in both experiments. Annual mean net dissolution of L. glaciale was estimated to start at an aragonite saturation state between 1.1 and 0.9 which is projected to occur in parts of the Arctic surface ocean between 2030 and 2050 if emissions follow 'business as usual' scenarios (SRES A2; IPCC 2007). The massive skeleton of CCA, which consist of more than 80% calcium carbonate, is considered crucial to withstanding natural stresses such as water movement, overgrowth or grazing. The observed strong negative response of this Arctic CCA to increased CO2 levels suggests severe threats of the projected ocean acidification for an important habitat provider in the Arctic coastal ocean.

Comparative responses of two dominant Antarctic phytoplankton taxa to interactions between ocean acidification, warming, irradiance, and iron availability

We investigated the responses of the ecologically dominant Antarctic phytoplankton species Phaeocystis antarctica (a prymnesiophyte) and Fragilariopsis cylindrus (a diatom) to a clustered matrix of three global change variables (CO2, mixed-layer depth, and temperature) under both iron (Fe)-replete and Fe-limited conditions based roughly on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario: (1) Current conditions, 39 Pa (380 ppmv) CO2, 50 µmol photons/m**2/s light, and 2°C; (2) Year 2060, 61 Pa (600 ppmv) CO2, 100 µmol photons/m**2/s light, and 4°C; (3) Year 2100, 81 Pa (800 ppmv) CO2, 150 µmol photons/m**2/s light, and 6°C. The combined interactive effects of these global change variables and changing Fe availability on growth, primary production, and cell morphology are species specific. A competition experiment suggested that future conditions could lead to a shift away from P. antarctica and toward diatoms such as F. cylindrus. Along with decreases in diatom cell size and shifts from prymnesiophyte colonies to single cells under the future scenario, this could potentially lead to decreased carbon export to the deep ocean. Fe : C uptake ratios of both species increased under future conditions, suggesting phytoplankton of the Southern Ocean will increase their Fe requirements relative to carbon fixation. The interactive effects of Fe, light, CO2, and temperature on Antarctic phytoplankton need to be considered when predicting the future responses of biology and biogeochemistry in this region.

Bellingshausen Sea bathymetric compilation

The southern Bellingshausen Sea (SBS) is a rapidly-changing part of West Antarctica, where oceanic and atmospheric warming has led to the recent basal melting and break-up of the Wilkins ice shelf, the dynamic thinning of fringing glaciers, and sea-ice reduction. Accurate sea-floor morphology is vital for understanding the continued effects of each process upon changes within Antarctica's ice sheets. Here we present a new bathymetric grid for the SBS compiled from shipborne echo-sounder, spot-sounding and sub-ice measurements. The 1-km grid is the most detailed compilation for the SBS to-date, revealing large cross-shelf troughs, shallow banks, and deep inner-shelf basins that continue inland of coastal ice shelves. The troughs now serve as pathways which allow warm deep water to access the ice fronts in the SBS. Our dataset highlights areas still lacking bathymetric constraint, as well as regions for further investigation, including the likely routes of palaeo-ice streams. The new compilation is a major improvement upon previous grids and will be a key dataset for incorporating into simulations of ocean circulation, ice-sheet change and history. It will also serve forecasts of ice stability and future sea-level contributions from ice loss in West Antarctica, required for the next IPCC assessment report in 2013.

In situ pore water oxygen microprofiles from the Polar Front, Southern South Atlantic Ocean

Without doubt, global climate change is directly linked to the anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (UN IPCC-Report 2007). Therefore, research efforts to comprehend the global carbon cycle have increased during the last years. In the context of the observed changes, it is of particular interest to decipher the role of the hydro-, bio- and atmospheres and how the different compartments of the earth system are affected by the increase of atmospheric CO2. Due to its huge carbon inventory, the marine carbon cycle represents the most important component in this respect. Numerous findings suggest that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in terms of oceanic CO2 uptake. However, an exact quantification of such fluxes of material is hard to achieve for large areas, not least on account of the inaccessibility of this remote region. In particular, there exist so far only few accurate data for benthic carbon fluxes. The latter can be derived from high resolution pore water oxygen profiles, as one possible method. However the ex situ flux determinations carried out on sediment cores, tend to suffer from temperature and pressure artefacts. Alternatively, oxygen microprofiles can be measured in situ, i.e. at the seafloor. Until now, no such data have been published for the Southern Ocean. During the Antarctic Expedition ANT-XXI/4, within the framework of this thesis, in situ and ex situ oxygen profiles were measured and used to derive benthic organic carbon fluxes. Having both types of measurements from the same locations, it was possible to establish a depth-related correction function which was applied subsequently to revise published and additional unpublished carbon fluxes to the seafloor. This resulted in a consistent data base of benthic carbon inputs covering many important sub-regions of the Southern Ocean including the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (southern Pacific), Scotia and Weddell Seas (southern South Atlantic) as well as the Crozet Basin (southern Indian Ocean). Including additional locations on the Antarctic Shelf, there are now 134 new and revised measurement locations, covering almost 180° of the Southern Ocean, for which benthic organic carbon fluxes and sedimentary oxygen penetration depth values are available. Further, benthic carbon fluxes were empirically related to dominant diatom distributions in surface sediments as well as to long-term remotely sensed chlorophyll-a estimates. The comparison of these results with benthic carbon fluxes of the entire Atlantic Ocean reveals significantly higher export efficiencies for the Southern Ocean than have previously been assumed, especially for the area of the opal belt.

Datasets for the graphs of the paper (Fig. 2 to Fig. 7)

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Basic measurements of radiation from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) in the years 1992 to 2012, reference list of 6378 datasets

In the framework of the global energy balance, the radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are now accurately quantified from new satellite missions. Much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites. In addition to satellite observations, here we make extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the global energy balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combine these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for the 5th IPCC assessment report to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean downward surface solar and thermal radiation values near 185 and 342 Wm**-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations. Combined with an estimated surface absorbed solar radiation and thermal emission of 161 Wm**-2 and 397 Wm**-2, respectively, this leaves 106 Wm**-2 of surface net radiation available for distribution amongst the non-radiative surface energy balance components. The climate models overestimate the downward solar and underestimate the downward thermal radiation, thereby simulating nevertheless an adequate global mean surface net radiation by error compensation. This also suggests that, globally, the simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, around 20 and 85 Wm**-2 on average, state realistic values. The findings of this study are compiled into a new global energy balance diagram, which may be able to reconcile currently disputed inconsistencies between energy and water cycle estimates.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification during incubation experiments with Mytilus edulis and Grassostrea gigas, 2006

Ocean acidification resulting from human emissions of carbon dioxide has already lowered and will further lower surface ocean pH. The consequent decrease in calcium carbonate saturation potentially threatens calcareous marine organisms. Here, we demonstrate that the calcification rates of the edible mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) decline linearly with increasing pCO2. Mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25 and 10%, respectively, by the end of the century, following the IPCC IS92a scenario (?740 ppmv in 2100). Moreover, mussels dissolve at pCO2 values exceeding a threshold value of ?1800 ppmv. As these two species are important ecosystem engineers in coastal ecosystems and represent a large part of worldwide aquaculture production, the predicted decrease of calcification in response to ocean acidification will probably have an impact on coastal biodiversity and ecosystem functioning as well as potentially lead to significant economic loss.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with a coral community, 2008

Ocean acidification represents a key threat to coral reefs by reducing the calcification rate of framework builders. In addition, acidification is likely to affect the relationship between corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates and the productivity of this association. However, little is known about how acidification impacts on the physiology of reef builders and how acidification interacts with warming. Here, we report on an 8-week study that compared bleaching, productivity, and calcification responses of crustose coralline algae (CCA) and branching (Acropora) and massive (Porites) coral species in response to acidification and warming. Using a 30-tank experimental system, we manipulated CO2 levels to simulate doubling and three- to fourfold increases [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection categories IV and VI] relative to present-day levels under cool and warm scenarios. Results indicated that high CO2 is a bleaching agent for corals and CCA under high irradiance, acting synergistically with warming to lower thermal bleaching thresholds. We propose that CO2 induces bleaching via its impact on photoprotective mechanisms of the photosystems. Overall, acidification impacted more strongly on bleaching and productivity than on calcification. Interestingly, the intermediate, warm CO2 scenario led to a 30% increase in productivity in Acropora, whereas high CO2 lead to zero productivity in both corals. CCA were most sensitive to acidification, with high CO2 leading to negative productivity and high rates of net dissolution. Our findings suggest that sensitive reef-building species such as CCA may be pushed beyond their thresholds for growth and survival within the next few decades whereas corals will show delayed and mixed responses.

Information from Paleoclimate Archives

Compilation of figure recipes for all figures of Chapter 5 of IPCC Working Group I, Fifth Assessment Report. In addition to figure captions, figure recipes are supposed to serve as detailed figure creation info. If not publicly available elsewhere, processed data underlying the respective figures are also provided here.