Accumulation rate and stable oxygen isotope ratios of the ice cores from the North Greenland Traverse

We present for the first time all 12 d18O records obtained from ice cores drilled in the framework of the North Greenland Traverse (NGT) between 1993 and 1995 in northern Greenland. The cores cover an area of 680 km × 317 km, 10 % of the Greenland ice sheet. Depending on core length (100-175 m) and accumulation rate (90-200 kg/m**2/a) the single records reflect an isotope-temperature history over the last 500-1100 years. Lowest d18O mean values occur north of the summit and east of the main divide as a consequence of Greenland's topography. In general, ice cores drilled on the main ice divide show different results than those drilled east of the main ice divide that might be influenced by secondary regional moisture sources. A stack of all NGT records and the NGRIP record is presented with improved signal-to-noise ratio. Compared to single records, this stack represents the mean d18O signal for northern Greenland that is interpreted as proxy for temperature. Our northern Greenland d18O stack indicates distinctly enriched d18O values during medieval times, about AD 1420 ± 20 and from AD 1870 onwards. The period between AD 1420 and AD 1850 has depleted d18O values compared to the average for the entire millennium and represents the Little Ice Age. The d18O values of the 20th century are comparable to the medieval period but are lower than that about AD 1420.

Abundance of phytoplankton, heterotrophic nanoflagellates and bacteria through the water column at time series station L4 in the Western English Channel. 2007-2011

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Tab. 1: Age of biogene material from the ice margin, Kofoed-Hansen Bræ and Storstrømmen

Early Holocene recession of the ice cover over Germania Land in North-East Greenland 7.5 ka B.P. brought the Inland Ice margin back to a position close to the present. Continued recession after that time lead to the formation of a "Storstrømmen Sound" which separated Germania Land from mainland Greenland in the period from about 6 to 1 ka B.P. The present filling of the approximately 100 km long sound by the glaciers of Storstrømmen and Kofoed-Hansen Bræ must therefore have taken place during the Little lce Age. In an archaeological sense this implies deterioration of the living conditions of Neo-Eskimos compared to those of Palaeo-Eskimos. The neoglacial re-formation and present existence of the glaciers as a Little Ice Age relict may imply a present-day instability in their dynamics, as demonstrated by the pulsations (surge-like behaviour) in the last part of the 20th century. An earlier Little Ice Age advance might possibly have had the same amplitude as that documented from the 20th century but its exact age and character is not known. The glacio-isostatic response of the earth's crust to the variations in the Holocene glacier load implies a relatively slow and slight emergence and subsequent submergence. The shift from emergence to submergence must have taken place between about 2 and 1 ka B.P.

Late Holocene pollen and organic walled dinoflagellate cysts analyses of sedimet cores from the Java Sea

The pollen, spore and organic walled dinoflagelletas cyst associations of two marine sediment cores from the Java Sea off the mouths of Jelai River (South Kalimantan) and Solo River (East Java) reflect environment and vegetation changes during the last ca 3500 years in the region. A decline in primary forest taxa (e.g. Agathis, Allophylus, Dacrycarpus, Dacrydium, Dipterocarpaceae, Phyllocladus, and Podocarpus) suggest that the major change in vegetation is caused by the forest canopy opening that can be related to human activity. The successively increase of pollen of pioneer canopy and herb taxa (e.g. Acalypha, Ficus, Macaranga/Mallotus, Trema, Pandanus) indicate the development of a secondary vegetation. In Java these changes started much earlier (ca at 2950 cal yr BP) then in Kalimantan (ca at 910 cal yr BP) and seem to be more severe. Changes in the marine realm, reflected by the dinoflagellate cyst association correspond to changes in vegetation on land. They reflect a gradual change from relatively well ventilated to more hypoxic bottom/pore water conditions in a more eutrophic environment. Near the coast of Java, the shift of the water trophic status took place between ca 820 and 500 cal yrs BP, while near the coast of Kalimantan it occurred as late as at the beginning of the 20th century. We observe an increasing amount of the cyst of Polykrikos schwarzii, cyst of P. kofoidii, Lingulodinium machaerophorum, Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus and Selenopemphix nephroides at times of secondary vegetation development on land, suggesting that these species react strongly on human induced changes in the marine environment, probably related to increased pollution and eutrophication.

Assessing the physiological responses of the gastropod Crepidula fornicata to predicted ocean acidification and warming

Organisms inhabiting coastal waters naturally experience diel and seasonal physico-chemical variations. According to various assumptions, coastal species are either considered to be highly tolerant to environmental changes or, conversely, living at the thresholds of their physiological performance. Therefore, these species are either more resistant or more sensitive, respectively, to ocean acidification and warming. Here, we focused on Crepidula fornicata, an invasive gastropod that colonized bays and estuaries on northwestern European coasts during the 20th century. Small (<3 cm in length) and large (>4.5 cm in length), sexually mature individuals of C. fornicata were raised for 6 months in three different pCO2 conditions (390 µatm, 750 µatm, and 1400 µatm) at four successive temperature levels (10°C, 13°C, 16°C, and 19°C). At each temperature level and in each pCO2 condition, we assessed the physiological rates of respiration, ammonia excretion, filtration and calcification on small and large individuals. Results show that, in general, temperature positively influenced respiration, excretion and filtration rates in both small and large individuals. Conversely, increasing pCO2 negatively affected calcification rates, leading to net dissolution in the most drastic pCO2 condition (1400 µatm) but did not affect the other physiological rates. Overall, our results indicate that C. fornicata can tolerate ocean acidification, particularly in the intermediate pCO2 scenario. Moreover, in this eurythermal species, moderate warming may play a buffering role in the future responses of organisms to ocean acidification.

(Table 1) Dominant species and total biomass of macrozoobenthos communities in the southwestern Kara Sea

The structure and distribution of the macrobenthic communities were studied in the southwestern Kara Sea. The material was collected in Baidaratskaya Bay in July 2007 and in a section running westward of the Yamal Peninsula in September 2007. The depths of the sampling stations ranged from 5 to 25 m in the Baidaratskaya Bay area and between 16 and 46 m in the Yamal section. A total of 212 benthic invertebrate species were recorded. In both areas, Bivalvia was the group with the highest biomass (54.88 g/m**2 in the Yamal section and 59.71 g/m**2 in the Baidaratskaya Bay area), while polychaetes were the group with the highest number of species (45 in the Yamal section and 64 the Baidaratskaya Bay area). Three major macrozoobenthic communities were recognized: the Astarte borealis community (20-46 m, the deepest sampling stations in both areas); the 'medium-depth' community (10-20 m, extremely mosaic, usually dominated by Serripes groenlandicus); and the Nephtys longosetosa community (depth smaller than 10 m, characterized by low biomass and the absence of large bivalves and echinoderms). The western Yamal shallow-water communities were shown to be generally similar to those of Baidaratskaya Bay. The comparison of these results with those of the benthos censuses performed in 1927-1945, 1975, and 1993 showed that the benthic communities in the southwestern Kara Sea remained relatively stable during the second half of the 20th century and the early 21st century.

On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.

Benthic foraminiferal record and age dating of sediment cores from the Gullmar Fjord at the west coast of Sweden

A high-resolution study of benthic foraminiferal assemblages was performed on a ca. eight metre long sediment core from Gullmar Fjord on the west coast of Sweden. The results of 210Pb- and AMS 14C-datings show that the record includes the two warmest climatic episodes of the last 1500 years: the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the recent warming of the 20th century. Both periods are known to be anomalously warm and associated with positive NAO winter indices. Benthic foraminiferal successions of both periods are compared in order to find faunal similarities and common denominators corresponding to past climate changes. During the MWP, Adercotryma glomerata, Cassidulina laevigata and Nonionella iridea dominated the assemblages. Judging from dominance of species sensitive to hypoxia and the highest faunal diversity for the last ca. 2400 years, the foraminiferal record of the MWP suggests an absence of severe low oxygen events. At the same time, faunas and d13C values both point to high primary productivity and/or increased input of terrestrial organic carbon into the fjord system during the Medieval Warm Period. Comparison of the MWP and recent warming revealed different trends in the faunal record. The thin-shelled foraminifer N. iridea was characteristic of the MWP, but became absent during the second half of the 20th century. The recent Skagerrak-Kattegat fauna was rare or absent during the MWP but established in Gullmar Fjord at the end of the Little Ice Age or in the early 1900s. Also, there are striking differences in the faunal diversity and absolute abundances of foraminifera between both periods. Changes in primary productivity, higher precipitation resulting in intensified land runoff, different oxygen regimes or even changes in the fjord's trophic status are discussed as possible causes of these faunal differences.

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

Results of modelled Arctic river discharge trends since 7 ka BP

The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2 % increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5 % for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gases indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6 %. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5 %, the North American discharges by up to 8.4 %. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

Comparison of accumulation rates and stable isotope ratios

Since 1979/80, glaciological studies have been carried out at Ekströmisen, Antarctica, including accumulation-stake measurements, snow-pit and shallow-firn-core studies. Snowstratigraphy, chemical properties and stable-isotope ratios (d18O) were investigated. This study focuses on three cores taken between 1982 and 1998. The 1998 core was dated using dielectric profiling, d18O profiles and stake measurements. Accumulation rates showhigh interannual and spatial variability due to the extreme wind influence. No significant trend was found for the last 50 years; during the first half of the 20th century, accumulation decreased. The high spatial and interannual variability, however, means that trends must be interpreted with care. In spite of the highly irregular accumulation distribution, stable-isotope ratios show little spatial variability. The mean annual d18O values of cores B04 and FB0198 agree fairly well for the time period 1955-82 covered by both cores. d18O values have increased during most of the 20th century; since the late 1980s a decrease is observed. This change is not related to air temperature, since mean annual air temperatures at Neumayer show no significant trend over the last two decades.

Nutrient concentration profiles from time series stations E1 and L4 in the western English Channel from 2000 to 2010

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Strontium measurements and sea surface temperatures of corals from Xisha Island, South China Sea

A Porites coral collected from Xisha Island, South China Sea, represents a skeleton secreted in the period from 1906 to 1994. The Sr contents of the coral vary linearly with the instrument-measured sea-surface temperature (SST), giving a Sr thermometer: SST = -1.9658 x Sr + 193.26. The reconstructed SST data show that the late 20th century was warmer (about 1°C) than the early 20th century and that two cooling (1915/1916 and 1947/1948) and three warming (1935/1936, 1960/1961, and 1976/1977) shifts occurred in the century. The temperature shifts are more pronounced for winters, implying a close effect of the west Pacific warm pool and Asian monsoon and suggesting that the former is a primary force controlling the climatic system of the region. Results of this study and previously published data indicate a close link of temperature shifts between the boreal summer and the austral winter or the boreal winter and the austral summer. The annual SST anomalies in the South China Sea and the South Pacific reveal the existence of harmonic but opposite SST variations between the two regions. On the decadal scale the comparative annual SST anomalies for the South China Sea and for the equatorial west Pacific show a similarity in temperature variations, implying that the South China Sea climate is coherent with climatic regime of the tropical west Pacific.

Datasets for the graphs of the paper (Fig. 2 to Fig. 7)

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.