Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Age determinations from Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia

A wide variety of environmental records is necessary for analysing and understanding the complex Late Quaternary dynamics of permafrost-dominated Arctic landscapes. A NE Siberian periglacial key region was studied in detail using sediment records, remote sensing data, and terrain modelling, all incorporated in a geographical information system (GIS). The study area consists of the Bykovsky Peninsula and the adjacent Khorogor Valley in the Kharaulakh Ridge situated a few kilometres southeast of the Lena Delta. In this study a comprehensive cryolithological database containing information from 176 sites was compiled. The information from these sites is based on the review of previously published borehole data, outcrop profiles, surface samples, and our own field data. These archives cover depositional records of three periods: from Pliocene to Early Pleistocene, the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The main sediment sequences on the Bykovsky Peninsula consist of up to 50 m thick ice-rich permafrost deposits (Ice Complex) that were accumulated during the Late Pleistocene. They were formed as a result of nival processes around extensive snowfields in the Kharaulakh Ridge, slope processes in these mountains (such as in the Khorogor Valley), and alluvial/proluvial sedimentation in a flat accumulation plain dominated by polygonal tundra in the mountain foreland (Bykovsky Peninsula). During the early to middle Holocene warming, a general landscape transformation occurred from an extensive Late Pleistocene accumulation plain to a strongly thermokarst-dominated relief dissected by numerous depressions. Thermokarst subsidence had an enormous influence on the periglacial hydrological patterns, the sediment deposition, and on the composition and distribution of habitats. Climate deterioration, lake drainage, and talik refreezing occurred during the middle to late Holocene. The investigated region was reached by the post-glacial sea level rise during the middle Holocene, triggering thermo-abrasion of ice-rich coasts and the marine inundation of thermokarst depressions.

Biostratigraphy and Sr isotopic composition of sediments from DSDP Legs 12, 14, 15, 17, 20-22, and 30

We present the data used to construct the Cenozoic and Cretaceous portion of the Phanerozoic curve of seawater 87Sr/86Sr that had been given in summary form by W.H. Burke co-workers. All Cenozoic samples (128) and 22 Cretaceous samples are foram-nannofossil oozes and limestones from DSDP cores distributed among 13 sites in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the Caribbean Sea. Non-DSDP Cretaceous samples (126) include limestone, anhydrite and phosphate samples from North America, Europe and Asia. Determination of the 87Sr/86Sr value of seawater at particular times in the past is based on comparison of ratios derived from coeval marine samples from widely separated geographic areas. These samples are characterized by a wide variety of diagenetic and burial histories. The large size and cosmopolitan nature of the data set decreases the likelihood that, among coeval data, systematic error has been introduced by a similar pattern of diagenetic alteration of the ratios. There is good clustering of data points throughout the Cenozoic and Cretaceous curve. The consistency of data is illustrated by Cenozoic and Cretaceous data plots that include a separate symbol for each DSDP site and non-DSDP sample location. More than 98% of the data points are enclosed by upper and lower lines that define a narrow band. For any given time, the correct seawater ratio probably lies within this band. A line drawn within the band represents our estimate of the actual seawater ratio as a function of time. The general configuration of the Cenozoic and Cretaceous curve appears to be strongly influenced by the history of plate interactions and sea-floor spreading. Specific rises and falls in the 87Sr/86Sr of seawater, however, may be caused by a variety of factors such as variation in lithologic composition of the crust exposed to weathering, configuration and topographic relief of continents, volcanic activity, rate of sea-floor spreading, extent of continental inundation by epeiric seas, and variations in both climate and paleooceanographic conditions. Many or all of these factors are probably related to global tectonic processes, yet their combined effect on the temporal variation of seawater 87Sr/86Sr can complicate a direct platetectonic interpretation for portions of the seawater curve.

Table 1 : AMS-14C data used for the reconstruction of the Wismar Bay shoreline displacement curve

The Baltic coast of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is located in the transition Zone between the region of Fennoscandian Uplift and the Central European Depression. In relation to the eustatic sea-level rise, the northeast coast shows a slower inundation, while for the southwestern area a faster transgression is indicated, which can be attributed to crustal movements. To determine the spatial and temporal differences since the onset of the Littorina Transgression, three relative sea-level curves have been established along a transect parallel to the gradient of upliftlsubsidence. The Wismar Bay area is one endpoint of the transect demonstrating today 10 Abb., 2 Tab. a relative sea-level rise of 1.4 mm/a. To determine the relative sea-level curve for the Wismar Bay, two sites were investigated on Rustwerder Spit (Poel) and Redentin. They provided reliable depth-age data, while the stratigraphy was additionally supported by lithological/geochemical, pollen, diatom and macrofossil data. Additional evidence was provided by archaeological submarine surveys and excavations. Comparing the new relative sea-level curve with a curve from the Vorpommern coast, it can be shown that for the period from 4000 cal BC until present, the differences between the two curves are caused by a constant neotectonic movement, while for the older periods an increasing isostatic component must be taken into account.

Characteristics of ice-rafted pebbles from ODP Leg 178 holes

Pebbles (>10 mm) sampled from three drill sites on the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 were classified by shape and roundness. In addition, pebble lithology and surface texture were visually identified. To increase the pebble sample number to 331, three sites that were drilled 94 to 213 km from the continental shelf edge were integrated into the data set using magnetostratigraphy for core correlation. Pebbles were compared in three groups defined by the same stratigraphic intervals at each site: 3.1-2.2 Ma (late Pliocene), 2.2-0.76 Ma (late Pliocene-late Pleistocene), and 0.76 Ma to the Holocene. Pebble lithologies originate from sources on the Antarctic Peninsula margin. Most pebbles are metamorphic and sedimentary pebbles are rare (<6%), whereas mafic volcanic and intrusive igneous lithologies increase in abundance upsection. Pebbles from 3.1 to 0.76 Ma, plotted on sphericity-roundness diagrams, indicate original transport as basal and supraglacial/englacial debris. Pebbles are abundant and of diverse lithology. From 0.76 Ma to the present, the number of pebbles is low and their shape characteristics indicate they originated as basal debris. Observed changes in ice-rafted pebbles can be explained by growth of an ice sheet and inundation of the Antarctic Peninsula topography by ice ~0.76 Ma. Prior to this, outlet and valley glaciers transported debris at high levels within and at the base of the ice. The mass accumulation rate of sand fluctuates and includes rounded quartz grains. Ice-sheet growth may have been accompanied by overall cooling from subpolar to polar glacial regimes, which halted meltwater production and enhanced the growth of ice shelves, which consequently reduced sediment supply to icebergs.

Satellite-based daily lake areas in the Yangtze Basin, China, 2000-2011

The Yangtze River Basin downstream of China's Three Gorges Dam (TGD) (thereafter referred to as "downstream" basin) hosts the largest cluster of freshwater lakes in East Asia. These lakes are crucial water stocks to local biophysical environments and socioeconomic development. Existing studies document that individual lakes in this region have recently experienced dramatic changes under the context of enduring meteorological drought, continuous population growth, and extensive water regulation since TGD's initial impoundment (i.e., June, 2003). However, spatial and temporal patterns of lake dynamics across the complete downstream Yangtze basin remain poorly characterized. Using daily MODIS imagery and an advanced thematic mapping scheme, this study presents a comprehensive monitoring of area dynamics in the downstream lake system at a 10-day temporal resolution during 2000-2011. The studied lakes constitute ~76% (~11,400 km**2) of the total downstream lake area, including the entire +70 major lakes larger than 20 km**2. The results reveal a decadal net decline in lake inundation area across the downstream Yangtze Basin, with a cumulative decrease of 849 km**2 or 7.4% from 2000 to 2011. Despite an excessive precipitation anomaly in the year 2010, the decreasing trend was tested significant in all seasons. The most substantial decrease in the post-TGD period appears in fall (1.1%/yr), which intriguingly coincides with the TGD water storage season. Regional lake dynamics exhibit contrasting spatial patterns, manifested as evident decrease and increase of aggregated lake areas respectively within and beyond the Yangtze Plain. This contrast suggests a marked vulnerability of lakes in the Yangtze Plain, to not only local meteorological variability but also intensified human water regulations from both the upstream Yangtze main stem (e.g., the TGD) and tributaries (e.g., lakes/reservoirs beyond the Yangtze Plain). The produced lake mapping result and derived lake area dynamics across the downstream Yangtze Basin provides a crucial monitoring basis for continuous investigations of changing mechanisms in the Yangtze lake system.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

Survey on economic assessment of the improvement of the quality of environment: the case of the fight against floods in Cotonou (Benin Living Standard Survey)

This study aims to analyze households' attitude toward flood risk in Cotonou in the sense to identify whether they are willing or not to leave the flood-prone zones. Moreover, the attitudes toward the management of wastes and dirty water are analyzed. The data used in this study were obtained from two sources: the survey implemented during March 2011 on one hundred and fifty randomly selected households living in flood-prone areas of Cotonou, and Benin Living Standard Survey of 2006 (Part relative to Cotonou on 1,586 households). Moreover, climate data were used in this study. Multinomial probability model is used for the econometric analysis of the attitude toward flood risk. While the attitudes toward the management of wastes and dirty water are analyzed through a simple logit. The results show that 55.3% of households agreed to go elsewhere while 44.7% refused [we are better-off here (10.67%), due to the proximity of the activities (19.33), the best way is to build infrastructures that will protect against flood and family house (14.67%)]. The authorities have to rethink an alternative policy to what they have been doing such as building socio-economic houses outside Cotonou and propose to the households that are living the areas prone to inundation. Moreover, access to formal education has to be reinforced.

Pollen analysis of modern mangrove systems

Three sediment cores from the Bragança Peninsula located in the coastal region in the north-eastern portion of Pará State have been studied by pollen analysis to reconstruct Holocene environmental changes and dynamics of the mangrove ecosystem. The cores were taken from an Avicennia forest (Bosque de Avicennia (BDA)), a salt marsh area (Campo Salgado (CS)) and a Rhizophora dominated area (Furo do Chato). Pollen traps were installed in five different areas of the peninsula to study modern pollen deposition. Nine accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates provide time control and show that sediment deposits accumulated relatively undisturbed. Mangrove vegetation started to develop at different times at the three sites: at 5120 14C yr BP at the CS site, at 2170 14C yr BP at the BDA site and at 1440 14C yr BP at the FDC site. Since mid Holocene times, the mangroves covered even the most elevated area on the peninsula, which is today a salt marsh, suggesting somewhat higher relative sea-levels. The pollen concentration in relatively undisturbed deposits seems to be an indicator for the frequency of inundation. The tidal inundation frequency decreased, probably related to lower sea-levels, during the late Holocene around 1770 14C yr BP at BDA, around 910 14C yr BP at FDC and around 750 14C yr BP at CS. The change from a mangrove ecosystem to a salt marsh on the higher elevation, around 420 14C yr BP is probably natural and not due to an anthropogenic impact. Modern pollen rain from different mangrove types show different ratios between Rhizophora and Avicennia pollen, which can be used to reconstruct past composition of the mangrove. In spite of bioturbation and especially tidal inundation, which change the local pollen deposition within the mangrove zone, past mangrove dynamics can be reconstructed. The pollen record for BDA indicates a mixed Rhizophora/Avicennia mangrove vegetation between 2170 and 1770 14C yr BP. Later Rhizophora trees became more frequent and since ca. 200 14C yr BP Avicennia dominated in the forest.

(Table 1) Radiocarbon and OSL ages of sediment cores C1-C5 drilled during the COAST expedition to Cape Mamontov Klyk in April 2005

The palaeoenvironmental development of the western Laptev Sea is understood primarily from investigations of exposed cliffs and surface sediment cores from the shelf. In 2005, a core transect was drilled between the Taymyr Peninsula and the Lena Delta, an area that was part of the westernmost region of the non-glaciated Beringian landmass during the late Quaternary. The transect of five cores, one terrestrial and four marine, taken near Cape Mamontov Klyk reached 12 km offshore and 77 m below sea level. A multiproxy approach combined cryolithological, sedimentological, geochronological (14C-AMS, OSL on quartz, IR-OSL on feldspars) and palaeoecological (pollen, diatoms) methods. Our interpretation of the proxies focuses on landscape history and the transition of terrestrial into subsea permafrost. Marine interglacial deposits overlain by relict terrestrial permafrost within the same offshore core were encountered in the western Laptev Sea. Moreover, the marine interglacial deposits lay unexpectedly deep at 64 m below modern sea level 12 km from the current coastline, while no marine deposits were encountered onshore. This implies that the position of the Eemian coastline presumably was similar to today's. The landscape reconstruction suggests Eemian coastal lagoons and thermokarst lakes, followed by Early to Middle Weichselian fluvially dominated terrestrial deposition. During the Late Weichselian, this fluvial landscape was transformed into a poorly drained accumulation plain, characterized by widespread and broad ice-wedge polygons. Finally, the shelf plain was flooded by the sea during the Holocene, resulting in the inundation and degradation of terrestrial permafrost and its transformation into subsea permafrost.

Characterization of the defined MDC types and compilation of MDC initiation times (excel-file 19 kB)

Mud accumulates on continental shelves under a variety of environmental conditions and results in a diverse formation of mud depocenters (MDCs). Their three-dimensional architectures have been in the focus of several recent studies. Due to some terminological confusion concerning MDCs, the present study sets out to define eight individual MDC types in terms of surface sediment distribution and internal geometry. Under conditions of substantial sediment supply, prodeltas (distal zones off river deltas; triangular sheets), subaqueous deltas (disconnected from deltas by strong normal-to-shore currents; wedge-like clinoforms), and mud patches (scattered distribution) and mud blankets (widespread covers) are formed. Forced by hydrodynamic conditions, mud belts in the strict sense (detached from source; elongated bodies), and shallow-water contourite drifts (detached from source; growing normal to prevailing current direction; triangular clinoforms) develop. Controlled by local morphology, mud entrapments (in depressions, behind morphological steps) and mud wedges (triangular clinoforms growing in flow direction) are deposited. Shelf mud deposition took place (1) during early outer-shelf drowning (~14 ka), (2) after inner-shelf inundation to maximum flooding (9.5-6.5 ka), and (3) in sub-recent times (<2 ka). Subsequent expansion may be (1) concentric, in cases where the depocenter formed near the fluvial source, (2) uni-directional, extending along advective current transport paths, and (3) progradational, forming clinoforms that grow either parallel or normal to the bottom current direction. Classical mud belts may be initiated around defined nuclei, the remote sites of which are determined by seafloor morphology rather than the location of the source. From a stratigraphic perspective, mud depocenters coincide with sea-level highstand-related, shelf-wide condensed sections. They often show a conformable succession from transgressive to highstand systems tract stages.

Pollen and spore counts of sediment core GeoB12624

In tropical eastern Africa, vegetation distribution is largely controlled by regional hydrology, which has varied over the past 20 000 years. Therefore, accurate reconstructions of past vegetation and hydrological changes are crucial for a better understanding of climate variability in the tropical southeastern African region. We present high-resolution pollen records from a marine sediment core recovered offshore of the Rufiji River delta. Our data document significant shifts in pollen assemblages during the last deglaciation, identifying, through changes in both upland and lowland vegetation, specific responses of plant communities to atmospheric (precipitation) and coastal (coastal dynamics and sea-level changes) alterations. Specifically, arid conditions reflected by a maximum pollen representation of dry and open vegetation occurred during the Northern Hemisphere cold Heinrich event 1 (H1), suggesting that the expansion of drier upland vegetation was synchronous with cold Northern Hemisphere conditions. This arid period is followed by an interval in which forest and humid woodlands expanded, indicating a hydrologic shift towards more humid conditions. Droughts during H1 and the shift to humid conditions around 14.8 kyr BP in the uplands are consistent with latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations. Additionally, our results show that the lowland vegetation, consisting of well-developed salt marshes and mangroves in a successional pattern typical for vegetation occurring in intertidal habitats, has responded mainly to local coastal dynamics related to marine inundation frequencies and soil salinity in the Rufiji Delta as well as to the local moisture availability. Lowland vegetation shows a substantial expansion of mangrove trees after ~ 14.8 kyr BP, suggesting an increased moisture availability and river runoff in the coastal area. The results of this study highlight the decoupled climatic and environmental processes to which the vegetation in the uplands and the Rufiji Delta has responded during the last deglaciation.

Age determination of sediment cores from the Laptev Sea

To establish a chronology of the Holocene transgression in Arctic Siberia, a total of 14 sediment cores from the Laptev Sea continental slope and shelf were studied covering the water depth range between 983 and 21 m. The age models of the cores were derived from 119 radiocarbon datings, which were all analyzed on marine biogenic calcite (mainly bivalve shells). The oldest shell sample was found at the slope and dates back to about 15.3 cal. ka, indicating that the time interval investigated starts prior to the onset of the meltwater pulse 1A (~14.2 cal. ka) when global sea-level rose dramatically. The inundation history was reconstructed mainly on the basis of major changes in average sedimentation rates (ASR), but also other sedimentological parameters were incorporated. A diachronous reduction in ASR from the outer to the inner shelf region is recognized, which was related to the southward migration of the coastline as the primary sediment source. We estimate that the flooding of the 50-, 43-, and 31-m isobaths was completed by approximately 11.1, 9.8, and 8.9 cal. ka, and that Holocene sea-level highstand was approached near 5 cal. ka. Between these time intervals, sea level in the Laptev Sea rose by 5.4, 13.3, and 7.9 mm/year, respectively.