Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Structural and functional vulnerability to elevated pCO2 in marine benthic communities

The effect of elevated pCO2/low pH on marine invertebrate benthic biodiversity, community structure and selected functional responses which underpin ecosystem services (such as community production and calcification) was tested in a medium-term (30 days) mesocosm experiment in June 2010. Standardised intertidal macrobenthic communities, collected (50.3567°N, 4.1277°W) using artificial substrate units (ASUs), were exposed to one of seven pH treatments (8.05, 7.8. 7.6, 7.4, 7.2, 6.8 and 6.0). Community net calcification/dissolution rates, as well as changes in biomass, community structure and diversity, were measured at the end of the experimental period. Communities showed significant changes in structure and reduced diversity in response to reduced pH: shifting from a community dominated by calcareous organisms to one dominated by non-calcareous organisms around either pH 7.2 (number of individuals and species) or pH 7.8 (biomass). These results were supported by a reduced total weight of CaCO3 structures in all major taxa at lowered pH and a switch from net calcification to net dissolution around pH 7.4 (Omega calc = 0.78, Omega ara = 0.5). Overall community soft tissue biomass did not change with pH and high mortality was observed only at pH 6.0, although molluscs and arthropods showed significant decreases in soft tissue. This study supports and refines previous findings on how elevated pCO2 can induce changes in marine biodiversity, underlined by differential vulnerability of different phyla. In addition, it shows significant elevated pCO2-/low pH-dependent changes in fundamental community functional responses underpinning changes in ecosystem services.