Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Conflicting effects of predator cue and ocean acidification on the mussel Mytilus coruscus byssus production

Understanding the impact of ocean acidification and warming on communities and ecosystems is a researcher priority. This can only be achieved through a combination of experimental and field approaches that would allow developing a mechanistic understanding of impacts across level of biological organizations. Surprisingly, most published studies are still focusing on single species responses with little consideration for interspecific interactions. In this study, the impacts of a 3 days exposure to three parameters (temperature, pH, and presence/absence of the predator cue of the crab Charybdis japonica) and their interactions on an ecologically important endpoint were evaluated: the byssus production of the mussel Mytilus coruscus. Tested temperatures (25°C and 30°C) were within the present range of natural variability whereas pH (8.1, 7.7, and 7.4) covered present as well as near-future natural variability. As expected, the presence of the crab cue induced an antipredator response in Mytilus coruscus (significant 10% increase in byssus secretion rate, 22% increase in frequency of shed byssus, and 30% longer byssus). Decreased pH but not temperature had a significant negative impact on the same endpoints (up to a 17% decrease in byssus secretion rate, 40% decrease in frequency of shed byssus, and 10% shorter byssus at pH 7.3 as compared with pH 8.1) with no significant interactions between the three tested parameters. In this study, it has been hypothesized that pH and predator cue have different modes of action and lead to conflicting functional responses (escape response versus stronger attachment). Functional consequences for ecosystem dynamics still need to be investigated.

Short- and long-term conditioning of a temperate marine diatom community to acidification and warming

Ocean acidification and greenhouse warming will interactively influence competitive success of key phytoplankton groups such as diatoms, but how long-term responses to global change will affect community structure is unknown. We incubated a mixed natural diatom community from coastal New Zealand waters in a short-term (two-week) incubation experiment using a factorial matrix of warming and/or elevated pCO2 and measured effects on community structure. We then isolated the dominant diatoms in clonal cultures and conditioned them for 1 year under the same temperature and pCO2 conditions from which they were isolated, in order to allow for extended selection or acclimation by these abiotic environmental change factors in the absence of interspecific interactions. These conditioned isolates were then recombined into 'artificial' communities modelled after the original natural assemblage and allowed to compete under conditions identical to those in the short-term natural community experiment. In general, the resulting structure of both the unconditioned natural community and conditioned 'artificial' community experiments was similar, despite differences such as the loss of two species in the latter. pCO2 and temperature had both individual and interactive effects on community structure, but temperature was more influential, as warming significantly reduced species richness. In this case, our short-term manipulative experiment with a mixed natural assemblage spanning weeks served as a reasonable proxy to predict the effects of global change forcing on diatom community structure after the component species were conditioned in isolation over an extended timescale. Future studies will be required to assess whether or not this is also the case for other types of algal communities from other marine regimes.