An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Simulation Model of Benthic Antarctic Assemblages (SIMBAA), link to PC-executable

SIMBAA is a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model. It was developed to analyse the response of populations of Antarctic benthic species and their diversity to iceberg scouring. This disturbance is causing a high local mortality providing potential space for new colonisation. Traits can be attributed to model species, e.g. in terms of reproduction, dispersal, and life span. Physical disturbances can be designed in space and time, e.g. in terms of size, shape, and frequency. Environmental heterogeneity can be considered by cell-specific capacities to host a certain number of individuals. When grid cells become empty (after a disturbance event or due to natural mortality of of an individual), a lottery decides which individual from which species stored in a pool of candidates (for this cell) will recruit in that cell. After a defined period the individuals become mature and their offspring are dispersed and stored in the pool of candidates. The biological parameters and disturbance regimes decide on how long an individual lives. Temporal development of single populations of species as well as Shannon diversity are depicted in the main window graphically and primary values are listed. Examples for simulations can be loaded and saved as sgf-files. The results are also shown in an additional window in a dimensionless area with 50 x 50 cells, which contain single individuals depicted as circles; their colour indicates the assignment to the self-designed model species and the size represents their age. Dominant species per cell and disturbed areas can also be depicted. Output of simulation runs can be saved as images, which can be assembled to video-clips by standard computer programs (see GIF-examples of which "Demo 1" represents the response of the Antarctic benthos to iceberg scouring and "Demo 2" represents a simulation of a deep-sea benthic habitat).

(Table 1) Stage of the lemming cycle and nesting parameters of the greater snow geese between 1996-2005, Bylot Island

Resource pulses are common in various ecosystems and often have large impacts on ecosystem functioning. Many animals hoard food during resource pulses, yet how this behaviour affects pulse diffusion through trophic levels is poorly known because of a lack of individual-based studies. Our objective was to examine how the hoarding behaviour of arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) preying on a seasonal pulsed resource (goose eggs) was affected by annual and seasonal changes in resource availability. We monitored foraging behaviour of foxes in a greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlanticus) colony during 8 nesting seasons that covered 2 lemming cycles. The number of goose eggs taken and cached per hour by foxes declined 6-fold from laying to hatching, while the proportion of eggs cached remained constant. In contrast, the proportion of eggs cached by foxes fluctuated in response to the annual lemming cycle independently of the seasonal pulse of goose eggs. Foxes cached the majority of eggs taken (> 90%) when lemming abundance was high or moderate but only 40% during the low phase of the cycle. This likely occurred because foxes consumed a greater proportion of goose eggs to fulfill their energy requirement at low lemming abundance. Our study clearly illustrates a behavioural mechanism that extends the energetic benefits of a resource pulse. The hoarding behaviour of the main predator enhances the allochthonous nutrients input brought by migrating birds from the south into the arctic terrestrial ecosystem. This could increase average predator density and promote indirect interactions among prey.

Stable isotope ratios of foraminifera and sea surface temperature estimation of sediment core W2804A-14

Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C (epsilon p) in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last ~255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic compostion of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon p, derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 (c e) based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon p and c e. The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon p versus c e data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon p is inversely related to c e. Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index UK 37. Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon p and 1/c e. These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon p most probably reflects significant variations in Delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from ~110 µatm during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to ~60 µatm during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p < 0.01) inverse correlations of Delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.