53 resultados para Hype Cycle Model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
We are investigating the late Holocene rise in CO2 by performing four experiments with the climate-carbon-cycle model CLIMBER2-LPJ. Apart from the deep sea sediments, important carbon cycle processes considered are carbon uptake or release by the vegetation, carbon uptake by peatlands, and CO 2 release due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3. Ice core data of atmospheric CO2 between 8 ka BP and preindustrial climate can only be reproduced if CO2 outgassing due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3 is considered. In this case the model displays an increase of nearly 20 ppmv CO2 between 8 ka BP and present day. Model configurations that do not contain this forcing show a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2. We can therefore explain the late Holocene rise in CO2 by invoking natural forcing factors only, and anthropogenic forcing is not required to understand preindustrial CO2 dynamics.
Resumo:
Production pathways of the prominent volatile organic halogen compound methyl iodide (CH3I) are not fully understood. Based on observations, production of CH3I via photochemical degradation of organic material or via phytoplankton production has been proposed. Additional insights could not be gained from correlations between observed biological and environmental variables or from biogeochemical modeling to identify unambiguously the source of methyl iodide. In this study, we aim to address this question of source mechanisms with a three-dimensional global ocean general circulation model including biogeochemistry (MPIOM-HAMOCC (MPIOM - Max Planck Institute Ocean Model HAMOCC - HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model)) by carrying out a series of sensitivity experiments. The simulated fields are compared with a newly available global data set. Simulated distribution patterns and emissions of CH3I differ largely for the two different production pathways. The evaluation of our model results with observations shows that, on the global scale, observed surface concentrations of CH3I can be best explained by the photochemical production pathway. Our results further emphasize that correlations between CH3I and abiotic or biotic factors do not necessarily provide meaningful insights concerning the source of origin. Overall, we find a net global annual CH3I air-sea flux that ranges between 70 and 260 Gg/yr. On the global scale, the ocean acts as a net source of methyl iodide for the atmosphere, though in some regions in boreal winter, fluxes are of the opposite direction (from the atmosphere to the ocean).
Resumo:
Measurements of the calcium isotopic composition (d44/40Ca) of planktonic foraminifera from the western equatorial Pacific and the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean show variations of about 0.6 per mil over the past 24 Myr. The stacked d44/40Ca record of Globigerinoides trilobus and Globigerina bulloides indicates a minimum in d44/40Casw (seawater calcium) at 15 to 16 Ma and a subsequent general increase toward the present, interrupted by a second minimum at 3 to 5 Ma. Applying a coupled calcium/carbon cycle model, we find two scenarios that can explain a large portion of the observed d44/40Casw variations. In both cases, variations in the Ca input flux to the ocean without proportional changes in the carbonate flux are invoked. The first scenario increases the riverine calcium input to the ocean without a proportional increase of the carbonate flux. The second scenario generates an additional calcium flux from the exchange of Ca by Mg during dolomitization. In both cases the calcium flux variations lead to drastic changes in the seawater Ca concentrations on million year timescales. Our d44/40Casw record therefore indicates that the global calcium cycle may be much more dynamic than previously assumed.
Resumo:
Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations based on Antarctic ice cores reveal significant changes during the Holocene epoch, but the processes responsible for these changes in CO2 concentrations have not been unambiguously identified. Distinct characteristics in the carbon isotope signatures of the major carbon reservoirs (ocean, biosphere, sediments and atmosphere) constrain variations in the CO2 fluxes between those reservoirs. Here we present a highly resolved atmospheric d13C record for the past 11,000 years from measurements on atmospheric CO2 trapped in an Antarctic ice core. From mass-balance inverse model calculations performed with a simplified carbon cycle model, we show that the decrease in atmospheric CO2 of about 5 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) and the increase in d13C of about 0.25% during the early Holocene is most probably the result of a combination of carbon uptake of about 290 gigatonnes of carbon by the land biosphere and carbon release from the ocean in response to carbonate compensation of the terrestrial uptake during the termination of the last ice age. The 20 p.p.m.v. increase of atmospheric CO2 and the small decrease in d13C of about 0.05% during the later Holocene can mostly be explained by contributions from carbonate compensation of earlier land-biosphere uptake and coral reef formation, with only a minor contribution from a small decrease of the land-biosphere carbon inventory.
Resumo:
Remote sensing instruments are key players to map land surface temperature (LST) at large temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we present how we combine passive microwave and thermal infrared data to estimate LST during summer snow-free periods over northern high latitudes. The methodology is based on the SSM/I-SSMIS 37 GHz measurements at both vertical and horizontal polarizations on a 25 km × 25 km grid size. LST is retrieved from brightness temperatures introducing an empirical linear relationship between emissivities at both polarizations as described in Royer and Poirier (2010). This relationship is calibrated at pixel scale, using cloud-free independent LST data from MODIS instruments. The SSM/I-SSMIS and MODIS data are synchronized by fitting a diurnal cycle model built on skin temperature reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting temperature dataset is provided at 25 km scale and at an hourly time step during the ten-year analysis period (2000-2011). This new product was locally evaluated at five experimental sites of the EU-PAGE21 project against air temperature measurements and meteorological model reanalysis, and compared to the MODIS LST product at both local and circumpolar scale. The results giving a mean RMSE of the order of 2.2 K demonstrate the usefulness of the microwave product, which is unaffected by clouds as opposed to thermal infrared products and offers a better resolution compared to model reanalysis.
Resumo:
The standard paradigm that the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) represents a threshold event intrinsic to Earth's climate and connected in some way with long-term warming has influenced interpretations of the geochemical, climate, and biological perturbations that occurred at this event. As recent high-resolution data have demonstrated that the onset of the event was geologically instantaneous, attempts to account for the event solely through endogenous mechanisms have become increasingly strained. The rapid onset of the event indicates that it was triggered by a catastrophic event which we suggest was most likely a bolide impact. We discuss features of the PETM that require explanation and argue that mechanisms that have previously been proposed either cannot explain all of these features or would require some sort of high-energy trigger. A bolide impact could provide such a trigger and, in the event of a comet impact, could contribute directly to the shape of the carbon isotope curve. We introduce a carbon cycle model that would explain the PETM by global warming following a bolide impact, leading to the oxidation of terrestrial organic carbon stores built up during the late Paleocene. Our intention is to encourage other researchers to seriously consider an impact trigger for the PETM, especially in the absence of plausible alternative mechanisms.
Resumo:
We compare a compilation of 220 sediment core d13C data from the glacial Atlantic Ocean with three-dimensional ocean circulation simulations including a marine carbon cycle model. The carbon cycle model employs circulation fields which were derived from previous climate simulations. All sediment data have been thoroughly quality controlled, focusing on epibenthic foraminiferal species (such as Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi or Planulina ariminensis) to improve the comparability of model and sediment core carbon isotopes. The model captures the general d13C pattern indicated by present-day water column data and Late Holocene sediment cores but underestimates intermediate and deep water values in the South Atlantic. The best agreement with glacial reconstructions is obtained for a model scenario with an altered freshwater balance in the Southern Ocean that mimics enhanced northward sea ice export and melting away from the zone of sea ice production. This results in a shoaled and weakened North Atlantic Deep Water flow and intensified Antarctic Bottom Water export, hence confirming previous reconstructions from paleoproxy records. Moreover, the modeled abyssal ocean is very cold and very saline, which is in line with other proxy data evidence.
Resumo:
The marine nitrogen (N) inventory is thought to be stabilized by negative feedback mechanisms that reduce N inventory excursions relative to the more slowly overturning phosphorus inventory. Using a global biogeochemical ocean circulation model we show that negative feedbacks stabilizing the N inventory cannot persist if a close spatial association of N2 fixation and denitrification occurs. In our idealized model experiments, nitrogen deficient waters, generated by denitrification, stimulate local N2 fixation activity. But, because of stoichiometric constraints, the denitrification of newly fixed nitrogen leads to a net loss of N. This can enhance the N deficit, thereby triggering additional fixation in a vicious cycle, ultimately leading to a runaway N loss. To break this vicious cycle, and allow for stabilizing negative feedbacks to occur, inputs of new N need to be spatially decoupled from denitrification. Our idealized model experiments suggest that factors such as iron limitation or dissolved organic matter cycling can promote such decoupling and allow for negative feedbacks that stabilize the N inventory. Conversely, close spatial co-location of N2 fixation and denitrification could lead to net N loss.
Resumo:
We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 atm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.
Resumo:
High-resolution records of glacial-interglacial variations in biogenic carbonate, opal, and detritus (derived from non-destructive core log measurements of density, P-wave velocity and color; r >= 0.9) from 15 sediment sites in the eastern equatorial (sampling resolution is ~1 kyr) clear response to eccentricity and precession forcing. For the Peru Basin, we generate a high-resolution (21 kyr increment) orbitally-based chronology for the last 1.3 Ma. Spectral analysis indicates that the 100 kyr cycle became dominant at roughly 1.2 Ma, 200-300 kyr earlier than reported for other paleoclimatic records. The response to orbital forcing is weaker since the Mid-Brunhes Dissolution Event (at 400 ka). A west-east reconstruction of biogenic sedimentation in the Peru Basin (four cores; 91-85°W) distinguishes equatorial and coastal upwelling systems in the western and eastern sites, respectively. A north-south reconstruction perpendicular to the equatorial upwelling system (11 cores, 11°N-°3S) shows high carbonate contents (>= 50%) between 6°N and 4°S and highly variable opal contents between 2°N and 4°S. Carbonate cycles B-6, B-8, B-10, B-12, B-14, M-2, and M-6 are well developed with B-10 (430 ka) as the most prominent cycle. Carbonate highs during glacials and glacial-interglacial transitions extended up to 400 km north and south compared to interglacial or interglacial^glacial carbonate lows. Our reconstruction thus favors glacial-interglacial expansion and contraction of the equatorial upwelling system rather than shifting north or south. Elevated accumulation rates are documented near the equator from 6°N to 4°S and from 2°N to 4°S for carbonate and opal, respectively. Accumulation rates are higher during glacials and glacial-interglacial transitions in all cores, whereas increased dissolution is concentrated on Peru Basin sediments close to the carbonate compensation depth and occurred during interglacials or interglacial-glacial transitions.
Resumo:
Based on benthic foraminiferal delta18O from ODP Site 1143, a 5-Myr astronomical timescale for the West Pacific Plio-Pleistocene was established using an automatic orbital tuning method. The tuned Brunhes/Matuyama paleomagnetic polarity reversal age agrees well with the previously published age of 0.78 Ma. The tuned ages for several planktonic foraminifer bio-events also agree well with published dates, and new ages for some other bio-events in the South China Sea were also estimated. The benthic delta18O from Site 1143 is highly coherent with the Earth's orbit (ETP) both at the obliquity and precession bands for the last 5 Myr, and at the eccentricity band for the last 2 Myr. In general, the 41-kyr cycle was dominant through the Plio-Pleistocene although the 23-kyr cycle was also very strong. The 100-kyr cycle became dominant only during the last 1 Myr. A comparison of the benthic delta18O between the Atlantic (ODP 659) and the East and West Pacific (846 and 1143) reveals that the Atlantic-Pacific benthic oxygen isotope difference ratio (Delta delta18OAtl-Pac) displays an increasing trend in three time intervals: 3.6-2.7 Ma, 2.7-2.1 Ma and 1.5-0.25 Ma. Each of the intervals begins with a rapid negative shift in Delta delta18OAtl-Pac, followed by a long period with an increasing trend, corresponding to the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet. This means that all three intervals of ice sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere were accompanied at the beginning by a rapid relative warming of deep water in the Atlantic as compared to that of the Pacific, followed by its gradual relative cooling. This general trend, superimposed on the frequent fluctuations with glacial cycles, should yield insights into the processes leading to the boreal glaciation. Cross-spectral analyses of the Delta delta18OAtl-Pac with the Earth's orbit suggests that after the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at about 2.5 Ma, obliquity rather than precession had become the dominant force controlling the vertical structure or thermohaline circulation in the paleo-ocean.
Resumo:
The global aerosol/climate model ECHAM5-HAM is used in order to investigate the dust cycle for four interglacial and one glacial climate conditions. The 20-year time-slices are the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 years BP), last glacial inception (115000 years BP), Eemian (126000 years BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21000 years BP) time intervals. The study is focused on the Antarctic region. The model is able to reproduce the magnitude order of dust deposition globally for the pre-industial and LGM climates. Correlation coefficient of the natural logarithm of the observed and modeled values is 0.78 for the CTRL and 0.81 for the LGM. For the pre-industrial simulation the model overestimates observed values in Antarctica by a factor of about 2-3 due to overestimation of the Australian dust source and too high wet deposition in the Antarctica interior. In the LGM, the model underestimates dust deposition in eastern Antarctica by a factor of about 4-5 due to underestimation of the South American dust source. More records are needed to validate dust deposition for the past interglacial time-slices. The modeled results show that dust deposition in Antarctica in the past interglacial time-slices is higher than in the CTRL simulation. The largest increase of dust deposition in Antarctica is simulated for the LGM, showing about 10-fold increase compared to CTRL.