On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.

Geometric parameters of shoreface profiles of Laptev Sea erosion coast (Table 1)

Field investigations of the Laptev Sea shoreface morphology were carried out (1) off erosional shores composed of unconsolidated sediments, (2) off the modern delta shores of the Lena River, and (3) off rocky shores. It was found that profiles off erosional shores had a concave shape. This shape is not well described by commonly applied power functions, a feature, which is in disagreement with the generally accepted concept of the equilibrium shape of shoreface profiles. The position of the lower shoreface boundary is determined by the elevation of the coastal lowland inundated during the last transgression (at -5 to -10 m) and may easily be recognized by a sharp, an order of magnitude decrease in the mean inclination of the sea floor. The mean shoreface inclination depends on sediment grain-size and ranges from 0.0022 to 0.033. The concave shape of the shoreface did not change substantially during the last 20-30 years, which indicates that shoreline retreat did not slow down and hence suggests continued intensive coastal erosion in the 21st century. The underwater part of the Lena River delta extends up to 35 km offshore. Its upper part is formed by a shallow and up to 18-km wide bench, which reaches depths of 2-3 m along the outer edge. The evolution of the delta was irregular. Whereas some parts of the delta are advancing rapidly (58 m/year), other parts are eroding. Comparison of measured profiles with older bathymetric data gave an opportunity to evaluate the changes of the underwater delta over past decades. Bathymetric surveys of the seabed around the delta can thus contribute towards a quantification of the sediment budget of the river-sea system. In addition, some sections of the Laptev Sea coast are composed of bedrock that has a comparatively low resistance to wave erosion. These sections may supply a considerable amount of sediment, especially if the cliffs are high. This source must therefore also be taken into account when assessing the contribution of shore erosion to the Laptev Sea sediment budget.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, larval settlement and growth rate during experiments with coral Porites astreoides, 2008

In response to the increases in pCO2 projected in the 21st century, adult coral growth and calcification are expected to decrease significantly. However, no published studies have investigated the effect of elevated pCO2 on earlier life history stages of corals. Porites astreoides larvae were collected from reefs in Key Largo, Florida, USA, settled and reared in controlled saturation state seawater. Three saturation states were obtained, using 1 M HCl additions, corresponding to present (380 ppm) and projected pCO2 scenarios for the years 2065 (560 ppm) and 2100 (720 ppm). The effect of saturation state on settlement and post-settlement growth was evaluated. Saturation state had no significant effect on percent settlement; however, skeletal extension rate was positively correlated with saturation state, with ~50% and 78% reductions in growth at the mid and high pCO2 treatments compared to controls, respectively.

Planktic foraminiferal distribution and stable isotope ratios of sediment core MSM05/5_712-1 from the Arctic Ocean

The Arctic is responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. Northward flowing Atlantic Water is the major means of heat advection towards the Arctic and strongly affects the sea ice distribution. Records of its natural variability are critical for the understanding of feedback mechanisms and the future of the Arctic climate system, but continuous historical records reach back only ~150 years. Here, we present a multidecadal scale record of ocean temperature variations during the last 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). We find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic Amplification of global warming.

Diatom isotope data from ODP Hole 178-1098A for the last deglaciation (12.2-12.8 ka BP)

Understanding the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during the rapid climatic change that accompanied the last deglaciation has implications for establishing the susceptibility of these regions to future 21st Century warming. A unique diatom d18O record derived from a high-resolution deglacial seasonally laminated core section off the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is presented here. By extracting and analysing single species samples from individual laminae, season-specific isotope records were separately generated to show changes in glacial discharge to the coastal margin during spring and summer months. As well as documenting significant intra-annual seasonal variability during the deglaciation, with increased discharge occurring in summer relative to spring, further intra-seasonal variations are apparent between individual taxa linked to the environment that individual diatom species live in. Whilst deglacial d18O are typically lower than those for the Holocene, indicating glacial discharge to the core site peaked at this time, inter-annual and inter-seasonal alternations in excess of 3 per mil suggest significant variability in the magnitude of these inputs. These deglacial variations in glacial discharge are considerably greater than those seen in the modern day water column and would have altered both the supply of oceanic warmth to the WAP as well as regional marine/atmospheric interactions. In constraining changes in glacial discharge over the last deglaciation, the records provide a future framework for investigating links between annually resolved records of glacial dynamics and ocean/climate variability along the WAP.