Medem Channel profiles based on stand-alone model simulation and corrections with nudging

State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80-90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined 'true' state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.

Changes in the vegetation and trade winds in equatorial Northwest Africa 140,000-70,000 yr B.P., as deduced from two marine pollen records

The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.

Age model and pollen analysis from site GIK16867 in the northern Angola Basin

Sporomorphs and dinoflagellate cysts from site GIK16867 in the northern Angola Basin record the vegetation history of the West African forest during the last 700 ka in relation to changes in salinity and productivity of the eastern Gulf of Guinea. During most cool and cold periods, the Afromontane forest, rather than the open grass-rich dry forest, expanded to lower altitudes partly replacing the lowland rain forest of the borderlands east of the Gulf of Guinea. Except in Stage 3, when oceanic productivity was high during a period of decreased atmospheric circulation, high oceanic productivity is correlated to strong winds. The response of marine productivity in the course of a climatic cycle, however, is earlier than that of wind vigour and makes wind-stress-induced oceanic upwelling in the area less likely. Monsoon variation is well illustrated by the pollen record of increased lowland rain forest that is paired to the dinoflagellate cyst record of decreased salinity forced by increased precipitation and run-off.

(Table 2) Age model and sedimentation rate of sediment core GeoB5559-2

The Canary Basin lies in a region of strong interaction between the atmospheric and ocean circulation systems: Trade winds drive seasonal coastal upwelling and dust storm outbreaks from the neighbouring Sahara desert are the major source of terrigenous sediment. To investigate the forcing mechanisms for dust input and wind strength in the North Canary Basin, the temporal pattern of variability of sedimentological and geochemical proxy records has been analysed in two sediment cores between latitudes 30°30'N and 31°40'N. Spectral analysis of the dust proxy records indicates that insolation changes related to eccentricity and precession are the main periods of temporal variation in the record. Si/Al and grain-size of the terrigenous fraction show an increase in glacial-interglacial transitions while Al concentration and Fe/Al ratio are both in phase with minima in the precessional index. Hence, the results obtained show that the wind strength was intensified at Terminations. At times of maxima of Northern Hemisphere seasonal insolation, when the African monsoon was enhanced, the North Canary Basin also received higher dust input. This result suggests that the moisture brought by the monsoon may have increased the availability of dust in the source region.