Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Particle concentration and size distribution in the NGRIP ice core

A novel laser microparticle detector used in conjunction with continuous sample melting has provided a more than 1500 m long record of particle concentration and size distribution of the NGRIP ice core, covering continuously the period approximately from 9.5-100 kyr before present; measurements were at 1.65 m depth resolution, corresponding to approximately 35-200 yr. Particle concentration increased by a factor of 100 in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the Preboreal, and sharp variations of concentration occurred synchronously with rapid changes in the delta18O temperature proxy. The lognormal mode µ of the volume distribution shows clear systematic variations with smaller modes during warmer climates and coarser modes during colder periods. We find µ ~ 1.7 µm diameter during LGM and µ ~ 1.3 µm during the Preboreal. On timescales below several 100 years µ and the particle concentration exhibit a certain degree of independence present especially during warm periods, when µ generally is more variable. Using highly simplifying considerations for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles we infer that (1) the observed changes of µ in the ice largely reflect changes in the size of airborne particles above the ice sheet and (2) changes of µ are indicative of changes in long range atmospheric transport time. From the observed size changes we estimate shorter transit times by roughly 25% during LGM compared to the Preboreal. The associated particle concentration increase from more efficient long range transport is estimated to less than one order of magnitude.

Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Helium isotope ratios and sedimentation rate models of ODP holes

A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (and short duration (<120 kyr) of global warming and of the associated disturbance to the Earth's surficial carbon budget at this time. These observations support astronomically calibrated age models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon, possibly from seafloor methane hydrate, as the proximal cause of the event. However, the 3He[ET] technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The 3He[ET]-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle, and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. 3He[ET] was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051, an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a ~30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values, after which they remain invariant for ~80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690, then the 3HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However, alternative interpretations are possible, and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details, this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Tide amplitude at Ilulissat, and surface height and flow velocities of Jakobshavn Isbrae in August 2004

During the summer of 2004, the front area of the Jakobshavn Isbræ was monitored using a geodetic-photogrammetric survey with temporarily coincident precise observations of local ocean tides in the Disko Bay close to Ilulissat. The geodetic and photogrammetric observations were conducted at the southern margin of the glacier front. The largest observed horizontal flow velocities are in the central part of the front with values up to 45 m/d. This is a factor of 2 greater than the average velocities at the front area observed in the last century. Our new observations confirm previous estimates of an acceleration of glacier flow during the last decade. The photogrammetric survey provided flow trajectories for 4000 surface points with a time resolution of 30 min. These flow trajectories were used to compare the vertical motion of the glacier with the observed tides. The existence of a free-floating glacier tongue in 2004 was confirmed by these data. However, it occupied only a small belt, of at most a few 100 m width, in the central part of the glacier front. Horizontal motion did not appear to depend on the tidal phase, unlike some of the fast-moving ice streams of West Antarctica.

Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca in calcites and estimated distribution coefficients in marine sediments (Table 2)

Recrystallization processes in marine sediments can alter the extent to which biogenic calcite composition serves as a proxy of oceanic chemical and isotopic history. Models of calcite recrystallization developed to date have resulted in significant insights into these processes, but are not completely adequate to describe the conditions of recrystallization. Marine sediments frequently have concentration gradients in interstitial dissolved calcium, magnesium, and strontium which have probably evolved during sediment accumulation. Realistic, albeit simplified, models of the temporal evolution of interstitial water profiles of Ca, Mg, and Sr were used with several patterns of recrystallization rate variation to predict the composition of recrystallized inorganic calcite. Comparison of predictions with measured Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in severely altered calcite samples from several Deep Sea Drilling Project sites demonstrates that models incorporating temporal variation in interstitial water composition more successfully predict observed calcite compositions than do models which rely solely on present-day interstitial water chemistry. Temporal changes in interstitial composition are particularly important in interpreting Mg/Ca ratios in conjunction with Sr/Ca ratios. Estimates of Mg distribution coefficients from previous observations in marine sediments, much lower than those in laboratory studies of inorganic calcite, are confirmed by these results. Evaluation of the effects of diagenetic alteration of biogenic calcium carbonate sediment must be a site-specific process, taking into account accumulation history, present interstitial chemistry and its variation in the past, and sample depths and ages.

Mineralogy and nannoplankton distribution in ODP Hole 194-1195A

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

Biomarkers, stable carbon isotope record and pollen distribution of the soutwest African continental margin

This is part 2 of a study examining southwest African continental margin sediments from nine sites on a north-south transect from the Congo Fan (4°S) to the Cape Basin (30°S) representing two glacial (MIS 2 and 6a) and two interglacial stages (MIS 1 and 5e). Contents, distribution patterns, and molecular stable carbon isotope signatures of long-chain n-alkanes (C27-C33) and n-alkanols (C22-C32) as indicators of land plant vegetation of different biosynthetic types were correlated with concentrations and distributions of pollen taxa in sediments of the same time horizons. Selected single pollen type data reveal details of vegetation changes, but the overall picture is best illustrated by summing pollen known to predominantly derive from C4 plants or C4 plus CAM plants. The C4 plant signals in the biomarkers are recorded in the delta13C data and in the abundances of C31 and C33 n-alkanes, and the C32 n-alkanol. Calculated clusters of wind trajectories for austral summer and winter situations for the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum afford information on the source areas for the lipids and pollen and their transport pathways to the ocean. This multidisciplinary approach provides clear evidence of latitudinal differences in leaf wax lipid and pollen composition, with the Holocene sedimentary data paralleling the current major phytogeographic zonations. The northern sites (Congo Fan area and northern Angola Basin) get most of their terrestrial material from the Congo Basin and the Angolan highlands dominated by C3 plants. Airborne particulates derived from the western and central South African hinterland dominated by deserts, semideserts, and savannah regions are rich in organic matter from C4 plants. As can be expected from the present and glacial positions of the phytogeographic zones, the carbon isotopic signatures of n-alkanes and n-alkanols both become isotopically more enriched in 13C from north to south. In the northern part of the transect the relative importance of C4 plant indicators is higher during the glacials than in the interglacials, indicating a northward extension of arid zones favoring grass vegetation. In the south, where grass-rich vegetation merges into semidesert and desert, the difference in C4 plant indicators is small.