Water stable oxygen isotope records from six Antarctic ice core sites for the present and last interglacial periods

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models

Organic temperature proxies in the subpolat region around Iceland

Subpolar regions are key areas to study natural climate variability, due to their high sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, particularly through sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Here, we have tested three independent organic temperature proxies (UK'37, TEX86 and LDI) on their potential applicability for SST reconstruction in the subpolar region around Iceland. UK'37, TEX86 and TEXL86 temperature estimates from suspended particulate matter showed a substantial discrepancy with instrumental data, while long chain alkyl diols were below detection limit in most of the stations. In the northern Iceland Basin, sedimenting particles revealed a seasonality in lipid fluxes i.e. high fluxes of alkenones and GDGTs were measured during late spring-summer, and high fluxes of long chain alkyl diols during late summer. The flux-weighted average temperature estimates had a significant negative (ca. 2.3°C for UK'37) and positive (up to 5°C for TEX86) offset with satellite-derived SSTs and temperature estimates derived from the underlying surface sediment. UK'37 temperature estimates from surface sediments around Iceland correlate well with summer mean sea surface temperatures, while TEX86 derived temperatures correspond with both annual and winter mean 0-200 m temperatures, suggesting a subsurface temperature signal. Anomalous LDI-SST values in surface sediments, and low mass flux of 1,13- and 1,15-diols compared to 1,14-diols, suggest that Proboscia diatoms are the major sources of long chain alkyl diols in this area rather than eustigmatophyte algae, and therefore the LDI cannot be applied in this region.

Annual average Sr/Ca measurements from Porites lutea coral at Ha'afera Island, Tonga

In the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the variability in a sub-seasonally resolved microatoll Porites colony Sr/Ca record from Tonga and a previously published high-resolution record from Fiji are strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) over the calibration period from 1981 to 2004 (R^2 = 0.67 - 0.68). However, the Sr/Ca-derived SST correlation to instrumental SST decreases back in time. The lower frequency secular trend (~1°C) and decadal-scale (~2 - 3°C) modes in Sr/Ca-derived SST are almost two times larger than that observed in instrumental SST. The coral Sr/Ca records suggest that local effects on SST generate larger amplitude variability than gridded SST products indicate. Reconstructed d18O of seawater (d18Osw) at these sites correlate with instrumental sea surface salinity (SSS; r = 0.64 - 0.67) but not local precipitation (r = -0.10 to - 0.22) demonstrating that the advection and mixing of different salinity water masses may be the predominant control on d18Osw in this region. The Sr/Ca records indicate SST warming over the last 100 years and appears to be related to the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) including an increasing rate of expansion in the last ~20 years. The reconstructed d18Osw over the last 100 years also shows surface water freshening across the SPCZ. The warming and freshening of the surface ocean in our study area suggests that the SPCZ has been shifting (expanding) southeast, possibly related to the southward shift and intensification of the South Pacific gyre over the last 50 years in response to strengthened westerly winds.

Foraminifer faunas in the Tagus Prodelta

Pluri-annual proxy records of marine sediment cores from the Tagus Prodelta off Lisbon, Portugal, have been generated to gain insight into the climatic and hydrographic changes in the area during the twentieth century. The study includes benthic and planktonic foraminiferal faunas and the stable isotopic composition of one benthic (Uvigerina celtica) and two planktonic (Globigerina bulloides and Globorotalia inflata) foraminiferal species. Sea bottom and surface water temperatures were estimated based on the d18O values of these species and compared with instrumental data. The foraminiferal fauna and the isotope-based temperature record indicate increasing temperatures throughout the last century. The immigration of a new species, Saidovina karreriana, to the area around 100 years ago indicates changes in the trophic conditions and water mass properties, which are probably at least partly due to anthropogenic pollution.

Triennial skeletal stable oxygen isotope ratios of Diploria labyrinthiformis

The reconstruction of the climatic history during the past several hundred years requires a sufficient geographical coverage of combined climate proxy series. Especially in order to identify causal connections between the atmosphere and the ocean, inclusion of marine records into composite climate time series is of fundamental importance. We present two skeletal delta18O chronologies of coral skeletons of Diploria labyrinthiformis from Bermuda fore-reef sites covering periods in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and compare them with instrumental temperature data. Both time series are demonstrated to display sea-surface temperature (SST) variability on inter-annual to decadal time scales. On the basis of a specific modern delta18O vs instrumental SST calibration we reconstruct a time series of SST anomalies between AD 1350 and 1630 covering periods during the Little Ice Age. The application of the coral delta18O vs temperature relationship leads to estimates of past SST variability which are comparable to the magnitude of modern variations. Parallel to delta18O chronologies we present time series of skeletal bulk density. Coral delta18O and skeletal density reveal a strong similarity during Little Ice Age, confirming the reliability of both proxy climate indicators. The past coral records, presented in this study, share features with a previously published climate proxy record from Bermuda and a composite time series of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. The coral proxy data presented here represent a valuable contribution to elucidate northern Atlantic subtropical climate variation during the past several centuries.

(Table 1) Age determination of North Atlantic sediment cores

Four cores raised from the eastern Norwegian Sea and adjacent Norwegian fjords at sites influenced by Atlantic water have been investigated. Oxygen isotope analyses in benthic and planktonic foraminifera are used as a proxy for the paleotemperature development spanning the last 800 years. The cores have been dated using a combination of 210Pb and radiocarbon dates yielding time resolutions of 2-5 years for the last century and 9-25 years beyond this. The proxy records have been compared with instrumental time series covering the last 100 years in order to validate the oxygen isotope measurements as a proxy for paleotemperature. The comparison shows that the paleotemperature variability derived from the oxygen isotope analyses is generally similar to the amplitudes and trends seen in the instrumental time series. In particular, a cooling around 1905-1925 followed by a warming until 1955 is evident in all proxy records as well as in the instrumental time series. Beyond the last century the proxy records show two periods from ~1225-1450 and ~1650-1905(25) when temperatures were 1.3-1.6°C lower than present separated by a period of temperatures periodically comparable to present. The last 80 years represent the modern warming and appear to be the warmest period of the last 800 years. We find that that the ocean temperature variability is comparable to terrestrial reconstructions from the region implying a strong link in the ocean-atmosphere climate system. This suggests that the climate variability in this region beyond the period covered by instrumental time series was also associated with changes in the thermohaline circulation.

Stable oxygen isotope record of coral core RUS-95 from the Red Sea

A 245-year coral oxygen isotope record from the northern Red Sea (Ras Umm Sidd/Egypt, ~28°N) in bimonthly resolution is presented. The mean annual coral delta18O signal apparently reflects varying proportions of both sea surface temperature and delta18Oseawater variability. In conjunction with instrumental observations of climate the coral record suggests for interannual and longer timescales that colder periods are accompanied by more arid conditions in the northern Red Sea but increased rainfall in the southeastern Mediterranean, whereas warmer periods are accompanied by decreased rainfall in the latter and less arid conditions in the northern Red Sea. A ~70-year oscillation of probably North Atlantic origin dominates the coral time series. Interannual to interdecadal variability is correlated with instrumental indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Pacific climate variability. The results suggest that these modes contributed consistently to Middle East climate variability since at least 1750, preferentially at a period of ~5.7 years.

(Table 2) Fatty acid profile of blubber from harp seals and hooded seals from the Greenland Sea and Denmark Strait

Sub-Arctic marine ecosystems are some of the most productive ecosystems in the world's oceans. The capacity of herbivorous zooplankton, such as Calanus, to biosynthesize and store large amounts of lipids during the short and intense spring bloom is a fundamental adaptation which facilitates the large production in these ecosystems. These energy-rich lipids are rapidly transferred through the food chain to Arctic seals. The fatty acids and stable isotopes from harp seal (Phoca groenlandica) and hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) off East Greenland as well as their potential prey, were analysed. The results were used to describe the lipid dynamics and energy transfer in parts of the East Greenland ecosystem. Even if the two seal species showed considerable overlap in diet and occurred at relatively similar trophic levels, the fatty acid profiles indicated that the bases of the food chains of harp and hooded seals were different. The fatty acids of harp seals originate from diatom-based food chain, whereas the fatty acids of hooded seals originate from dinoflagellate and the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis pouchetii-based food chain. Stable isotope analyses showed that both species are true carnivores on the top of their food chains, with hooded seal being slightly higher on the food chain than harp seal.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

(Table 2) Age determination of harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) from the Barents Sea - comparison of methods

Lower jaws (containing the teeth), eyes, and skin samples were collected from harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in the southeastern Barents Sea for the purpose of comparing age estimates obtained by 3 different methods, the traditional technique of counting growth layer groups (GLGs) in teeth and 2 novel approaches, aspartic acid racemization (AAR) in eye lens nuclei and telomere sequence analyses as a proxy for telomere length. A significant correlation between age estimates obtained using GLGs and AAR was found, whereas no correlation was found between GLGs and telomere length. An AAR rate (k Asp) of 0.00130/year ± 0.00005 SE and a D-enantiomer to L-enantiomer ratio at birth (D/L 0 value) of 0.01933 ± 0.00048 SE were estimated by regression of D/L ratios against GLG ages from 25 animals (12 selected teeth that had high readability and 13 known-aged animals). AAR could prove to be useful, particularly for ageing older animals in species such as harp seals where difficulties in counting GLGs tend to increase with age. Age estimation by telomere length did not show any correlation with GLG ages and is not recommended for harp seals.