Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Air concentration of polybrominated diphenyl ethers around the Great Lakes and the Arctic

Atmospheric PBDEs were measured on a monthly basis in 2002-2004 at Point Petre, a rural site in the Great Lakes. Average air concentrations were 7.0 ± 13 pg/m**3 for the sum of 14BDE (excluding BDE-209), and 1.8 ± 1.5 pg/m**3 for BDE-209. Concentrations of 3 dominant congeners (i.e., BDE-47, 99, and 209) were comparable to previous measurements at remote/rural sites around the Great Lakes, but much lower than those at urban areas. Weak temperature dependence and strong linear correlations between relatively volatile congeners suggest importance of advective inputs of gaseous species. The significant correlation between BDE-209 and 183 implies their transport inputs associated with particles. Particle-bound percentages were found greater for highly brominated congeners than less brominated ones. These percentages increase with decreasing ambient temperatures. The observed gas/particle partitioning is consistent with laboratory measurements and fits well to the Junge-Pankow model. Using air mass back-trajectories, atmospheric transport to Point Petre was estimated as 76% for BDE-47, 67% for BDE-99, and 70% for BDE-209 from west-northwest and southwest directions. During the same time period, similar congener profiles and concentration levels were found at Alert in the Canadian High Arctic. Different inter-annual variations between Point Petre and Alert indicate that emissions from other regions than North America could also contribute PBDEs in the Arctic. In contrast to weak temperature effect at Point Petre, significant temperature dependence in the summertime implies volatilization emissions of PBDEs at Alert. Meanwhile, episodic observations in the wintertime were likely associated with enhanced inputs through long-range transport during the Arctic Haze period.