Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Compilation of scientific results of the OASIS project

Seamounts are of great interest to science, industry and conservation because of their potential role as 'stirring rods' of the oceans, their enhanced productivity, their high local biodiversity, and the growing exploitation of their natural resources. This is accompanied by rising concern about the threats to seamount ecosystems, e.g. through over-fishing and the impact of trawling. OASIS described the functioning characteristics of seamount ecosystems. OASIS' integrated hydrographic, biogeochemical and biological information. Based on two case studies. The scientific results, condensed in conceptual and mass balanced ecosystem models, were applied to outline a model management plan as well as site-specific management plans for the seamounts investigated. OASIS addressed five main objectives: Objective 1: To identify and describe the physical forcing mechanisms effecting seamount systems Objective 2: To assess the origin, quality and dynamics of particulate organic material within the water column and surface sediment at seamounts. Objective 3: To describe aspects of the biodiversity and the ecology of seamount biota, to assess their dynamics and the maintenance of their production. Objective 4: Modelling the trophic ecology of seamount ecosystems. Objective 5: Application of scientific knowledge to practical conservation.

Distribution of basalt boulders and ice rafted debris in the region of the Iceland-Faroe-Ridge (Fig. 6-12)

Psephitic particles in the region of the Iceland-Faeroe-Ridge have been transported and deposited by means of a complex interplay of glacier movements and drifting icebergs. The composition of the particle association is controlled by the sedimentation of basaltic rock particles derived from the ridge itself and, in addition to that and in southern parts of the ridge, from the Faeroe Islands, the Faeroe-Bank and the Bill Baileys-Bank. Besides, there are crystalline and sedimentary dropstones showing a very varied petrography and a wide range of particle sizes. Their percentage becomes greater as the distance from the ridge increases. The association of dropstones is relatively homogeneous in the region of the ridge and only at greater distances from the ridge it becomes more differentiated. Owing to their composition and distribution, as well as on the basis of characteristic fossils and rock types, the drop-stones are derived from Scandianvia and Great Britain. During periods of maximum glaciation, the Icland-Faeroe-Ridge, th eFaeroe-Bank and the Bill Baileys-Bank were under ice.

The North Sea autumn spawning Herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)

The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.