Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Global glacier changes

Changes in glaciers and ice caps provide some of the clearest evidence of climate change, and as such they constitute key variables for early detection strategies in global climate-related observations. These changes have impacts on global sea level fluctuations, the regional to local natural hazard situation, as well as on societies dependent on glacier meltwater. Internationally coordinated collection and publication of standardised information about ongoing glacier changes was initiated back in 1894. The compiled data sets on the global distribution and changes in glaciers and ice caps provide the backbone of the numerous scientific publications on the latest findings about surface ice on land. Since the very beginning, the compiled data has been published by the World Glacier Monitoring Service and its predecessor organisations. However, the corresponding data tables, formats and meta-data are mainly of use to specialists.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on alkenones of sediment core M35003-4

Evidence for abrupt climate changes on millennial and shorter timescales is widespread in marine and terrestrial climate records (Dansgard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/364218a0; Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Charles et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(96)00083-0, Bard et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/385707a0). Rapid reorganization of ocean circulation is considered to exert some control over these changes (Broecker et al., 1985, doi:10.1038/315021a0), as are shifts in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Broecker, 1994, doi:10.1038/372421a0). The response of the climate system to these two influences is fundamentally different: slowing of thermohaline overturn in the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to decrease northward heat transport by the ocean and to induce warming of the tropical Atlantic (Crowley, 1992, doi:10.1029/92PA01058; Manabe and Stouffer, 1997, doi:10.1029/96PA03932), whereas atmospheric greenhouse forcing should cause roughly synchronous global temperature changes (Manabe et al., 1991, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0785:TROACO>2.0.CO;2). So these two mechanisms of climate change should be distinguishable by the timing of surface-water temperature variations relative to changes in deep-water circulation. Here we present a high-temporal-resolution record of sea surface temperatures from the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean which spans the past 29,000 years, derived from measurements of temperature-sensitive alkenone unsaturation in sedimentary organic matter. We find significant warming is documented for Heinrich event H1 (16,900-15,400 calendar years bp) and the Younger Dryas event (12,900-11,600 cal. yr bp), which were periods of intense cooling in the northern North Atlantic. Temperature changes in the tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic are out of phase, suggesting that the thermohaline circulation was the important trigger for these rapid climate changes.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Pliocene foraminifera and SST changes in ODP Site 184-1125

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts were converted to sea surface temperature (SST) estimates using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the middle-late Pliocene (4.0-2.37 Ma) in ODP Site 1125, north side of Chatham Rise, SW Pacific Ocean. MAT SST(warm) records range between 8°C and 20.5°C, and MAT SST(cold) records parallel that pattern but with a temperature range of 5-15°C. The modern position of Site 1125 is just north of the Subtropical Front and has an annual temperature range of ~14-18°C. Pliocene warmest temperatures are 1-2° warmer than modern summers, whereas cold season SST records are up to 6-10°C cooler than modern winters. Overall average temperatures at the site are 2-3°C cooler than modern temperatures during a time of sustained global warmth. Three major cold excursions centred on 3.35, 3.0, and 2.8 Ma showed warm season temperatures over 5°C colder than the last glacial maximum, experiencing temperatures typical of modern subantarctic waters. Two minor cold excursions at 2.7 Ma and 2.4 Ma experienced temperatures cooler than modern winters but not as cold as last glacial conditions. Cold season SSTs show a shift to warmer climate upward through the study interval, whereas warm season estimates remain essentially unchanged. We interpret the strong regional cooling of subtropical Southwest Pacific water through the middle-late Pliocene as having been caused by increased upwelling. It is also possible that the subtropical frontal zone moved north over the site in the Pliocene, however, this is considered the least likely interpretation. Our record of cool conditions in the Southwest Pacific corroborate evidence of cooler than modern conditions in other regions of the western Pacific through the mid-Pliocene despite overall global warming.

Annual response of two Mediterranean azooxanthellate temperate corals to low-pH and high-temperature conditions

Ocean acidification (OA) and warming related to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 have been shown to have detrimental effects on several marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate structures such as corals. In this study, we evaluate the response of two Mediterranean shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to the projected pH and seawater temperature (ST) scenarios for the end of this century. The colonial coral Astroides calycularis and the solitary Leptopsammia pruvoti were grown in aquaria over a year under two fixed pH conditions, control (8.05 pHT units) and low (7.72 pHT units), and simulating two annual ST cycles, natural and high (+3 °C). The organic matter (OM), lipid and protein content of the tissue and the skeletal microdensity of A. calycularis were not affected by the stress conditions (low pH, high ST), but the species exhibited a mean 25 % decrease in calcification rate at high-ST conditions at the end of the warm period and a mean 10 % increase in skeletal porosity under the acidified treatment after a full year cycle. Conversely, an absence of effects on calcification and skeletal microdensity of L. pruvoti exposed to low-pH and high-ST treatments contrasted with a significant decrease in the OM, lipid and protein content of the tissue at high-ST conditions and a 13 % mean increase in the skeletal porosity under low-pH conditions following a full year of exposure. This species-specific response suggests that different internal self-regulation strategies for energy reallocation may allow certain shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to cope more successfully than others with global environmental changes.

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains

The global warming debate has sparked an unprecedented interest in temperature effects on coccolithophores. The calcification response to temperature changes reported in the literature, however, is ambiguous. The two main sources of this ambiguity are putatively differences in experimental setup and strain-specificity. In this study we therefore compare three strains isolated in the North Pacific under identical experimental conditions. Three strains of Emiliania huxleyi type A were grown under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions, at 10, 15, 20 and 25 ºC. All three strains displayed similar growth rate versus temperature relationships, with an optimum at 20-25 ºC. Elemental production (particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), total particulate nitrogen (TPN)), coccolith mass, coccolith size, and width of the tube elements cycle were positively correlated with temperature over the sub-optimum to optimum temperature range. The correlation between PIC production and coccolith mass/size supports the notion that coccolith mass can be used as a proxy for PIC production in sediment samples. Increasing PIC production was significantly positively correlated with the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in one strain only. Generally, coccoliths were heavier when PIC production was higher. This shows that incompleteness of coccoliths is not due to time shortage at high PIC production. Sub-optimal growth temperatures lead to an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths in a strain-specific fashion. Since in total only six strains have been tested thus far, it is presently difficult to say whether sub-optimal temperature is an important factor causing malformations in the field. The most important parameter in biogeochemical terms, the PIC:POC, shows a minimum at optimum growth temperature in all investigated strains. This clarifies the ambiguous picture featuring in the literature, i.e. discrepancies between PIC:POC-temperature relationships reported in different studies using different strains and different experimental setups. In summary, global warming might cause a decline in coccolithophore's PIC contribution to the rain ratio, as well as improved fitness in some genotypes due to less coccolith malformations.