Figures and related data of a review of the "Global and Russian energy outlook up to 2040"

The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector. Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia's economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.

BSRN snapshot 2015-09, links to zip archives

The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and its central archive - the World Radiation Monitoring Center (WRMC) - was created in 1992. It is a project of the Data Assimilation Panel from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) under the umbrella of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and as such is aimed at detecting important changes in the Earth's radiation field at the Earth's surface which may be related to climate changes. The data are of primary importance in supporting the validation and confirmation of satellite and computer model estimates of these quantities. At a small number of stations in contrasting climatic zones, covering a latitude range from 80°N to 90°S, solar and atmospheric radiation is measured with instruments of the highest available accuracy and with high time resolution (1 to 3 minutes). Since 2008 the WRMC is hosted by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany (http://www.bsrn.awi.de/).

Basic measurements of radiation from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) in the years 1992 to 2012, reference list of 6378 datasets

In the framework of the global energy balance, the radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are now accurately quantified from new satellite missions. Much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites. In addition to satellite observations, here we make extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the global energy balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combine these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for the 5th IPCC assessment report to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean downward surface solar and thermal radiation values near 185 and 342 Wm**-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations. Combined with an estimated surface absorbed solar radiation and thermal emission of 161 Wm**-2 and 397 Wm**-2, respectively, this leaves 106 Wm**-2 of surface net radiation available for distribution amongst the non-radiative surface energy balance components. The climate models overestimate the downward solar and underestimate the downward thermal radiation, thereby simulating nevertheless an adequate global mean surface net radiation by error compensation. This also suggests that, globally, the simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, around 20 and 85 Wm**-2 on average, state realistic values. The findings of this study are compiled into a new global energy balance diagram, which may be able to reconcile currently disputed inconsistencies between energy and water cycle estimates.

Global cooling during the Eocene Oligocene Transition

About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate shifted from a relatively ice-free world to one with glacial conditions on Antarctica characterized by substantial ice sheets. How Earth's temperature changed during this climate transition remains poorly understood, and evidence for Northern Hemisphere polar ice is controversial. Here, we report proxy records of sea surface temperatures from multiple ocean localities and show that the high-latitude temperature decrease was substantial and heterogeneous. High-latitude (45 degrees to 70 degrees in both hemispheres) temperatures before the climate transition were ~20°C and cooled an average of ~5°C. Our results, combined with ocean and ice-sheet model simulations and benthic oxygen isotope records, indicate that Northern Hemisphere glaciation was not required to accommodate the magnitude of continental ice growth during this time.

Global macrozoobenthos production and energy budget data base V150731, with link to database

I developed a new model for estimating annual production-to-biomass ratio P/B and production P of macrobenthic populations in marine and freshwater habitats. Self-learning artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to model the relationships between P/B and twenty easy-to-measure abiotic and biotic parameters in 1252 data sets of population production. Based on log-transformed data, the final predictive model estimates log(P/B) with reasonable accuracy and precision (r2 = 0.801; residual mean square RMS = 0.083). Body mass and water temperature contributed most to the explanatory power of the model. However, as with all least squares models using nonlinearly transformed data, back-transformation to natural scale introduces a bias in the model predictions, i.e., an underestimation of P/B (and P). When estimating production of assemblages of populations by adding up population estimates, accuracy decreases but precision increases with the number of populations in the assemblage.

Stable oxygen isotope record and Mg/Ca ratios at the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition, ODP Site 181-1123

Earth's climate underwent a fundamental change between 1250 and 700 thousand years ago, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), when the dominant periodicity of climate cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years in the absence of significant change in orbital forcing. Over this time, an increase occurred in the amplitude of change of deep ocean foraminiferal oxygen isotopic ratios, traditionally interpreted as defining the main rhythm of ice ages although containing large effects of changes in deep-ocean temperature. We have separated the effects of decreasing temperature and increasing global ice volume on oxygen isotope ratios. Our results suggest that the MPT was initiated by an abrupt increase in Antarctic ice volume at 900 ka. We see no evidence of a pattern of gradual cooling but near-freezing temperatures occur at every glacial maximum.

Turbulent flux and meteorological measurements during ARCTEX-2006 campaign

This dataset present result from the DFG- funded Arctic-Turbulence-Experiment (ARCTEX-2006) performed by the University of Bayreuth on the island of Svalbard, Norway, during the winter/spring transition 2006. From May 5 to May 19, 2006 turbulent flux and meteorological measurements were performed on the monitoring field near Ny-Ålesund, at 78°55'24'' N, 11°55'15'' E Kongsfjord, Svalbard (Spitsbergen), Norway. The ARCTEX-2006 campaign site was located about 200 m southeast of the settlement on flat snow covered tundra, 11 m to 14 m above sea level. The permanent sites used for this study consisted of the 10 m meteorological tower of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI), the international standardized radiation measurement site of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the radiosonde launch site and the AWI tethered balloon launch sites. The temporary sites - set up by the University of Bayreuth - were a 6 m meteorological gradient tower, an eddy-flux measurement complex (EF), and a laser-scintillometer section (SLS). A quality assessment and data correction was applied to detect and eliminate specific measurement errors common at a high arctic landscape. In addition, the quality checked sensible heat flux measurements are compared with bulk aerodynamic formulas that are widely used in atmosphere-ocean/land-ice models for polar regions as described in Ebert and Curry (1993, doi:10.1029/93JC00656) and Launiainen and Cheng (1995). These parameterization approaches easily allow estimation of the turbulent surface fluxes from routine meteorological measurements. The data show: - the role of the intermittency of the turbulent atmospheric fluctuation of momentum and scalars, - the existence of a disturbed vertical temperature profile (sharp inversion layer) close to the surface, - the relevance of possible free convection events for the snow or ice melt in the Arctic spring at Svalbard, and - the relevance of meso-scale atmospheric circulation pattern and air-mass advection for the near-surface turbulent heat exchange in the Arctic spring at Svalbard. Recommendations and improvements regarding the interpretation of eddy-flux and laser-scintillometer data as well as the arrangement of the instrumentation under polar distinct exchange conditions and (extreme) weather situations could be derived.

Part of the global DOC versus AOU (dissolved organic carbon/apparent oxygen utilization) data compilation, Arabian Sea

Concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) were determined on samples collected during six cruises in the northern Arabian Sea during the 1995 US JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study. Total organic carbon concentrations and integrated stocks in the upper ocean varied both spatially and seasonally. Highest mixed-layer TOC concentrations (80-100 µM C) were observed near the coast when upwelling was not active, while upwelling tended to reduce local concentrations. In the open ocean, highest mixed-layer TOC concentrations (80-95 µM C) developed in winter (period of the NE Monsoon) and remained through mid summer (early to mid-SW Monsoon). Lowest open ocean mixed-layer concentrations (65-75 µM C) occurred late in the summer (late SW Monsoon) and during the Fall Intermonsoon period. The changes in TOC concentrations resulted in seasonal variations in mean TOC stocks (upper 150 m) of 1.5-2 mole C/m**2, with the lowest stocks found late in the summer during the SW Monsoon-Fall Intermonsoon transition. The seasonal accumulation of TOC north of 15°N was 31-41 x 10**12 g C, mostly taking place over the period of the NE Monsoon, and equivalent to 6-8% of annual primary production estimated for that region in the mid-1970s. A net TOC production rate of 12 mmole C/m**2/d over the period of the NE Monsoon represented ~80% of net community production. Net TOC production was nil during the SW Monsoon, so vertical export would have dominated the export terms over that period. Total organic carbon concentrations varied in vertical profiles with the vertical layering of the water masses, with the Persian Gulf Water TOC concentrations showing a clear signal. Deep water (>2000 m) TOC concentrations were uniform across the basin and over the period of the cruises, averaging 42.3±1.4 µM C.

Planktic foraminifera across the Cretaceous-Tertiary transition in the Antarctic Ocean

Three Antarctic Ocean K/T boundary sequences from ODP Site 738C on the Kerguelen Plateau, ODP Site, 752B on Broken Ridge and ODP Site 690C on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, have been analyzed for stratigraphic completeness and faunal turnover based on quantitative planktic foraminiferal studies. Results show that Site 738C, which has a laminated clay layer spanning the K/T boundary, is biostratigraphically complete with the earliest Tertiary Zones P0 and P1a present, but with short intrazonal hiatuses. Site 752B may be biostratigraphically complete and Site 690C has a hiatus at the K/T boundary with Zones P0 and P1a missing. Latest Cretaceous to earliest Tertiary planktic foraminiferal faunas from the Antarctic Ocean are cosmopolitan and similar to coeval faunas dominating in low, middle and northern high latitudes, although a few endemic species are present. This allows application of the current low and middle latitude zonation to Antarctic K/T boundary sequences. The most abundant endemic species is Chiloguembelina waiparaensis, which was believed to have evolved in the early Tertiary, but which apparently evolved as early as Chron 30N at Site 738C. Since this species is only rare in sediments of Site 690C in the Weddell Sea, this suggests that a watermass oceanographic barner may have existed between the Indian and Atlantic Antarctic Oceans. The cosmopolitan nature of the dominant fauna began during the last 200,000 to 300,000 years of the Cretaceous and continued at least 300,000 years into the Tertiary. This indicates a long-term environmental crisis that led to gradual elimination of specialized forms and takeover by generalists tolerant of wide ranging temperature, oxygen, salinity and nutrient conditions. A few thousand years before the K/T boundary these generalists gradually declined in abundance and species became generally dwarfed due to increased environmental stress. There is no evidence of a sudden mass killing of the Cretaceous fauna associated with a bolide impact at the K/T boundary. Instead, the already declining Cretaceous taxa gradually disappear in the early Danian and the opportunistic survivor taxa (Ch. waiparaensis and Guembelitria cretacea) increase in relative abundance coincident with the evolution of the first new Tertiary species.

Simulated transition to agropastoralism in the Indus valley 7500-3000 BC

The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizations in prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of the fourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despite much research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research has been devoted to the emergence of the IVC, which shows continuous cultural precursors since at least the seventh millennium BC. To understand the decline, we believe it is necessary to investigate the rise of the IVC, i.e., the establishment of agriculture and livestock, dense populations and technological developments 7000-3000 BC. Although much archaeologically typed information is available, our capability to investigate the system is hindered by poorly resolved chronology, and by a lack of field work in the intermediate areas between the Indus valley and Mesopotamia. We thus employ a complementary numerical simulation to develop a consistent picture of technology, agropastoralism and population developments in the IVC domain. Results from this Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator show that there is (1) fair agreement between the simulated timing of the agricultural transition and radiocarbon dates from early agricultural sites, but the transition is simulated first in India then Pakistan; (2) an independent agropas- toralism developing on the Indian subcontinent; and (3) a positive relationship between archeological artifact richness and simulated population density which remains to be quantified.

Simulated agricultural subsistence, timing of transition, and percentage of immigrant farmers

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

31 ground-penetrating radar lines of Area 3 - Beach ridge plain (high wave energy) from Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

During a field campaign in the Austral spring 2012 the sedimentary architecture of a polar gravel-beach system at the southern coast of Potter Peninsula (Area 3) was revealed using ground-penetrating radar (GPR, Geophysical Survey Systems, Inc. SIR-3000). 31 profiles were collected using a mono-static 200 MHz antenna operated in common offset mode. Trace increment was set to 0.05 m. A differential global-positioning system (dGPS, Leica GS09) was used to obtain topographical information along the GPR lines. GPR data are provided in RADAN-Format, dGPS coordinates are provided in ascii format; projection is UTM (WGS 84, zone 21S).

Global Homogeneous Response Units

The concept of homogenous response units (HRU) was designed as a general concept for the delineation of basic spatial units. Only those characteristics of landscape, which are relatively stable over time (even under climate change) and largely unsusceptible to anthropogenic influence, were selected. The HRU can be seen as a basic spatial framework for the implementation of climate change and land management alternative scenarios into global modeling and therefore is a basic input for delineation of landscape units. HRUs are defined based on classifications of altitude (five classes: 1 (0 - 300m), 2 (300 - 600m), 3 (600 - 1100m), 4 (1100 - 2500m), 5 (> 2500m)), slope (seven classes(degrees): 1 (0 - 3), 2 (3 - 6), 3 (6 - 10), 4 (10 - 15), 5 (15 - 30), 6 (30 - 50), 7 (> 50)) and soil composition (five classes: 1 (sandy), 2 (loamy), 3 (clay), 4 (stony), 5 (peat)). e.g. HRU111 refers to Altitude class 1: 0-300m; Slope class 1: 0-3 degrees; and Soil class 1: sandy. Areas of non-soil are assigned 88. HRUs have a spatial resolution of approximately 10 km**2.