Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Coccoliths and carbonate grain-size compositions in sediment samples from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This study presents a differentiated carbonate budget for marine surface sediments from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge of the South Atlantic, with results based on carbonate grain-size composition. Upon separation into sand, silt, and clay sub-fractions, the silt grain-size distribution was measured using a SediGraph 5100. We found regionally characteristic grain-size distributions with an overall minimum at 8 µm equivalent spherical diameter (ESD). SEM observations reveal that the coarse particles (>8 µm ESD) are attributed to planktic foraminifers and their fragments, and the fine particles (<8 µm ESD) to coccoliths. On the basis of this division, the regional variation of the contribution of foraminifers and coccoliths to the carbonate budget of the sediments are calculated. Foraminifer carbonate dominates the sediments in mesotropic regions whereas coccoliths contribute most carbonate in oligotrophic regions. The grain size of the coccolith share is constant over water depth, indicating a lower susceptibility for carbonate dissolution compared to foraminifers. Finally, the characteristic grain-size distribution in fine silt (<8 µm ESD) is set into context with the coccolith assemblage counted and biometrically measured using a SEM. The coccoliths present in the silt fraction are predominantly large species (length > 4 µm). Smaller species (length < 4 µm) belong to the clay fraction (<2 µm ESD). The average length of most frequent coccolith species is connected to prominent peaks in grain-size distributions (ESD) with a shape factor. The area below Gaussian distributions fitted to these peaks is suggested as a way to quantitatively estimate the carbonate contribution of single coccolith species more precisely compared to conventional volume estimates. The quantitative division of carbonate into the fraction produced by coccoliths and that secreted by foraminifers enables a more precise estimate for source/sink relations of consumed and released CO2 in the carbon cycle. The allocation of coccolith length and grain size (ESD) suggests size windows for the separation or accumulation of distinct coccolith species in investigations that depend on non to slightly-mixed signals (e.g., isotopic studies).

Methane, helium isotope and hydrogen data from the Nibelungen hydrothermal area, Mid Atlantic Ridge

Hydrothermal emission of mantle helium appears to be directly related to magma production rate, but other processes can generate methane and hydrogen on mid-ocean ridges. In an on-going effort to characterize these processes in the South Atlantic, the flux and distribution of these gases were investigated in the vicinity of a powerful black smoker recently discovered at 8°17.9' S, 13°30.4' W. The vent lies on the shoulder of an oblique offset in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and discharges high concentrations of methane and hydrogen. Measurements during expeditions in 2004 and 2006 show that the ratio of CH4 to 3He in the neutrally buoyant plume is quite high, 4 x 10**8. The CTD stations were accompanied by velocity measurements with lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP), and from these data we estimate the methane transport to have been 0.5 mol/sec in a WSW-trending plume that seems to develop during the ebb tidal phase. This transport is an order of magnitude greater than the source of CH4 calculated from its concentration in the vent fluid and the rise height of the plume. From this range of methane fluxes, the source of 3He is estimated to be between 0.14 and 1.2 nmol/sec. In either case, the 3He source is significantly lower than expected from the spreading rate of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. From the inventory of methane in the rift valley adjacent to the vent, it appears that the average specific rate of oxidation is 2.6 to 23/yr, corresponding to a turnover time between 140 and 16 days. Vertical profiles of methane in the surrounding region often exhibited Gaussian-like distributions, and the variances appear to increase with distance from the vent. Using a Gaussian plume model, we obtained a range of vertical eddy diffusivities between 0.009 and 0.08 m2m2/sec. These high values may be due to tidally driven internal waves across the promontory on which the vent is located.