Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Survey of living conditions of Arctic indigenous peoples

Major findings of the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA) are: (1) A combination of traditional activities and cash employment is the prevailing lifestyle of Arctic indigenous peoples; (2) family ties, social support of each other, and traditional activities have a lot to do with why indigenous people choose to remain in Arctic communities; (3) well-being is closely related to job opportunities, locally available fish and game, and a sense of local control. Well-being and depression (and related problems like suicide) are flip sides of the same coin. Improving well-being may reduce social problems; and, (4) health conditions vary widely in the Arctic: three-in-four Greenlandic Inuit self-rate their health as at least very good compared with one-in-two Canadian and Alaska Inuit and one-in-five Chukotka indigenous people. Findings are based on 7,200 interviews in a probability sample of Inupiat settlement regions of Alaska, the four Inuit settlement regions of Canada, all of Greenland, and the Anadyrskij, Anadyr, Shmidtovs, Beringovskij, Chukotskij, Iujl'tinskij, Bilibinskij, Chaunskij, Providenskij, Uel'Kal' districts of Chukotka. Indigenous people and researchers from Greenland, Russia, Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland collaborated on all phases of the study.