3 resultados para GENERALIZED DISTRIBUTION

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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High-resolution quantitative diatom data are tabulated for the early part of the late Pliocene ( 3.25 to 2.08 Ma ) at DSDP Site 580 in the northwestern Pacific. Sample spacing averages 11 k.y. between 3.1 and 2.8 Ma, but increases to 14 to 19 k.y. prior to 3.1 Ma and after 2.8 Ma. Q-mode factor analysis of the middle Pliocene assemblage reveals four factors which explain 92.4% of the total variance of the 47 samples studied between 3.25 and 2.55 Ma. Three of the factors are closely related to modern subarctic, transitional, and subtropical elements, while the fourth factor, which is dominated by Coscinodiscus marginatus and the extinct Pliocene species Neodenticula kamtschatica, appears to correspond to a middle Pliocene precursor of the subarctic water mass. Knowledge of the modern and generalized Pliocene paleoclimatic relationships of various diatom taxa is used to generate a paleoclimate curve ("Twt") based on the ratio of warm-water (subtropical) to cold-water diatoms with warm-water transitional taxa (Thalassionema nitzschioides, Thalassiosira oestrupii, and Coscinodiscus radiatus) factored into the equation at an intermediate (0.5) value. The "Twt" ratios at more southerly DSDP Sites 579 and 578 are consistently higher (warmer) than those at Site 580 throughout the Pliocene, suggesting the validity of the ratio as a paleoclimatic index. Diatom paleoclimatic data reveal a middle Pliocene (3.1 to 3.0 Ma) warm interval at Site 580 during which paleotemperatures may have exceeded maximum Holocene values by 3 °- 5.5 °C at least three times. This middle Pliocene warm interval is also recognized by planktic foraminifers in the North Atlantic, and it appears to correspond with generalized depleted oxygen isotope values suggesting polar warming. The diatom "Twt" curve for Site 580 compares fairly well with radiolarian and silicoflagellate paleoclimatic curves for Site 580, planktic foraminiferal sea-surface temperature estimates for the North Atlantic, and benthic oxygen isotope curves for late Pliocene, although higher resolution studies on paired samples are required to test the correspondence of these various paleoclimatic indices.

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Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.