Conservation Projects (ConPro) data base from The Nature Conservancy and others about the protected areas with analyzed Conservation Action Plans (CAP) before 2009 (Appendix 1) and after 2009 (Appendix 2)

It is widely recognized that climate change poses significant challenges to the conservation of biodiversity. The need of dealing with relatively rapid and uncertain environmental change calls for the enhancement of adaptive capacity of both biodiversity and conservation management systems. Under the hypothesis that most of the conventional biodiversity conservation tools do not sufficiently stimulate a dynamic protected area management, which takes rapid environmental change into account, we evaluated almost 900 of The Nature Conservancy's site-based conservation action plans. These were elaborated before a so-called climate clinic in 2009, an intensive revision of existing plans and a climate change training of the planning teams. We also compare these results with plans elaborated after the climate clinic. Before 2009, 20% of the CAPs employed the term "climate change" in their description of the site viability, and 45% identified key ecological attributes that are related to climate. 8% of the conservation strategies were directly or indirectly related to climate change adaptation. After 2009, a significantly higher percentage of plans took climate change into account. Our data show that many planning teams face difficulties in integrating climate change in their management and planning. However, technical guidance and concrete training can facilitate management teams learning processes. Arising new tools of adaptive conservation management that explicitly incorporate options for handling future scenarios, vulnerability analyses and risk management into the management process have the potential of further making protected area management more proactive and robust against change.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.