Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Pollen and non-pollen palynomorph records of the Holocene part of the composite sediment core TMD from lake Tso Moriri (NW India) and of modern surface samples from the Tso Moriri region

The high-altitude lake Tso Moriri (32°55'46'' N, 78°19'24'' E; 4522 m a.s.l.) is situated at the margin of the ISM and westerly influences in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Human settlements are rare and domestic and wild animals are concentrating at the alpine meadows. A set of modern surface samples and fossil pollen from deep-water TMD core was evaluated with a focus on indicator types revealing human impact, grazing activities and lake system development during the last ca. 12 cal ka BP. Furthermore, the non-pollen palynomorph (NPP) record, comprising remains of limnic algae and invertebrates as well as fungal spores and charred plant tissue fragments, were examined in order to attest palaeolimnic phases and human impact, respectively. Changes in the early and middle Holocene limnic environment are mainly influenced by regional climatic conditions and glacier-fed meltwater flow in the catchment area. The NPP record indicates low lake productivity with high influx of freshwater between ca. 11.5 and 4.5 cal ka BP which is in agreement with the regional monsoon dynamics and published climate reconstructions. Geomorphologic observations suggest that during this period of enhanced precipitation the lake had a regular outflow and contributed large amounts of water to the Sutlej River, the lower reaches of which were integral part of the Indus Civilization area. The inferred minimum fresh water input and maximum lake productivity between ca. 4.5-1.8 cal ka BP coincides with the reconstruction of greatest aridity and glaciation in the Korzong valley resulting in significantly reduced or even ceased outflow. We suggest that lowered lake levels and river discharge on a larger regional scale may have caused irrigation problems and harvest losses in the Indus valley and lowlands occupied by sedentary agricultural communities. This scenario, in turn, supports the theory that, Mature Harappan urbanism (ca. 4.5-3.9 cal ka BP) emerged in order to facilitate storage, protection, administration, and redistribution of crop yields and secondly, the eventual collapse of the Harappan Culture (ca. 3.5-3 cal ka BP) was promoted by prolonged aridity. There is no clear evidence for human impact around Tso Moriri prior to ca. 3.7 cal ka BP, with a more distinct record since ca. 2.7 cal ka BP. This suggests that the sedimentary record from Tso Moriri primarily archives the regional climate history.

Table 3: Comparison of freshwater species in Ob and Yenisei during the 1997 cruise

Phytoplankton biomass distribution (chlorophyll a, chl. a) and species composition (cell numbers) were investigated during three expeditions to the Kara Sea with "Akademik Boris Petrov" (BP) in 1997, 1999, and 2000. The distribution of biomass in the estuaries of Ob and Yenisei showed a similar range in 1997 (0.2 to 3.2 µg/l) and 2000 (0.4 to 3.5 ug/l); higher chl. a concentrations during these two years were found in Yenisei than in Ob. In 1999, phytoplankton biomass in the Ob and Ob Estuary was much higher than in 1997 and 2000, with maximum values above 10.0 ug chl. a/l. In 1999, biomass in Yenisei was lower (1.5 to ~5 ug/l) than in Ob but slightly higher than in 1997 and in 2000. During the expedition in 2000, the research area extended farther to the north, here, lowest phytoplankton biomass during all three years was found. Typical summer values for integrated chl.a biomass (surface to bottom) ranged between 6 and 20 mg m**-2. Strong differences existed in species composition in both rivers, the estuaries, and the open Kara Sea. In general, three or four different populations could be distinguished in surface waters: (1) freshwater diatoms together with bluegreen algae in both rivers, (2) centric and small pennate diatoms mainly brackish species in the estuaries, (3) north of 74°N, brackish/marine species dominated, i.e. in 1999 Thalassiosira cfpunctigera and Chaetoceros spp prevailed in the phytoplankton bloom in Ob. (4) At the northernmost, almost marine stations, a region with a more heterogeneous composition of unicellular plankton was encountered. We assume, we found different seasonal signals of phytoplankton development during 1997/2000 and 1999, respectively. However, the yearly fluctuation of freshwater runoff of both rivers seems to have the strongest influence on the timing and duration of phytoplankton blooms, species compositions and biomass standing stocks during summer.