Chronostratigraphic framework at sites GeoB14403 and GeoB14414 from the Gela Basin, Sicily Channel

A multi-proxy chronological framework along with sequence-stratigraphic interpretations unveils composite Milankovitch cyclicity in the sedimentary records of the Last GlacialeInterglacial cycle at NE Gela Basin on the Sicilian continental margin. Chronostratigraphic data (including foraminifera-based eco-biostratigraphy and d18O records, tephrochronological markers and 14C AMS radiometric datings) was derived from the shallow-shelf drill sites GeoB14403 (54.6 m recovery) and GeoB14414 (27.5 m), collected with both gravity and drilled MeBo cores in 193 m and 146 m water depth, respectively. The recovered intervals record Marine Isotope Stages and Substages (MIS) from MIS 5 to MIS 1, thus comprising major stratigraphic parts of the progradational deposits that form the last 100-ka depositional sequence. Calibration of shelf sedimentary units with borehole stratigraphies indicates the impact of higher-frequency (20-ka) sea level cycles punctuating this 100-ka cycle. This becomes most evident in the alternation of thick interstadial highstand (HST) wedges and thinner glacial forced-regression (FSST) units mirroring seaward shifts in coastal progradation. Albeit their relatively short-lived depositional phase, these subordinate HST units form the bulk of the 100-ka depositional sequence. Two mechanisms are proposed that likely account for enhanced sediment accumulation ratios (SAR) of up to 200 cm/ka during these intervals: (1) intensified activity of deep and intermediate Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) associated to the drowning of Mediterranean shelves, and (2) amplified sediment flux along the flooded shelf in response to hyperpycnal plumes that generate through extreme precipitation events during overall arid conditions. Equally, the latter mechanism is thought to be at the origin of undulated features resolved in the acoustic records of MIS 5 Interstadials, which bear a striking resemblance to modern equivalents forming on late-Holocene prodeltas of other Mediterranean shallow-shelf settings.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, links model results in MATLAB format

Calving is a major mechanism of ice discharge of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a change in calving front position affects the entire stress regime of marine terminating glaciers. The representation of calving front dynamics in a 2-D or 3-D ice sheet model remains non-trivial. Here, we present the theoretical and technical framework for a level-set method, an implicit boundary tracking scheme, which we implement into the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This scheme allows us to study the dynamic response of a drainage basin to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the West Greenland Ice Sheet. The model robustly reproduces the high sensitivity of the glacier to calving, and we find that enhanced calving triggers significant acceleration of the ice stream. Upstream acceleration is sustained through a combination of mechanisms. However, both lateral stress and ice influx stabilize the ice stream. This study provides new insights into the ongoing changes occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ and emphasizes that the incorporation of moving boundaries and dynamic lateral effects, not captured in flow-line models, is key for realistic model projections of sea level rise on centennial timescales.

Age model of firn core DML05C98_32 (B32)

In the framework of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a comprehensive glaciological pre-site survey has been carried out on Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in the past decade. Within this survey, four intermediate-depth ice cores and 13 snow pits were analyzed for their ionic composition and interpreted with respect to the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic sulphate deposition. The comparison of the non-sea-salt (nss)-sulphate peaks that are related to the well-known eruptions of Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in AD 1991 revealed sulphate depositions of comparable size (15.8 ± 3.4 kg/km**2) in 11 snow pits. There is a tendency to higher annual concentrations for smaller snow-accumulation rates. The combination of seasonal sodium and annually resolved nss-sulphate records allowed the establishment of a time-scale derived by annual-layer counting over the last 2000 years and thus a detailed chronology of annual volcanic sulphate deposition. Using a robust outlier detection algorithm, 49 volcanic eruptions were identified between AD 165 and 1997. The dating uncertainty is ±3 years between AD 1997 and 1601, around ±5 years between AD 1601 and 1257, and increasing to ±24 years at AD 165, improving the accuracy of the volcanic chronology during the penultimate millennium considerably.

Coccolithophore sensitivities to changing carbonate chemistry - an ecological framework

Coccolithophores are a group of unicellular phytoplankton species whose ability to calcify has a profound influence on biogeochemical element cycling. Calcification rates are controlled by a large variety of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these factors, carbonate chemistry has gained considerable attention during the last years as coccolithophores have been identified to be particularly sensitive to ocean acidification. Despite intense research in this area, a general concept harmonizing the numerous and sometimes (seemingly) contradictory responses of coccolithophores to changing carbonate chemistry is still lacking to date. Here, we present the "substrate-inhibitor concept" which describes the dependence of calcification rates on carbonate chemistry speciation. It is based on observations that calcification rate scales positively with bicarbonate (HCO3-), the primary substrate for calcification, and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can limit cell growth, whereas it is inhibited by protons (H+). This concept was implemented in a model equation, tested against experimental data, and then applied to understand and reconcile the diverging responses of coccolithophorid calcification rates to ocean acidification obtained in culture experiments. Furthermore, we (i) discuss how other important calcification-influencing factors (e.g. temperature and light) could be implemented in our concept and (ii) embed it in Hutchinson's niche theory, thereby providing a framework for how carbonate chemistry-induced changes in calcification rates could be linked with changing coccolithophore abundance in the oceans. Our results suggest that the projected increase of H+ in the near future (next couple of thousand years), paralleled by only a minor increase of inorganic carbon substrate, could impede calcification rates if coccolithophores are unable to fully adapt. However, if calcium carbonate (CaCO3) sediment dissolution and terrestrial weathering begin to increase the oceans' HCO3- and decrease its H+ concentrations in the far future (10 -100 kyears), coccolithophores could find themselves in carbonate chemistry conditions which may be more favorable for calcification than they were before the Anthropocene.

Geochemistry and age model of sediment core BDP96-1

Within the framework of the Baikal Drilling Project (BDP), a 192 m long sediment core (BDP-96-1) was recovered from the Academician Ridge, a submerged topographic high between the North and Central Basins of Lake Baikal. Sedimentological, clay mineralogical and geochemical investigations were carried out on the core interval between 90 and 124 m depth, corresponding to ca. 2.4-3.4 Ma. The aim was to reconstruct the climatic and tectonic history of the continental region during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation in Late Pliocene time. A major climate change occurred in the Lake Baikal area at about 2.65 Ma. Enhanced physical weathering in the catchment, mirrored in the illite to smectite ratio, and temporarily reduced bioproduction in the lake, reflected by the diatom abundance, evidence a change towards a colder and more arid climate, probably associated with an intensification of the Siberian High. In addition, the coincident onset of distinct fluctuations in these parameters and in the Zr/Al ratio suggests the beginning of the Late Cenozoic high amplitude climate cycles at about 2.65 Ma. Fluctuations in the Zr/Al ratio are traced back to changes in the aeolian input, with high values in warmer, more humid phases due to a weaker Siberian High. Assuming that the sand content in the sediment reflects tectonic pulses, the Lake Baikal area was tectonically active during the entire investigated period, but in particular around 2.65 Ma. Tectonic movements have likely led to a gradual catchment change since about 3.15 Ma from the western towards the eastern lake surroundings, as indicated in the geochemistry and clay mineralogy of the sediments. The strong coincidence between tectonic and climatic changes in the Baikal area hints at the Himalayan uplift being one of the triggers for the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

A 20 m spatial resolution seamless multisource Digital Elevation/Depth Model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef

Hydrographers have traditionally referred to the nearshore area as the "white ribbon" area due to the challenges associated with the collection of elevation data in this highly dynamic transitional zone between terrestrial and marine environments. Accordingly, available information in this zone is typically characterised by a range of datasets from disparate sources. In this paper we propose a framework to 'fill' the white ribbon area of a coral reef system by integrating multiple elevation and bathymetric datasets acquired by a suite of remote-sensing technologies into a seamless digital elevation model (DEM). A range of datasets are integrated, including field-collected GPS elevation points, terrestrial and bathymetric LiDAR, single and multibeam bathymetry, nautical chart depths and empirically derived bathymetry estimations from optical remote sensing imagery. The proposed framework ranks data reliability internally, thereby avoiding the requirements to quantify absolute error and results in a high resolution, seamless product. Nested within this approach is an effective spatially explicit technique for improving the accuracy of bathymetry estimates derived empirically from optical satellite imagery through modelling the spatial structure of residuals. The approach was applied to data collected on and around Lizard Island in northern Australia. Collectively, the framework holds promise for filling the white ribbon zone in coastal areas characterised by similar data availability scenarios. The seamless DEM is referenced to the horizontal coordinate system MGA Zone 55 - GDA 1994, mean sea level (MSL) vertical datum and has a spatial resolution of 20 m.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.