6 resultados para Forecasts

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A portable Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS), model EM27/SUN, was deployed onboard the research vessel Polarstern to measure the column-average dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) by means of direct sunlight absorption spectrometry. We report on technical developments as well as data calibration and reduction measures required to achieve the targeted accuracy of fractions of a percent in retrieved XCO2 and XCH4 while operating the instrument under field conditions onboard the moving platform during a 6-week cruise on the Atlantic from Cape Town (South Africa, 34° S, 18° E; 5 March 2014) to Bremerhaven (Germany, 54° N, 19° E; 14 April 2014). We demonstrate that our solar tracker typically achieved a tracking precision of better than 0.05° toward the center of the sun throughout the ship cruise which facilitates accurate XCO2 and XCH4 retrievals even under harsh ambient wind conditions. We define several quality filters that screen spectra, e.g., when the field of view was partially obstructed by ship structures or when the lines-of-sight crossed the ship exhaust plume. The measurements in clean oceanic air, can be used to characterize a spurious air-mass dependency. After the campaign, deployment of the spectrometer alongside the TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) instrument at Karlsruhe, Germany, allowed for determining a calibration factor that makes the entire campaign record traceable to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. Comparisons to observations of the GOSAT satellite and concentration fields modeled by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) demonstrate that the observational setup is well suited to provide validation opportunities above the ocean and along interhemispheric transects.

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The North Water (NOW) Polynya is a regularly-forming area of open-water and thin-ice, located between northwestern Greenland and Ellesmere Island (Canada) at the northern tip of Baffin Bay. Due to its large spatial extent, it is of high importance for a variety of physical and biological processes, especially in wintertime. Here, we present a long-term remote sensing study for the winter seasons 1978/1979 to 2014/2015. Polynya characteristics are inferred from (1) sea ice concentrations and brightness temperatures from passive microwave satellite sensors (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E and AMSR2), Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSM/I-SSMIS)) and (2) thin-ice thickness distributions, which are calculated using MODIS ice-surface temperatures and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis data in a 1D thermodynamic energy-balance model. Daily ice production rates are retrieved for each winter season from 2002/2003 to 2014/2015, assuming that all heat loss at the ice surface is balanced by ice growth. Two different cloud-cover correction schemes are applied on daily polynya area and ice production values to account for cloud gaps in the MODIS composites. Our results indicate that the NOW polynya experienced significant seasonal changes over the last three decades considering the overall frequency of polynya occurrences, as well as their spatial extent. In the 1980s, there were prolonged periods of a more or less closed ice cover in northern Baffin Bay in winter. This changed towards an average opening on more than 85% of the days between November and March during the last decade. Noticeably, the sea ice cover in the NOW polynya region shows signs of a later-appearing fall freeze-up, starting in the late 1990s. Different methods to obtain daily polynya area using passive microwave AMSR-E/AMSR2 data and SSM/I-SSMIS data were applied. A comparison with MODIS data (thin-ice thickness < 20 cm) shows that the wintertime polynya area estimates derived by MODIS are about 30 to 40% higher than those derived using the polynya signature simulation method (PSSM) with AMSR-E data. In turn, the difference in polynya area between PSSM and a sea ice concentration (SIC) threshold of 70% is fairly low (approximately 10%) when applied to AMSR-E data. For the coarse-resolution SSM/I-SSMIS data, this difference is much larger, particularly in November and December. Instead of a sea ice concentration threshold, the PSSM method should be used for SSM/I-SSMIS data. Depending on the type of cloud-cover correction, the calculated ice production based on MODIS data reaches an average value of 264.4 ± 65.1 km**3 to 275.7 ± 67.4 km**3 (2002/2003 to 2014/2015) and shows a high interannual variability. Our achieved long-term results underline the major importance of the NOW polynya considering its influence on Arctic ice production and associated atmosphere/ocean processes.

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The satellite derived HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite data) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets have been validated against in-situ precipitation measurements from ship rain gauges and optical disdrometers over the open-ocean by applying a statistical analysis for binary forecasts. For this purpose collocated pairs of data were merged within a certain temporal and spatial threshold into single events, according to the satellites' overpass, the observation and the forecast times. HOAPS detects the frequency of precipitation well, while ERA-Interim strongly overestimates it, especially in the tropics and subtropics. Although precipitation rates are difficult to compare because along-track point measurements are collocated with areal estimates and the numbers of available data are limited, we find that HOAPS underestimates precipitation rates, while ERA-Interim's Atlantic-wide average precipitation rate is close to measurements. However, regionally averaged over latitudinal belts, there are deviations between the observed mean precipitation rates and ERA-Interim. The most obvious ERA-Interim feature is an overestimation of precipitation in the area of the intertropical convergence zone and the southern sub-tropics over the Atlantic Ocean. For a limited number of snow measurements by optical disdrometers it can be concluded that both HOAPS and ERA-Interim are suitable to detect the occurrence of solid precipitation.

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1. Developing a framework for assessing interactions between multiple anthropogenic stressors remains an important goal in environmental research. In coastal ecosystems, the relative effects of aspects of global climate change (e.g. CO2 concentrations) and localized stressors (e.g. eutrophication), in combination, have received limited attention. 2. Using a long-term (11 month) field experiment, we examine how epiphyte assemblages in a tropical seagrass meadow respond to factorial manipulations of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)) and nutrient enrichment. In situ CO2(aq) manipulations were conducted using clear, open-top chambers, which replicated carbonate parameter forecasts for the year 2100. Nutrient enrichment consisted of monthly additions of slow-release fertilizer, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), to the sediments at rates equivalent to theoretical maximum rates of anthropogenic loading within the region (1.54 g N/m**2/d and 0.24 g P m**2/d). 3. Epiphyte community structure was assessed on a seasonal basis and revealed declines in the abundance of coralline algae, along with increases in filamentous algae under elevated CO2(aq). Surprisingly, nutrient enrichment had no effect on epiphyte community structure or overall epiphyte loading. Interactions between CO2(aq) and nutrient enrichment were not detected. Furthermore, CO2(aq)-mediated responses in the epiphyte community displayed strong seasonality, suggesting that climate change studies in variable environments should be conducted over extended time-scales. 4. Synthesis. The observed responses indicate that for certain locations, global stressors such as ocean acidification may take precedence over local eutrophication in altering the community structure of seagrass epiphyte assemblages. Given that nutrient-driven algal overgrowth is commonly cited as a widespread cause of seagrass decline, our findings highlight that alternate climate change forces may exert proximate control over epiphyte community structure.

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Remote sensing instruments are key players to map land surface temperature (LST) at large temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we present how we combine passive microwave and thermal infrared data to estimate LST during summer snow-free periods over northern high latitudes. The methodology is based on the SSM/I-SSMIS 37 GHz measurements at both vertical and horizontal polarizations on a 25 km × 25 km grid size. LST is retrieved from brightness temperatures introducing an empirical linear relationship between emissivities at both polarizations as described in Royer and Poirier (2010). This relationship is calibrated at pixel scale, using cloud-free independent LST data from MODIS instruments. The SSM/I-SSMIS and MODIS data are synchronized by fitting a diurnal cycle model built on skin temperature reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting temperature dataset is provided at 25 km scale and at an hourly time step during the ten-year analysis period (2000-2011). This new product was locally evaluated at five experimental sites of the EU-PAGE21 project against air temperature measurements and meteorological model reanalysis, and compared to the MODIS LST product at both local and circumpolar scale. The results giving a mean RMSE of the order of 2.2 K demonstrate the usefulness of the microwave product, which is unaffected by clouds as opposed to thermal infrared products and offers a better resolution compared to model reanalysis.

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The southern Bellingshausen Sea (SBS) is a rapidly-changing part of West Antarctica, where oceanic and atmospheric warming has led to the recent basal melting and break-up of the Wilkins ice shelf, the dynamic thinning of fringing glaciers, and sea-ice reduction. Accurate sea-floor morphology is vital for understanding the continued effects of each process upon changes within Antarctica's ice sheets. Here we present a new bathymetric grid for the SBS compiled from shipborne echo-sounder, spot-sounding and sub-ice measurements. The 1-km grid is the most detailed compilation for the SBS to-date, revealing large cross-shelf troughs, shallow banks, and deep inner-shelf basins that continue inland of coastal ice shelves. The troughs now serve as pathways which allow warm deep water to access the ice fronts in the SBS. Our dataset highlights areas still lacking bathymetric constraint, as well as regions for further investigation, including the likely routes of palaeo-ice streams. The new compilation is a major improvement upon previous grids and will be a key dataset for incorporating into simulations of ocean circulation, ice-sheet change and history. It will also serve forecasts of ice stability and future sea-level contributions from ice loss in West Antarctica, required for the next IPCC assessment report in 2013.