Modeling the sensitivity of precipitation oxygen isotopes to the Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: A study using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0)

To understand the validity of d18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM). A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and orbital parameters) were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (d18Oprecip) in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover) played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and d18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and d18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Large reductions in d18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the d18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

Microalgal CO2 Sequestering - Modeling Microalgae Production Costs

Microalgae CO2 sequestering facilities might become an industrial reality if microalgae biomass could be produced at cost below $500.00 t-1. We develop a model for estimation of total production costs of microalgae as a function of known production-specific expenses, and incorporate into the model the effects of uncontrollable factors which affect known production-specific expenses. Random fluctuations were intentionally incorporated into the model, consequently into generated cost/technology scenarios, because each and every logically interconnected equipment/operation that is used in design/construction/operation/maintenance of a production process is inevitably subject to random cost/price fluctuations which can neither be eliminated nor a priori controlled. A total of 152 costs/technology scenarios were evaluated to find forty four scenarios in which Predicted Total Production Costs of Microalgae (PTPCM) was in the range $200 to $500 t-1 ha-1 y-1. An additional 24 scenarios were found with PTCPM in the range of $102 to $200 t-1 ha-1 y-1. These findings suggest that microalgae CO2 sequestering and the production of commercial compounds from microalgal biomass can be economically viable venture even today when microalgae production technology is still far from its optimum.

Investigation of the seasonality of N. pachyderma in the North Atlantic Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1 using an ecosystem modeling approach

Fossil shells of planktonic foraminifera serve as the prime source of information on past changes in surface ocean conditions. Because the population size of planktonic foraminifera species changes throughout the year, the signal preserved in fossil shells is biased towards the conditions when species production was at its maximum. The amplitude of the potential seasonal bias is a function of the magnitude of the seasonal cycle in production. Here we use a planktonic foraminifera model coupled to an ecosystem model to investigate to what degree seasonal variations in production of the species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma may affect paleoceanographic reconstructions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (~18-15 cal. ka B.P.) in the North Atlantic Ocean. The model implies that during Heinrich Stadial 1 the maximum seasonal production occurred later in the year compared to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21-19 cal. ka B.P.) and the pre-industrial era north of 30 ºN. A diagnosis of the model output indicates that this change reflects the sensitivity of the species to the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover and food supply, which collectively lead to shifts in the modeled maximum production from the Last Glacial Maximum to Heinrich Stadial 1 by up to six months. Assuming equilibrium oxygen isotopic incorporation in the shells of N. pachyderma, the modeled changes in seasonality would result in an underestimation of the actual magnitude of the meltwater isotopic signal recorded by fossil assemblages of N. pachyderma wherever calcification is likely to take place.