Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Ecological assessment data of the marine flora and fauna of Point Lookout in 2014 (PLEA)

In 2014, UniDive (The University of Queensland Underwater Club) conducted an ecological assessment of the Point Lookout Dive sites for comparison with similar surveys conducted in 2001. Involvement in the project was voluntary. Members of UniDive who were marine experts conducted training for other club members who had no, or limited, experience in identifying marine organisms and mapping habitats. Since the 2001 detailed baseline study, no similar seasonal survey has been conducted. The 2014 data is particularly important given that numerous changes have taken place in relation to the management of, and potential impacts on, these reef sites. In 2009, Moreton Bay Marine Park was re-zoned, and Flat Rock was converted to a marine national park zone (Green zone) with no fishing or anchoring. In 2012, four permanent moorings were installed at Flat Rock. Additionally, the entire area was exposed to the potential effects of the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, including flood plumes which carried large quantities of sediment into Moreton Bay and surrounding waters. The population of South East Queensland has increased from 2.49 million in 2001 to 3.18 million in 2011 (BITRE, 2013). This rapidly expanding coastal population has increased the frequency and intensity of both commercial and recreational activities around Point Lookout dive sites (EPA 2008). Methodology used for the PLEA project was based on the 2001 survey protocols, Reef Check Australia protocols and Coral Watch methods. This hybrid methodology was used to monitor substrate and benthos, invertebrates, fish, and reef health impacts. Additional analyses were conducted with georeferenced photo transects. The PLEA marine surveys were conducted over six weekends in 2014 totaling 535 dives and 376 hours underwater. Two training weekends (February and March) were attended by 44 divers, whilst biological surveys were conducted on seasonal weekends (February, May, July and October). Three reefs were surveyed, with two semi-permanent transects at Flat Rock, two at Shag Rock, and one at Manta Ray Bommie. Each transect was sampled once every survey weekend, with the transect tapes deployed at a depth of 10 m below chart datum. Fish populations were assessed using a visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape), 5 m high and 20 m in length. Fish families and species were chosen that are commonly targeted by recreational or commercial fishers, or targeted by aquarium collectors, and that were easily identified by their body shape. Rare or otherwise unusual species were also recorded. Target invertebrate populations were assessed using visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The diver surveying invertebrates conducted a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Target impacts were assessed using a visual census along the 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The transect was surveyed via a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Substrate surveys were conducted using the point sampling method, enabling percentage cover of substrate types and benthic organisms to be calculated. The substrate or benthos under the transect line was identified at 0.5m intervals, with a 5m gap between each of the three 20m segments. Categories recorded included various growth forms of hard and soft coral, key species/growth forms of algae, other living organisms (i.e. sponges), recently killed coral, and, non-living substrate types (i.e. bare rock, sand, rubble, silt/clay).

Seawater carbonate chemistry, length and survival of Inland silverside, Menidia beryllina, during experiments, 2012

Absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the world's oceans is causing mankind's 'other CO2 problem', ocean acidification. Although this process will challenge marine organisms that synthesize calcareous exoskeletons or shells, it is unclear how it will affect internally calcifying organisms, such as marine fish. Adult fish tolerate short-term exposures to CO2 levels that exceed those predicted for the next 300 years (~2,000 ppm), but potential effects of increased CO2 on growth and survival during the early life stages of fish remain poorly understood. Here we show that the exposure of early life stages of a common estuarine fish (Menidia beryllina) to CO2 concentrations expected in the world's oceans later this century caused severely reduced survival and growth rates. When compared with present-day CO2 levels (~400 ppm), exposure of M. beryllina embryos to ~1,000 ppm until one week post-hatch reduced average survival and length by 74% and 18%, respectively. The egg stage was significantly more vulnerable to high CO2-induced mortality than the post-hatch larval stage. These findings challenge the belief that ocean acidification will not affect fish populations, because even small changes in early life survival can generate large fluctuations in adult-fish abundance.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus) movement and feeding behaviour during experiments, 2011

Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits on the coral banks of the continental shelf in the south-western coastal area of the Gulf of Mexico off Texas

During U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) public hearings held in 1973, 1974 and 1975 prior to Texas Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas lease sales, concern was expressed by the National Marine Fisheries Service, scientists from Texas A&M and the University of Texas and private citizens over the possible environmental impact of oil and gas drilling and production operations on coral reefs and fishing banks in or adjacent to lease blocks to be sold. As a result, certain restrictive regulations concerning drilling operations in the vicinity of the well documented coral reefs and biostromal communities at the East and West Flower Gardens were established by BLM, and Signal Oil Company was required to provide a biological and geological baseline study of the less well known Stetson Bank before a drilling permit could be issued. Considering the almost total lack of knowledge of the geology and biotic communities associated with the South Texas OCS banks lying in or near lease blocks to be offered for sale in 1975, BLM contracted with Texas A&M University to provide the biological and geological baseline information required to facilitate judgments as to the extent and nature of restrictive regulations on drilling near these banks which might be required to insure their protection. In pursuit of this, scientists from Texas A&M University were to direct their attention toward assessments of ground fish populations, unique biological and geological features, substratum type and distribution, and the biotic and geologic relationships between these banks and those farther north.

Relative abundance of prokaryotic picoplankton populations in the Atlantic Ocean

Members of the prokaryotic picoplankton are the main drivers of the biogeochemical cycles over large areas of the world's oceans. In order to ascertain changes in picoplankton composition in the euphotic and twilight zones at an ocean basin scale we determined the distribution of 11 marine bacterial and archaeal phyla in three different water layers along a transect across the Atlantic Ocean from South Africa (32.9°S) to the UK (46.4°N) during boreal spring. Depth profiles down to 500 m at 65 stations were analysed by catalysed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) and automated epifluorescence microscopy. There was no obvious overall difference in microbial community composition between the surface water layer and the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) layer. There were, however, significant differences between the two photic water layers and the mesopelagic zone. SAR11 (35 ± 9%) and Prochlorococcus (12 ± 8%) together dominated the surface waters, whereas SAR11 and Crenarchaeota of the marine group I formed equal proportions of the picoplankton community below the DCM (both ~15%). However, due to their small cell sizes Crenarchaeota contributed distinctly less to total microbial biomass than SAR11 in this mesopelagic water layer. Bacteria from the uncultured Chloroflexi-related clade SAR202 occurred preferentially below the DCM (4-6%). Distinct latitudinal distribution patterns were found both in the photic zone and in the mesopelagic waters: in the photic zone, SAR11 was more abundant in the Northern Atlantic Ocean (up to 45%) than in the Southern Atlantic gyre (~25%), the biomass of Prochlorococcus peaked in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria bloomed in the nutrient-rich northern temperate waters and in the Benguela upwelling. In mesopelagic waters, higher proportions of SAR202 were present in both central gyre regions, whereas Crenarchaeota were clearly more abundant in the upwelling regions and in higher latitudes. Other phylogenetic groups such as the Planctomycetes, marine group II Euryarchaeota and the uncultured clades SAR406, SAR324 and SAR86 rarely exceeded more than 5% of relative abundance.

Physicochemical properties and fish occurrence in 35 Icelandic lakes housing Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

The common occurrence of parallel phenotypic patterns suggests that a strong relationship exists between ecological dynamics and micro-evolution. Comparative studies from a large number of populations under varying sets of ecological drivers could contribute to a better understanding of this relationship. We used data on morphology of arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and ecological factors from 35 Icelandic lakes to test the hypothesis that morphological patterns among monomorphic charr populations from different lakes are related to interlake variation in ecological characteristics. There is extensive phenotypic diversity among populations of Icelandic charr, and populations are easily distinguished based on overall body morphology. The results obtained in the present study showed that the morphological diversity of charr was related to large-scale diversity in lake ecology. Variation in charr morphology was related to water origin (e.g. spring fed versus run-off), bedrock age, and fish community structure. The present study shows how various ecological factors can shape the biological diversity that we observe.

Gasterosteus aculeatus egg traits and fish lengths vs. experiment setup

1) Our study addresses the role of non-genetic and genetic inheritance in shaping the adaptive potential of populations under a warming ocean scenario. We used a combined experimental approach (transgenerational plasticity and quantitative genetics) to partition the relative contribution of maternal vs. paternal (additive genetic) effects to offspring body size (a key component of fitness), and investigated a potential physiological mechanism (mitochondrial respiration capacities) underlying whole organism growth/size responses. 2) In very early stages of growth (up to 30 days), offspring body size of marine sticklebacks benefited from maternal transgenerational plasticity (TGP): offspring of mothers acclimated to17°C were larger when reared at 17°C, and offspring of mothers acclimated to 21°C were larger when reared at 21°C. The benefits of maternal TGP on body size were stronger and persisted longer (up to 60 days) for offspring reared in the warmer (21°C) environment, suggesting that maternal effects will be highly relevant for climate change scenarios in this system. 3) Mitochondrial respiration capacities measured on mature offspring (F1 adults) matched the pattern of TGP for juvenile body size, providing an intuitive mechanistic basis for the maternal acclimation persisting into adulthood. Size differences between temperatures seen at early growth stages remained in the F1 adults, linking offspring body size to maternal inheritance of mitochondria. 4) Lower maternal variance components in the warmer environment were mostly driven by mothers acclimated to ambient (colder) conditions, further supporting our tenet that maternal effects were stronger at elevated temperature. Importantly, all parent-offspring temperature combination groups showed genotype x environment (GxE) interactions, suggesting that reaction norms have the potential to evolve. 5) To summarise, transgenerational plasticity and genotype x environment interactions work in concert to mediate impacts of ocean warming on metabolic capacity and early growth of marine sticklebacks. TGP can buffer short-term detrimental effects of climate warming and may buy time for genetic adaptation to catch up, therefore markedly contributing to the evolutionary potential and persistence of populations under climate change.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and fish Amphiprion percula behaviour during experiments, 2012

Predicted future CO2 levels have been found to alter sensory responses and behaviour of marine fishes. Changes include increased boldness and activity, loss of behavioural lateralization, altered auditory preferences and impaired olfactory function. Impaired olfactory function makes larval fish attracted to odours they normally avoid, including ones from predators and unfavourable habitats. These behavioural alterations have significant effects on mortality that may have far-reaching implications for population replenishment, community structure and ecosystem function. However, the underlying mechanism linking high CO2 to these diverse responses has been unknown. Here we show that abnormal olfactory preferences and loss of behavioural lateralization exhibited by two species of larval coral reef fish exposed to high CO2 can be rapidly and effectively reversed by treatment with an antagonist of the GABA-A receptor. GABA-A is a major neurotransmitter receptor in the vertebrate brain. Thus, our results indicate that high CO2 interferes with neurotransmitter function, a hitherto unrecognized threat to marine populations and ecosystems. Given the ubiquity and conserved function of GABA-A receptors, we predict that rising CO2 levels could cause sensory and behavioural impairment in a wide range of marine species, especially those that tightly control their acid-base balance through regulatory changes in HCO3 and Cl levels.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and reproduction of a coral reef fish in a laboratory experiment

Ocean acidification is predicted to negatively impact the reproduction of many marine species, either by reducing fertilization success or diverting energy from reproductive effort. While recent studies have demonstrated how ocean acidification will affect larval and juvenile fishes, little is known about how increasing partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and decreasing pH might affect reproduction in adult fishes. We investigated the effects of near-future levels of pCO2 on the reproductive performance of the cinnamon anemonefish, Amphiprion melanopus, from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Breeding pairs were held under three CO2 treatments [Current-day Control (430 µatm), Moderate (584 µatm) and High (1032 µatm)] for a 9-month period that included the summer breeding season. Unexpectedly, increased CO2 dramatically stimulated breeding activity in this species of fish. Over twice as many pairs bred in the Moderate (67% of pairs) and High (55%) compared to the Control (27%) CO2 treatment. Pairs in the High CO2 group produced double the number of clutches per pair and 67% more eggs per clutch compared to the Moderate and Control groups. As a result, reproductive output in the High group was 82% higher than that in the Control group and 50% higher than that in the Moderate group. Despite the increase in reproductive activity, there was no difference in adult body condition among the three treatment groups. There was no significant difference in hatchling length between the treatment groups, but larvae from the High CO2 group had smaller yolks than Controls. This study provides the first evidence of the potential effects of ocean acidification on key reproductive attributes of marine fishes and, contrary to expectations, demonstrates an initially stimulatory (hormetic) effect in response to increased pCO2. However, any long-term consequences of increased reproductive effort on individuals or populations remain to be determined.