Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Physical oceanography during UPAT cruise to the Amvrakikos Gulf, August 2009

Oceanographic research in the Amvrakikos Gulf in Western Greece, a semi-enclosed embayment isolated from the Ionian Sea by a narrow, shallow sill, has shown that it is characterised by a fjord-like oceanographic regime. The Gulf is characterised by a well-stratified two layer structure in the water column made up of a surface layer and a bottom layer that are separated by a strong pycnocline. At the entrance over the sill, there is a brackish water outflow in the surface water and a saline water inflow in the near-bed region. This morphology and water circulation pattern makes the Amvrakikos Gulf the only Mediterranean Sea fjord. The investigations have also shown that the surface layer is well oxygenated, whereas in the pycnocline, the dissolved oxygen (DO) declines sharply and finally attains a value of zero, thus dividing the water column into oxic, dysoxic and anoxic environments. At the dysoxic/anoxic interface, at a depth of approximately 35 m, a sharp redox cline develops with Eh values between 0 and 120 mV occurring above and values between 0 and -250 mV occurring below, where oxic and anoxic biochemical processes prevail, respectively. On the seafloor underneath the anoxic waters, a black silt layer and a white mat cover resembling Beggiatoa-like cells are formed. The dysoxic/anoxic conditions appeared during the last 20 to 30 years and have been caused by the excessive use of fertilisers, the increase in animal stocks, intensive fish farming and domestic effluents. The inflicted dysoxia/anoxia has resulted in habitat loss on the seafloor over an area that makes up just over 50% of the total Gulf area and approximately 28% of the total water volume. Furthermore, anoxia is also considered to have been responsible for the sudden fish mortality which occurred in aquaculture rafts in the Gulf in February 2008. Therefore, anoxic conditions can be considered to be a potential hazard to the ecosystem and to the present thriving fishing and mariculture industry in the Gulf.

9-28 d of exposure to elevated pCO2 reduces avoidance of predator odour but had no effect on behavioural lateralization or swimming activity in a temperate wrasse(Ctenolabrus rupestris)

Most studies on the impact of near-future levels of carbon dioxide on fish behaviour report behavioural alterations, wherefore abnormal behaviour has been suggested to be a potential consequence of future ocean acidification and therefore a threat to ocean ecosystems. However, an increasing number of studies show tolerance of fish to increased levels of carbon dioxide. This variation among studies in susceptibility highlights the importance of continued investigation of the possible effects of elevated pCO2. Here, we investigated the impacts of increased levels of carbon dioxide on behaviour using the goldsinny wrasse (Ctenolabrus rupestris), which is a common species in European coastal waters and widely used as cleaner fish to control sea lice infestation in commercial fish farming in Europe. The wrasses were exposed to control water conditions (370 µatm) or elevated pCO2 (995 µatm) for 1 month, during which time behavioural trials were performed. We investigated the possible effects of CO2 on behavioural lateralization, swimming activity, and prey and predator olfactory preferences, all behaviours where disturbances have previously been reported in other fish species after exposure to elevated CO2. Interestingly, we failed to detect effects of carbon dioxide for most behaviours investigated, excluding predator olfactory cue avoidance, where control fish initially avoided predator cue while the high CO2 group was indifferent. The present study therefore shows behavioural tolerance to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the goldsinny wrasse. We also highlight that individual fish can show disturbance in specific behaviours while being apparently unaffected by elevated pCO2 in other behavioural tests. However, using experiments with exposure times measured in weeks to predict possible effects of long-term drivers, such as ocean acidification, has limitations, and the behavioural effects from elevated pCO2 in this experiment cannot be viewed as proof that these fish would show the same reaction after decades of evolution.

Effects of reduced and business-as-usual CO2 emission scenarios on the algal territories of the damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios.