7 resultados para Explanatory Variables Effect
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The objective of this study is the production of an Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) covering the entire European Alps. A unified statistical model that is based on Alpine-wide permafrost observations is used for debris and bedrock surfaces across the entire Alps. The explanatory variables of the model are mean annual air temperatures, potential incoming solar radiation and precipitation. Offset terms were applied to make model predictions for topographic and geomorphic conditions that differ from the terrain features used for model fitting. These offsets are based on literature review and involve some degree of subjective choice during model building. The assessment of the APIM is challenging because limited independent test data are available for comparison and these observations represent point information in a spatially highly variable topography. The APIM provides an index that describes the spatial distribution of permafrost and comes together with an interpretation key that helps to assess map uncertainties and to relate map contents to their actual expression in terrain. The map can be used as a first resource to estimate permafrost conditions at any given location in the European Alps in a variety of contexts such as research and spatial planning. Results show that Switzerland likely is the country with the largest permafrost area in the Alps, followed by Italy, Austria, France and Germany. Slovenia and Liechtenstein may have marginal permafrost areas. In all countries the permafrost area is expected to be larger than the glacier-covered area.
Resumo:
This study combined data on fin whale Balaenoptera physalus, humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae, minke whale B. acutorostrata, and sei whale B. borealis sightings from large-scale visual aerial and ship-based surveys (248 and 157 sightings, respectively) with synoptic acoustic sampling of krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica and Thysanoessa sp. abundance in September 2005 in West Greenland to examine the relationships between whales and their prey. Krill densities were obtained by converting relationships of volume backscattering strengths at multiple frequencies to a numerical density using an estimate of krill target strength. Krill data were vertically integrated in 25 m depth bins between 0 and 300 m to obtain water column biomass (g/m**2) and translated to density surfaces using ordinary kriging. Standard regression models (Generalized Additive Modeling, GAM, and Generalized Linear Modeling, GLM) were developed to identify important explanatory variables relating the presence, absence, and density of large whales to the physical and biological environment and different survey platforms. Large baleen whales were concentrated in 3 focal areas: (1) the northern edge of Lille Hellefiske bank between 65 and 67°N, (2) north of Paamiut at 63°N, and (3) in South Greenland between 60 and 61° N. There was a bimodal pattern of mean krill density between depths, with one peak between 50 and 75 m (mean 0.75 g/m**2, SD 2.74) and another between 225 and 275 m (mean 1.2 to 1.3 g/m**2, SD 23 to 19). Water column krill biomass was 3 times higher in South Greenland than at any other site along the coast. Total depth-integrated krill biomass was 1.3 x 10**9 (CV 0.11). Models indicated the most important parameter in predicting large baleen whale presence was integrated krill abundance, although this relationship was only significant for sightings obtained on the ship survey. This suggests that a high degree of spatio-temporal synchrony in observations is necessary for quantifying predator-prey relationships. Krill biomass was most predictive of whale presence at depths >150 m, suggesting a threshold depth below which it is energetically optimal for baleen whales to forage on krill in West Greenland.
Resumo:
Adipose tissue was sampled from the western Hudson Bay (WHB) subpopulation of polar bears at intervals from 1991 to 2007 to examine temporal trends of PCB and OCP levels both on an individual and sum-contaminant basis. We also determined levels and temporal trends of emerging polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and other current-use brominated flame retardants. Over the 17-year period, sum DDT (and p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDT) decreased (-8.4%/year); alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH) decreased (-11%/year); beta-HCH increased ( + 8.3%/year); and sum PCB and sum chlordane (CHL), both contaminants at highest concentrations in all years (>1 ppm), showed no distinct trends even when compared to previous data for this subpopulation dating back to 1968. Some of the less persistent PCB congeners decreased significantly (-1.6%/year to -6.3%/year), whereas CB153 levels tended to increase (+ 3.3%/year). Parent CHLs (c-nonachlor, t-nonachlor) declined, whereas non-monotonic trends were detected for metabolites (heptachlor epoxide, oxychlordane). sum chlorobenzene, octachlorostyrene, sum mirex, sum MeSO2-PCB and dieldrin did not significantly change. Increasing sum PBDE levels (+13%/year) matched increases in the four consistently detected congeners, BDE47, BDE99, BDE100 and BDE153. Although no trend was observed, total-(alpha)-HBCD was only detected post-2000. Levels of the highest concentration brominated contaminant, BB153, showed no temporal change. As long-term ecosystem changes affecting contaminant levels may also affect contaminant patterns, we examined the influence of year (i.e., aging or "weathering" of the contaminant pattern), dietary tracers (carbon stable isotope ratios, fatty acid patterns) and biological (age/sex) group on congener/metabolite profiles. Patterns of PCBs, CHLs and PBDEs were correlated with dietary tracers and biological group, but only PCB and CHL patterns were correlated with year. DDT patterns were not associated with any explanatory variables, possibly related to local DDT sources. Contaminant pattern trends may be useful in distinguishing the possible role of ecological/diet changes on contaminant burdens from expected dynamics due to atmospheric sources and weathering.
Resumo:
Surprisingly little is known about potential effects of ocean acidification on krill of the Northern Hemisphere as ecologically very important food web component. Sub-adult individuals of the northern Atlantic krill species Nyctiphanes couchii (caught at Austevoll near Bergen, Norway, in January 2013) were exposed in the laboratory to four different levels of pCO2 (430, 800, 1,100, and 1,700 µatm) for 5 weeks in order to assess potential changes in a set of biological response variables. Survival decreased and the frequency of moulting-related deaths increased with increasing pCO2. Survival was considerably reduced at relatively high pCO2 of 1,700 µatm and tended to be negatively affected at 1,100 µatm pCO2. However, the experimental results show no significant effects of pCO2 on inter-moult period and growth at pCO2 levels below 1,100 µatm. No differences in length measurements of the carapace and uropod were observed across pCO2 levels, indicating no effect of changing carbonate chemistry on the morphology of those calciferous parts of the exoskeleton. The results suggest that sub-adult N. couchii may not suffer dramatically from predicted near-future changes in pCO2. However, potential detrimental effects on the moulting process and associated higher mortality at 1,100 µatm pCO2 cannot be excluded. Further experiments are needed in order to investigate whether early life stages of N. couchii show a different sensitivity to elevated sea water pCO2 and whether those results are transferable to other krill species of the Northern Hemisphere.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to test whether elevated pCO2 predicted for the year 2100 (85.1 Pa) affects bleaching in the coral Seriatopora caliendrum (Ehrenberg 1834) either independently or interactively with high temperature (30.5 °C). Response variables detected the sequence of events associated with the onset of bleaching: reduction in the photosynthetic performance of symbionts as measured by maximum photochemical efficiency (F v/F m) and effective photochemical efficiency (delta F/F m') of PSII, declines in net photosynthesis (P net) and photosynthetic efficiency (alpha), and finally, reduced chlorophyll a and symbiont concentrations. S. caliendrum was collected from Nanwan Bay, Taiwan, and subjected to combinations of temperature (27.7 vs. 30.5 °C) and pCO2 (45.1 vs. 85.1 Pa) for 14 days. High temperature reduced values of all dependent variables (i.e., bleaching occurred), but high pCO2 did not affect Symbiodinium photophysiology or productivity, and did not cause bleaching. These results suggest that short-term exposure to 81.5 Pa pCO2, alone and in combination with elevated temperature, does not cause or affect coral bleaching.
Resumo:
Effects of CO2 concentration on elemental composition of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were studied in phosphorus-limited, continuous cultures that were acclimated to experimental conditions for 30 d prior to the first sampling. We determined phytoplankton and bacterial cell numbers, nutrients, particulate components like organic carbon (POC), inorganic carbon (PIC), nitrogen (PN), organic phosphorus (POP), transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON), in addition to carbonate system parameters at CO2 levels of 180, 380 and 750 µatm. No significant difference between treatments was observed for any of the measured variables during repeated sampling over a 14 d period. We considered several factors that might lead to these results, i.e. light, nutrients, carbon overconsumption and transient versus steady-state growth. We suggest that the absence of a clear CO2 effect during this study does not necessarily imply the absence of an effect in nature. Instead, the sensitivity of the cell towards environmental stressors such as CO2 may vary depending on whether growth conditions are transient or sufficiently stable to allow for optimal allocation of energy and resources. We tested this idea on previously published data sets where PIC and POC divided by the corresponding cell abundance of E. huxleyi at various pCO2 levels and growth rates were available.