4 resultados para Estimate model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Bromoform (CHBr3) is one important precursor of atmospheric reactive bromine species that are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and stratosphere. In the open ocean bromoform production is linked to phytoplankton that contains the enzyme bromoperoxidase. Coastal sources of bromoform are higher than open ocean sources. However, open ocean emissions are important because the transfer of tracers into higher altitude in the air, i.e. into the ozone layer, strongly depends on the location of emissions. For example, emissions in the tropics are more rapidly transported into the upper atmosphere than emissions from higher latitudes. Global spatio-temporal features of bromoform emissions are poorly constrained. Here, a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemistry model (MPIOM-HAMOCC) is used to simulate bromoform cycling in the ocean and emissions into the atmosphere using recently published data of global atmospheric concentrations (Ziska et al., 2013) as upper boundary conditions. Our simulated surface concentrations of CHBr3 match the observations well. Simulated global annual emissions based on monthly mean model output are lower than previous estimates, including the estimate by Ziska et al. (2013), because the gas exchange reverses when less bromoform is produced in non-blooming seasons. This is the case for higher latitudes, i.e. the polar regions and northern North Atlantic. Further model experiments show that future model studies may need to distinguish different bromoform-producing phytoplankton species and reveal that the transport of CHBr3 from the coast considerably alters open ocean bromoform concentrations, in particular in the northern sub-polar and polar regions.

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Greenland ice core records indicate that the last deglaciation (~7-21 ka) was punctuated by numerous abrupt climate reversals involving temperature changes of up to 5°C-10°C within decades. However, the cause behind many of these events is uncertain. A likely candidate may have been the input of deglacial meltwater, from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), to the high-latitude North Atlantic, which disrupted ocean circulation and triggered cooling. Yet the direct evidence of meltwater input for many of these events has so far remained undetected. In this study, we use the geochemistry (paired Mg/Ca-d18O) of planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core south of Iceland to reconstruct the input of freshwater to the northern North Atlantic during abrupt deglacial climate change. Our record can be placed on the same timescale as ice cores and therefore provides a direct comparison between the timing of freshwater input and climate variability. Meltwater events coincide with the onset of numerous cold intervals, including the Older Dryas (14.0 ka), two events during the Allerød (at ~13.1 and 13.6 ka), the Younger Dryas (12.9 ka), and the 8.2 ka event, supporting a causal link between these abrupt climate changes and meltwater input. During the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, we find that periods of warming are associated with an increased meltwater flux to the northern North Atlantic, which in turn induces abrupt cooling, a cessation in meltwater input, and eventual climate recovery. This implies that feedback between climate and meltwater input produced a highly variable climate. A comparison to published data sets suggests that this feedback likely included fluctuations in the southern margin of the LIS causing rerouting of LIS meltwater between southern and eastern drainage outlets, as proposed by Clark et al. (2001, doi:10.1126/science.1062517).

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Bedforms such as dunes and ripples are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas, and commonly described as triangular shapes from which height and length are calculated to estimate hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic parameters. Natural bedforms, however, present a far more complicated morphology; the difference between natural bedform shape and the often assumed triangular shape is usually neglected, and how this may affect the flow is unknown. This study investigates the shapes of natural bedforms and how they influence flow and shear stress, based on four datasets extracted from earlier studies on two rivers (the Rio Paraná in Argentina, and the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands). The most commonly occurring morphological elements are a sinusoidal stoss side made of one segment and a lee side made of two segments, a gently sloping upper lee side and a relatively steep (6 to 21°) slip face. A non-hydrostatic numerical model, set up using Delft3D, served to simulate the flow over fixed bedforms with various morphologies derived from the identified morphological elements. Both shear stress and turbulence increase with increasing slip face angle and are only marginally affected by the dimensions and positions of the upper and lower lee side. The average slip face angle determined from the bed profiles is 14°, over which there is no permanent flow separation. Shear stress and turbulence above natural bedforms are higher than above a flat bed but much lower than over the often assumed 30° lee side angle.

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Drought is a key factor affecting forest ecosystem processes at different spatio-temporal scales. For accurately modeling tree functioning ? and thus for producing reliable simulations of forest dynamics ? the consideration of the variability in the timing and extent of drought effects on tree growth is essential, particularly in strongly seasonal climates such as in the Mediterranean area. Yet, most dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) do not include this intra-annual variability of drought effects on tree growth. We present a novel approach for linking tree-ring data to drought simulations in DVMs. A modified forward model of tree-ring width (VS-Lite) was used to estimate seasonal- and site-specific growth responses to drought of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), which were subsequently implemented in the DVM ForClim. Ring-width data from sixteen sites along a moisture gradient from Central Spain to the Swiss Alps, including the dry inner Alpine valleys, were used to calibrate the forward ring-width model, and inventory data from managed Scots pine stands were used to evaluate ForClim performance. The modified VS-Lite accurately estimated the year-to-year variability in ring-width indices and produced realistic intra-annual growth responses to soil drought, showing a stronger relationship between growth and drought in spring than in the other seasons and thus capturing the strategy of Scots pine to cope with drought. The ForClim version including seasonal variability in growth responses to drought showed improved predictions of stand basal area and stem number, indicating the need to consider intra-annual differences in climate-growth relationships in DVMs when simulating forest dynamics. Forward modeling of ring-width growth may be a powerful tool to calibrate growth functions in DVMs that aim to simulate forest properties in across multiple environments at large spatial scales.