Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.

Effects of ocean acidification on visual risk assessment in coral reef fishes

1. With the global increase in CO2 emissions, there is a pressing need for studies aimed at understanding the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. Several studies have reported that exposure to CO2 impairs chemosensory responses of juvenile coral reef fishes to predators. Moreover, one recent study pointed to impaired responses of reef fish to auditory cues that indicate risky locations. These studies suggest that altered behaviour following exposure to elevated CO2 is caused by a systemic effect at the neural level. 2. The goal of our experiment was to test whether juvenile damselfish Pomacentrus amboinensis exposed to different levels of CO2 would respond differently to a potential threat, the sight of a large novel coral reef fish, a spiny chromis, Acanthochromis polyancanthus, placed in a watertight bag. 3. Juvenile damselfish exposed to 440 (current day control), 550 or 700 µatm CO2 did not differ in their response to the chromis. However, fish exposed to 850 µatm showed reduced antipredator responses; they failed to show the same reduction in foraging, activity and area use in response to the chromis. Moreover, they moved closer to the chromis and lacked any bobbing behaviour typically displayed by juvenile damselfishes in threatening situations. 4. Our results are the first to suggest that response to visual cues of risk may be impaired by CO2 and provide strong evidence that the multi-sensory effects of CO2 may stem from systematic effects at the neural level.