Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

An approach for particle sinking velocity measurements in the 3-400 µm size range and considerations on the effect of temperature on sinking rates

The flux of organic particles below the mixed layer is one major pathway of carbon from the surface into the deep ocean. The magnitude of this export flux depends on two major processes-remineralization rates and sinking velocities. Here, we present an efficient method to measure sinking velocities of particles in the size range from approximately 3-400 µm by means of video microscopy (FlowCAM®). The method allows rapid measurement and automated analysis of mixed samples and was tested with polystyrene beads, different phytoplankton species, and sediment trap material. Sinking velocities of polystyrene beads were close to theoretical values calculated from Stokes' Law. Sinking velocities of the investigated phytoplankton species were in reasonable agreement with published literature values and sinking velocities of material collected in sediment trap increased with particle size. Temperature had a strong effect on sinking velocities due to its influence on seawater viscosity and density. An increase in 9 °C led to a measured increase in sinking velocities of 40 %. According to this temperature effect, an average temperature increase in 2 °C as projected for the sea surface by the end of this century could increase sinking velocities by about 6 % which might have feedbacks on carbon export into the deep ocean.