5 resultados para Dependent Failures, Interactive Failures, Interactive Coefficients, Reliability, Complex System

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The combination of global and local stressors is leading to a decline in coral reef health globally. In the case of eutrophication, increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) are largely attributed to local land use changes. From the global perspective, increased atmospheric CO2 levels are not only contributing to global warming but also ocean acidification (OA). Both eutrophication and OA have serious implications for calcium carbonate production and dissolution among calcifying organisms. In particular, benthic foraminifera precipitate the most soluble form of mineral calcium carbonate (high-Mg calcite), potentially making them more sensitive to dissolution. In this study, a manipulative orthogonal two-factor experiment was conducted to test the effects of dissolved inorganic nutrients and OA on the growth, respiration and photophysiology of the large photosymbiont-bearing benthic foraminifer, Marginopora rossi. This study found the growth rate of M. rossi was inhibited by the interaction of eutrophication and acidification. The relationship between M. rossi and its photosymbionts became destabilized due to the photosymbiont's release from nutrient limitation in the nitrate-enriched treatment, as shown by an increase in zooxanthellae cells per host surface area. Foraminifers from the OA treatments had an increased amount of Chl a per cell, suggesting a greater potential to harvest light energy, however, there was no net benefit to the foraminifer growth. Overall, this study demonstrates that the impacts of OA and eutrophication are dose dependent and interactive. This research indicates an OA threshold at pH 7.6, alone or in combination with eutrophication, will lead to a decline in M. rossi calcification. The decline in foraminifera calcification associated with pollution and OA will have broad ecological implications across their ubiquitous range and suggests that without mitigation it could have serious implications for the future of coral reefs.

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Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions as well as organic carbon and total nitrogen contents are reported for Site 645 in Baffin Bay and Sites 646 and 647 in the Labrador Sea. Both low-resolution analyses (1 sample/section) and high-resolution results (up to 7 samples/section) are presented. These records indicate that large-scale changes in productivity since the middle Miocene have occurred in Baffin Bay. Such changes are not evident in samples from the Labrador Sea. Isotopic records of all the sites are influenced strongly by rapidly changing influxes that combine terrigenous debris with planktonic production. In parts of the cores, relationships to other phenomena, such as ice stages, are present. However, these correlations are not common and indicate that these events were masked by the dynamic changes in sources of organic matter occurring in this complex system.

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A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects.

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Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

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Gypsum grains were identified in Miocene-Pleistocene sediment cores from two deep-water ODP sites, Site 918 off the SE Greenland margin and Site 887 in the Gulf of Alaska, and in Holocene sediment cores from shallow-water localities in Disenchantment Bay and Muir Inlet in southern Alaska. Although initial morphologic and textural observations suggested a complex system in which the gypsum may have had more than one origin, quantitative sulfur isotope analyses of the gypsum provide evidence of its detrital nature. d34S values in gypsum from southern Alaska range between +0.0 and +7.1 per mil. Gypsum has d34S values between -27.1 and -27.5 per mil in the Gulf of Alaska and values between -28.5 and +0.2 per mil off the SE Greenland margin. All of these isotopic signatures are too highly depleted in d34S to have precipitated from seawater, present or past. In addition there is no significant change in d34S values for gypsum crystals with differing physical characteristics (abraded vs. unabraded) from the same stratigraphic horizon, suggesting all the gypsum is detrital regardless of the degree of abrasion. The isotopic and physical evidence, in combination with the onshore geology the environmental setting, and site characteristics of the gypsum-bearing marine localities, lead us to propose that the ultimate source of the gypsum is precipitation from freeze-induced terrestrial sediment or soil brines. Furthermore the combined evidence suggests that the subsequent occurrence of gypsum in glacimarine sediments results from ice-rafting (by icebergs or sea ice) of the frozen regolith and/or, in the proximal glacimarine setting of southern Alaska, very rapid burial via turbidity currents.