10 resultados para Dependent Failures, Interactive Failures, Interactive Coefficients, Reliability, Complex System
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The combination of global and local stressors is leading to a decline in coral reef health globally. In the case of eutrophication, increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) are largely attributed to local land use changes. From the global perspective, increased atmospheric CO2 levels are not only contributing to global warming but also ocean acidification (OA). Both eutrophication and OA have serious implications for calcium carbonate production and dissolution among calcifying organisms. In particular, benthic foraminifera precipitate the most soluble form of mineral calcium carbonate (high-Mg calcite), potentially making them more sensitive to dissolution. In this study, a manipulative orthogonal two-factor experiment was conducted to test the effects of dissolved inorganic nutrients and OA on the growth, respiration and photophysiology of the large photosymbiont-bearing benthic foraminifer, Marginopora rossi. This study found the growth rate of M. rossi was inhibited by the interaction of eutrophication and acidification. The relationship between M. rossi and its photosymbionts became destabilized due to the photosymbiont's release from nutrient limitation in the nitrate-enriched treatment, as shown by an increase in zooxanthellae cells per host surface area. Foraminifers from the OA treatments had an increased amount of Chl a per cell, suggesting a greater potential to harvest light energy, however, there was no net benefit to the foraminifer growth. Overall, this study demonstrates that the impacts of OA and eutrophication are dose dependent and interactive. This research indicates an OA threshold at pH 7.6, alone or in combination with eutrophication, will lead to a decline in M. rossi calcification. The decline in foraminifera calcification associated with pollution and OA will have broad ecological implications across their ubiquitous range and suggests that without mitigation it could have serious implications for the future of coral reefs.
Resumo:
Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions as well as organic carbon and total nitrogen contents are reported for Site 645 in Baffin Bay and Sites 646 and 647 in the Labrador Sea. Both low-resolution analyses (1 sample/section) and high-resolution results (up to 7 samples/section) are presented. These records indicate that large-scale changes in productivity since the middle Miocene have occurred in Baffin Bay. Such changes are not evident in samples from the Labrador Sea. Isotopic records of all the sites are influenced strongly by rapidly changing influxes that combine terrigenous debris with planktonic production. In parts of the cores, relationships to other phenomena, such as ice stages, are present. However, these correlations are not common and indicate that these events were masked by the dynamic changes in sources of organic matter occurring in this complex system.
Resumo:
A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143Nd/144Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects.
Resumo:
Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
Resumo:
Gypsum grains were identified in Miocene-Pleistocene sediment cores from two deep-water ODP sites, Site 918 off the SE Greenland margin and Site 887 in the Gulf of Alaska, and in Holocene sediment cores from shallow-water localities in Disenchantment Bay and Muir Inlet in southern Alaska. Although initial morphologic and textural observations suggested a complex system in which the gypsum may have had more than one origin, quantitative sulfur isotope analyses of the gypsum provide evidence of its detrital nature. d34S values in gypsum from southern Alaska range between +0.0 and +7.1 per mil. Gypsum has d34S values between -27.1 and -27.5 per mil in the Gulf of Alaska and values between -28.5 and +0.2 per mil off the SE Greenland margin. All of these isotopic signatures are too highly depleted in d34S to have precipitated from seawater, present or past. In addition there is no significant change in d34S values for gypsum crystals with differing physical characteristics (abraded vs. unabraded) from the same stratigraphic horizon, suggesting all the gypsum is detrital regardless of the degree of abrasion. The isotopic and physical evidence, in combination with the onshore geology the environmental setting, and site characteristics of the gypsum-bearing marine localities, lead us to propose that the ultimate source of the gypsum is precipitation from freeze-induced terrestrial sediment or soil brines. Furthermore the combined evidence suggests that the subsequent occurrence of gypsum in glacimarine sediments results from ice-rafting (by icebergs or sea ice) of the frozen regolith and/or, in the proximal glacimarine setting of southern Alaska, very rapid burial via turbidity currents.
Resumo:
Source routes and Spatial Diffusion of capuchin monkeys over the past 6 million years, rebuilt in the SPREAD 1.0.6 from the MCC tree. The map shows the 10 different regions to which distinctive samples were associated. The different transmission routes have been calculated from the average rate over time. Only rates with Bayes factor> 3 were considered as significantly different from zero. Significant diffusion pathways are highlighted with color varying from dark brown to red, being the dark brown less significant rates and deep red the most significant rates.
Resumo:
Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 lead to acidification of the ocean and alter seawater carbonate chemistry, which can negatively impact calcifying organisms, including mollusks. In estuaries, exposure to elevated CO2 levels often co-occurs with other stressors, such as reduced salinity, which enhances the acidification trend, affects ion and acid-base regulation of estuarine calcifiers and modifies their response to ocean acidification. We studied the interactive effects of salinity and partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) on biomineralization and energy homeostasis in juveniles of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, a common estuarine bivalve. Juveniles were exposed for 11 weeks to one of two environmentally relevant salinities (30 or 15 PSU) either at current atmospheric PCO2 (400 µatm, normocapnia) or PCO2 projected by moderate IPCC scenarios for the year 2100 (700-800 µatm, hypercapnia). Exposure of the juvenile oysters to elevated PCO2 and/or low salinity led to a significant increase in mortality, reduction of tissue energy stores (glycogen and lipid) and negative soft tissue growth, indicating energy deficiency. Interestingly, tissue ATP levels were not affected by exposure to changing salinity and PCO2, suggesting that juvenile oysters maintain their cellular energy status at the expense of lipid and glycogen stores. At the same time, no compensatory upregulation of carbonic anhydrase activity was found under the conditions of low salinity and high PCO2. Metabolic profiling using magnetic resonance spectroscopy revealed altered metabolite status following low salinity exposure; specifically, acetate levels were lower in hypercapnic than in normocapnic individuals at low salinity. Combined exposure to hypercapnia and low salinity negatively affected mechanical properties of shells of the juveniles, resulting in reduced hardness and fracture resistance. Thus, our data suggest that the combined effects of elevated PCO2 and fluctuating salinity may jeopardize the survival of eastern oysters because of weakening of their shells and increased energy consumption.
Resumo:
Due to the ongoing effects of climate change, phytoplankton are likely to experience enhanced irradiance, more reduced nitrogen, and increased water acidity in the future ocean. Here, we used Thalassiosira pseudonana as a model organism to examine how phytoplankton adjust energy production and expenditure to cope with these multiple, interrelated environmental factors. Following acclimation to a matrix of irradiance, nitrogen source, and CO2 levels, the diatom's energy production and expenditures were quantified and incorporated into an energetic budget to predict how photosynthesis was affected by growth conditions. Increased light intensity and a shift from inline image to inline image led to increased energy generation, through higher rates of light capture at high light and greater investment in photosynthetic proteins when grown on inline image. Secondary energetic expenditures were adjusted modestly at different culture conditions, except that inline image utilization was systematically reduced by increasing pCO2. The subsequent changes in element stoichiometry, biochemical composition, and release of dissolved organic compounds may have important implications for marine biogeochemical cycles. The predicted effects of changing environmental conditions on photosynthesis, made using an energetic budget, were in good agreement with observations at low light, when energy is clearly limiting, but the energetic budget over-predicts the response to inline image at high light, which might be due to relief of energetic limitations and/or increased percentage of inactive photosystem II at high light. Taken together, our study demonstrates that energetic budgets offered significant insight into the response of phytoplankton energy metabolism to the changing environment and did a reasonable job predicting them.
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA) effects on larvae are partially attributed for the rapidly declining oyster production in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. This OA effect is a serious concern in SE Asia, which produces >80% of the world's oysters. Because climate-related stressors rarely act alone, we need to consider OA effects on oysters in combination with warming and reduced salinity. Here, the interactive effects of these three climate-related stressors on the larval growth of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, were examined. Larvae were cultured in combinations of temperature (24 and 30 °C), pH (8.1 and 7.4), and salinity (15 psu and 25 psu) for 58 days to the early juvenile stage. Decreased pH (pH 7.4), elevated temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu) significantly delayed pre- and post-settlement growth. Elevated temperature lowered the larval lipid index, a proxy for physiological quality, and negated the negative effects of decreased pH on attachment and metamorphosis only in a salinity of 25 psu. The negative effects of multiple stressors on larval metamorphosis were not due to reduced size or depleted lipid reserves at the time of metamorphosis. Our results supported the hypothesis that the C. gigas larvae are vulnerable to the interactions of OA with reduced salinity and warming in Yellow Sea coastal waters now and in the future.
Resumo:
Ocean warming and acidification are serious threats to marine life. While each stressor alone has been studied in detail, their combined effects on the outcome of ecological interactions are poorly understood. We measured predation rates and predator selectivity of two closely related species of damselfish exposed to a predatory dottyback. We found temperature and CO2 interacted synergistically on overall predation rate, but antagonistically on predator selectivity. Notably, elevated CO2 or temperature alone reversed predator selectivity, but the interaction between the two stressors cancelled selectivity. Routine metabolic rates of the two prey showed strong species differences in tolerance to CO2 and not temperature, but these differences did not correlate with recorded mortality. This highlights the difficulty of linking species-level physiological tolerance to resulting ecological outcomes. This study is the first to document both synergistic and antagonistic effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a crucial ecological process like predator-prey dynamics.