Soil characteristics and decomposition of organic matter on Anchorage, Signy and Falkland Islands

Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems have poorly developed soils and currently experience one of the greatest rates of climate warming on the globe. We investigated the responsiveness of organic matter decomposition in Maritime Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems to climate change, using two study sites in the Antarctic Peninsula region (Anchorage Island, 67°S; Signy Island, 61°S), and contrasted the responses found with those at the cool temperate Falkland Islands (52°S). Our approach consisted of two complementary methods: (1) Laboratory measurements of decomposition at different temperatures (2, 6 and 10 °C) of plant material and soil organic matter from all three locations. (2) Field measurements at all three locations on the decomposition of soil organic matter, plant material and cellulose, both under natural conditions and under experimental warming (about 0.8 °C) achieved using open top chambers. Higher temperatures led to higher organic matter breakdown in the laboratory studies, indicating that decomposition in Maritime Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems is likely to increase with increasing soil temperatures. However, both laboratory and field studies showed that decomposition was more strongly influenced by local substratum characteristics (especially soil N availability) and plant functional type composition than by large-scale temperature differences. The very small responsiveness of organic matter decomposition in the field (experimental temperature increase <1 °C) compared with the laboratory (experimental increases of 4 or 8 °C) shows that substantial warming is required before significant effects can be detected.

Sediment organic matter, grain size, and results of prediction models from northern North Atlantic and Arctic Seas

Sediment samples and hydrographic conditions were studied at 28 stations around Iceland. At these sites, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts were conducted to collect hydrographic data and multicorer casts were conductd to collect data on sediment characteristics including grain size distribution, carbon and nitrogen concentration, and chloroplastic pigment concentration. A total of 14 environmental predictors were used to model sediment characteristics around Iceland on regional geographic space. For these, two approaches were used: Multivariate Adaptation Regression Splines (MARS) and randomForest regression models. RandomForest outperformed MARS in predicting grain size distribution. MARS models had a greater tendency to over- and underpredict sediment values in areas outside the environmental envelope defined by the training dataset. We provide first GIS layers on sediment characteristics around Iceland, that can be used as predictors in future models. Although models performed well, more samples, especially from the shelf areas, will be needed to improve the models in future.

Tab. 2,3,4 Specific resistivity of calculated models for the soundings in Lapland

Geoelectrical soundings were carried out in 29 different places in order to find permafrost and to measure its thickness. In most places above timber Iine a permafrost thickness of 10-50 m was recorded. Permafrost was found at sites with thin snow cover during winter. Here, deflation phenomena on the summits of fjells indicate the occurence of permafrost, Vegetation type might be a good indicator of permafrost, too. It seems obvious that permafrost exists extensively on fjell summits of northern Finland.

Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

DISPRO datasets for validation of coastal hydrodynamic models

Appropriate field data are required to check the reliability of hydrodynamic models simulating the dispersion of soluble substances in the marine environment. This study deals with the collection of physical measurements and soluble tracer data intended specifically for this kind of validation. The intensity of currents as well as the complexity of topography and tides around the Cap de La Hague in the center of the English Channel makes it one of the most difficult areas to represent in terms of hydrodynamics and dispersion. Controlled releases of tritium - in the form of HTO - are carried out in this area by the AREVA-NC plant, providing an excellent soluble tracer. A total of 14 493 measurements were acquired to track dispersion in the hours and days following a release. These data, supplementing previously gathered data and physical measurements (bathymetry, water-surface levels, Eulerian and Lagrangian current studies) allow us to test dispersion models from the hour following release to periods of several years which are not accessible with dye experiments. The dispersion characteristics are described and methods are proposed for comparing models against measurements. An application is proposed for a 2 dimensions high-resolution numerical model. It shows how an extensive dataset can be used to build, calibrate and validate several aspects of the model in a highly dynamic and macrotidal area: tidal cycle timing, tidal amplitude, fixed-point current data, hodographs. This study presents results concerning the model's ability to reproduce residual Lagrangian currents, along with a comparison between simulation and high-frequency measurements of tracer dispersion. Physical and tracer data are available from the SISMER database of IFREMER (www.ifremer.fr/sismer/catal). This tool for validation of models in macro-tidal seas is intended to be an open and evolving resource, which could provide a benchmark for dispersion model validation.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Molecular and isotopic properties of gases from ODP Holes of ODP Leg 204

We report and discuss molecular and isotopic properties of hydrate-bound gases from 55 samples and void gases from 494 samples collected during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 204 at Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon. Gas hydrates appear to crystallize in sediments from two end-member gas sources (deep allochthonous and in situ) as mixtures of different proportions. In an area of high gas flux at the Southern Summit of the ridge (Sites 1248-1250), shallow (0-40 m below the seafloor [mbsf]) gas hydrates are composed of mainly allochthonous mixed microbial and thermogenic methane and a small portion of thermogenic C2+ gases, which migrated vertically and laterally from as deep as 2- to 2.5-km depths. In contrast, deep (50-105 mbsf) gas hydrates at the Southern Summit (Sites 1248 and 1250) and on the flanks of the ridge (Sites 1244-1247) crystallize mainly from microbial methane and ethane generated dominantly in situ. A small contribution of allochthonous gas may also be present at sites where geologic and tectonic settings favor focused vertical gas migration from greater depth (e.g., Sites 1244 and 1245). Non-hydrocarbon gases such as CO2 and H2S are not abundant in sampled hydrates. The new gas geochemical data are inconsistent with earlier models suggesting that seafloor gas hydrates at Hydrate Ridge formed from gas derived from decomposition of deeper and older gas hydrates. Gas hydrate formation at the Southern Summit is explained by a model in which gas migrated from deep sediments, and perhaps was trapped by a gas hydrate seal at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). Free gas migrated into the GHSZ when the overpressure in gas column exceeded sealing capacity of overlaying sediments, and precipitated as gas hydrate mainly within shallow sediments. The mushroom-like 3D shape of gas hydrate accumulation at the summit is possibly defined by the gas diffusion aureole surrounding the main migration conduit, the decrease of gas solubility in shallow sediment, and refocusing of gas by carbonate and gas hydrate seals near the seafloor to the crest of the local anticline structure.

Chemistry of eastern tropical Atlantic porewater

Distributions of pore water O2, NO-2, NO-3, NH+4, Si(OH)4, PO[3-]4, Mn[2+], F-, and T.A. were determined at 15 stations in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. While overall profile characteristics are consistent with previous models of organic matter diagenesis, profile shapes suggest that a deep reaction layer, rich in organic C, is also present at many sites. While it is unlikely that the oxidation of organic C in this layer has had a major effect on the ocean C cycle, pore water profile shapes are significantly altered. Despite exposure to seawater SO[2-]4 concentrations for > 1000 years, decomposition of the organic matter in the layer appears to be restricted to oxic and suboxic processes. These results suggest major differences in organic carbon decomposition and preservation under oxic/suboxic and anoxic conditions. Present-day benthic fluxes are largest adjacent to the eastern boundary coastal upwelling region and similar in magnitude to values reported for the eastern Pacific. Preliminary estimates suggest that the benthic respiration in the eastern 1/3 of the North Atlantic south of 20°N may alone account for >20% of the total deep North Atlantic respiration. Combining these results with estimates of organic C burial and deep water-column decomposition suggests that this region is a major location of organic C input into the deep sea.

Susceptibility, d13C and Iron of Site 171-1051

Current models of the global carbon cycle lack natural mechanisms to explain known large, transient shifts in past records of the stable carbon-isotope ratio (delta13C) of carbon reservoirs. The injection into the atmosphere of ~1,200-2,000 gigatons of carbon, as methane from the decomposition of sedimentary methane hydrates, has been proposed to explain a delta13C anomaly associated with high-latitude warming and changes in marine and terrestrial biota near the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary, about 55 million years ago. These events may thus be considered as a natural 'experiment' on the effects of transient greenhouse warming. Here we use physical, chemical and spectral analyses of a sediment core from the western North Atlantic Ocean to show that two-thirds of the carbon-isotope anomaly occurred within no more than a few thousand years, indicating that carbon was catastrophically released into the ocean and atmosphere. Both the delta13C anomaly and biotic changes began between 54.93 and 54.98 million years ago, and are synchronous in oceans and on land. The longevity of the delta13C anomaly suggests that the residence time of carbon in the Palaeocene global carbon cycle was ~120 thousand years, which is similar to the modelled response after a massive input of methane. Our results suggest that large natural perturbations to the global carbon cycle have occurred in the past-probably by abrupt failure of sedimentary carbon reservoirs-at rates that are similar to those induced today by human activity.