Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Mangrove cover in the Red Sea (1972-2013)

Across the Earth, mangroves play an important role in coastal protection, both as nurseries and carbon sinks. However, due to various human and environmental impacts, the coverage of mangroves is declining on a global scale. The Red Sea is in the northern-most area of the distribution range of mangroves. Little is known about the surface covered by mangroves at this northern limit or about the changes experienced by Red Sea mangroves. We sought to study changes in the coverage of Red Sea mangroves by using multi-temporal Landsat data (1972, 2000 and 2013). Interestingly, our results show that there has been no decline in mangrove stands in the Red Sea but rather a slight increase. The area covered by mangroves is about 69 km**2 along the African shore and 51 km**2 along the Arabian Peninsula shore. From 1972 to 2013, the area covered by mangroves increased by about 0.29%/y. We conclude that the trend exhibited by Red Sea mangroves departs from the general global decline of mangroves. Along the Red Sea, mangroves expanded by 12% over the 41 years from 1972 to 2013. Losses to Red Sea mangroves, mostly due to coastal development, have been compensated by afforestation projects.

Gametogenic cycle of Mesodesma donacium

Large-scale environmental patterns in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) show major changes during strong El Niño episodes, leading to the mass mortality of dominant species in coastal ecosystems. Here we explore how these changes affect the life-history traits of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. Growth and mortality rates under normal temperature and salinity were compared to those under anomalous (El Niño) higher temperature and reduced salinity. Moreover, the reproductive spatial-temporal patterns along the distribution range were studied, and their relationship to large-scale environmental variability was assessed. M. donacium is highly sensitive to temperature changes, supporting the hypothesis of temperature as the key factor leading to mass mortality events of this clam in northern populations. In contrast, this species, particularly juveniles, was remarkably tolerant to low salinity, which may be related to submarine groundwater discharge in Hornitos, northern Chile. The enhanced osmotic tolerance by juveniles may represent an adaptation of early life stages allowing settlement in vacant areas at outlets of estuarine areas. The strong seasonality in freshwater input and in upwelling strength seems to be linked to the spatial and temporal patterns in the reproductive cycle. Owing to its origin and thermal sensitivity, the expansion and dominance of M. donacium from the Pliocene/Pleistocene transition until the present seem closely linked to the establishment and development of the cold HCS. Therefore, the recurrence of warming events (particularly El Niño since at least the Holocene) has submitted this cold-water species to a continuous local extinction-recolonization process.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with spider crab Hyas araneus, 2011

The combined effects of ocean warming and acidification were compared in larvae from two populations of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus, from one of its southernmost populations (around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N, habitat temperature 3-18°C; collection: January 2008, hatch: January-February 2008) and from one of its northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N, habitat temperature 0-6°C; collection: July 2008, hatch: February-April 2009). Larvae were exposed to temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C combined with present-day normocapnic (380 ppm CO2) and projected future CO2 concentrations (710 and 3,000 ppm CO2). Calcium content of whole larvae was measured in freshly hatched Zoea I and after 3, 7 and 14 days during the Megalopa stage. Significant differences between Helgoland and Svalbard Megalopae were observed at all investigated temperatures and CO2 conditions. Under 380 ppm CO2, the calcium content increased with rising temperature and age of the larvae. At 3 and 9°C, Helgoland Megalopae accumulated more calcium than Svalbard Megalopae. Elevated CO2 levels, especially 3,000 ppm, caused a reduction in larval calcium contents at 3 and 9°C in both populations. This effect set in early, at 710 ppm CO2 only in Svalbard Megalopae at 9°C. Furthermore, at 3 and 9°C Megalopae from Helgoland replenished their calcium content to normocapnic levels and more rapidly than Svalbard Megalopae. However, Svalbard Megalopae displayed higher calcium contents under 3,000 ppm CO2 at 15°C. The findings of a lower capacity for calcium incorporation in crab larvae living at the cold end of their distribution range suggests that they might be more sensitive to ocean acidification than those in temperate regions.

Chemistry and biological processes during experiments with spider crab Hyas araneus

The combined effects of ocean warming and acidification were compared in larvae from two popula- tions of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus, from one of its southernmost populations (around Helgo- land, southern North Sea, 54°N, habitat temperature 3-18°C; collection: January 2008, hatch: January-February 2008) and from one of its northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N, habitat temperature 0-6°C; collection: July 2008, hatch: February-April 2009). Larvae were exposed to temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C combined with present-day normocapnic (380 ppm CO2) and projected future CO2 concentrations (710 and 3,000 ppm CO2). Calcium content of whole larvae was measured in freshly hatched Zoea I and after 3, 7 and 14 days during the Megalopa stage. Significant differences between Helgoland and Svalbard Megalopae were observed at all investigated temperatures and CO2 condi- tions. Under 380 ppm CO2, the calcium content increased with rising temperature and age of the larvae. At 3 and 9°C, Helgoland Megalopae accumulated more calcium than Svalbard Megalopae. Elevated CO2 levels, especially 3,000 ppm, caused a reduction in larval calcium contents at 3 and 9°C in both populations. This effect set in early, at 710 ppm CO2 only in Svalbard Megalopae at 9°C. Fur- thermore, at 3 and 9°C Megalopae from Helgoland replenished their calcium content to normocapnic levels and more rapidly than Svalbard Megalopae. However, Svalbard Megalopae displayed higher calcium contents under 3,000 ppm CO2 at 15°C. The findings of a lower capacity for calcium incorporation in crab larvae living at the cold end of their distribution range suggests that they might be more sensitive to ocean acidification than those in temperate regions.

(Figure 2) Range and distribution chart of dinoflagellate cysts recovered from Campanian to Maestrichtian sediments at DSDP Hole 95-612

Fifty-nine samples from the basal 110 m of DSDP Hole 612 (United States Atlantic Margin) were analyzed for palynomorph content. In total, 84 species and subspecies of dinoflagellate cysts were recorded which, on comparison with published data and shipboard analyses, indicate a Campanian to Maestrichtian age for this part of the succession. The Campanian/Maestrichtian contact is taken to occur in the upper part of Core 612-69.

Calcareous nannofossil range-distribution and zonation of sediments from three ODP Leg 205 holes

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 205 of the research vessel JOIDES Resolution was a return expedition to the Leg 170 sites located on the Costa Rica subduction zone. Here the entire sediment cover on the incoming Cocos plate, including significantly large sections of calcareous nannofossil ooze and chalk, is underthrust beneath the overriding Caribbean plate. The large amount of subducted carbonate produces characteristic styles of volcanic and seismic activity that differ from those found farther along strike in Nicaragua and elsewhere. An understanding of the fate of subducted carbonate sediment sections is an essential component to our understanding of the global biogeochemical cycling of carbon dioxide. Because Leg 205 drilling operations were performed within meters of the Leg 170 drill sites occupied during October-December 1996, minimal coring was done during Leg 205. Although the biostratigraphy of the Leg 170 sites has since been documented in detail, questions remained regarding the age and nature of a gabbro sill that was only partially penetrated by coring during Leg 170. Coring operations during Leg 205 fully penetrated the gabbro sill, followed by an additional 12 m of sediments below the sill, and then ~160 m of gabbro. Coring halted at 600 meters below seafloor (mbsf). Calcareous nannofossil age dating of the sediments immediately above the igneous sill, as well as the sediment between the sill and the lower igneous unit, indicates a minimum age of 15.6 Ma and a maximum age of 18.2 Ma for the sediments. This implies that the sill was emplaced more recently than 18.2 Ma. The calcareous nannofossil assemblage in baked sediments in contact with the top of the lower igneous unit also suggests that the maximum age for emplacement is 18.2 Ma. At Site 1254, coring was accomplished between 150 and 230 mbsf (prism section), and from 300 to 367.5 mbsf (prism and through the décollement into the underthrust section). In the interval from 150 to 322 mbsf, the biostratigraphic analysis of calcareous nannofossils suggests that the sediments are early Pleistocene age between 150 and 161 mbsf, late Pliocene age from 161 to 219 mbsf, and early Pliocene age from 219 to 222 mbsf (no younger than 3.75 Ma). The lack of marker fossils in the interval of sediments cored from 300 to 350.6 mbsf does not allow for any age determinations; however, sediments from 351.6 to 359.81 mbsf could be age dated and are also early Pliocene age, but no younger than 3.75 Ma.

Particle concentration and size distribution in the NGRIP ice core

A novel laser microparticle detector used in conjunction with continuous sample melting has provided a more than 1500 m long record of particle concentration and size distribution of the NGRIP ice core, covering continuously the period approximately from 9.5-100 kyr before present; measurements were at 1.65 m depth resolution, corresponding to approximately 35-200 yr. Particle concentration increased by a factor of 100 in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the Preboreal, and sharp variations of concentration occurred synchronously with rapid changes in the delta18O temperature proxy. The lognormal mode µ of the volume distribution shows clear systematic variations with smaller modes during warmer climates and coarser modes during colder periods. We find µ ~ 1.7 µm diameter during LGM and µ ~ 1.3 µm during the Preboreal. On timescales below several 100 years µ and the particle concentration exhibit a certain degree of independence present especially during warm periods, when µ generally is more variable. Using highly simplifying considerations for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles we infer that (1) the observed changes of µ in the ice largely reflect changes in the size of airborne particles above the ice sheet and (2) changes of µ are indicative of changes in long range atmospheric transport time. From the observed size changes we estimate shorter transit times by roughly 25% during LGM compared to the Preboreal. The associated particle concentration increase from more efficient long range transport is estimated to less than one order of magnitude.