Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Sedimentology and stable oxygen isotope record of the northern South China Sea

High-resolution sediment records from the South China Sea reveal a winter monsoon dominated glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated Holocene regime during the last glacial cycle. A fundamental change between regimes occurred during deglaciation through a series of millennial reoccurrences of century-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon (EAM) climate. These abrupt events centered at 17.0, 15.9, 15.5, 14.7, 13.5, 13.9, 13.3, 12.1, 11.5, and 10.7 14C ka correlate well with the millennial-scale events in the Santa Barbara Basin and the Arabian Sea, i.e. a relationship between EAM and El Niño/Southern Oscillation systems. The abrupt increases in summer monsoon imply enhanced heat transport from low-latitude sea area to the midlatitude/high-latitude land area. The phase relationship between events of EAM and ice sheet may reflect a faster EAM response and a slower ice sheet response to the insolation change. A far-reaching conclusion is that the EAM might have triggered the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

Climatic impact on Al, K, Sc and Ti in marine sediments: Evidence from ODP Site 1144, South China Sea

Al, K, Sc and Ti concentrations of the terrestrial material-dominant sediments from ODP site 1144 were reported. Comparison between the bulk and the acid-leached sediments indicates that about 20~30% of the Al, K and Sc in the bulk sediments are not hosted in terrestrial detritus, rather they are of authigenic origin. However, authigenic Ti is negligible. The results indicate that Ti rather than Al is the best proxy for terrestrial materials. Significant climate controls are displayed in the Al/Ti, K/Ti and Sc/Ti variation patterns both for the bulk and the acid leached sediments. Such variation patterns can be mainly accounted for in terms of climate change in their provenance areas in South China. Elevated Al/Ti, K/Ti and Sc/Ti ratios during interglacial periods indicate that chemical weathering then was stronger than during glacial periods, which might be related to a more humid climate in interglacial periods.

Stable foraminifer isotope composition and age of ODP Sites 184-1147 and 184-1148, South China Sea

Sites 1147 (18°50.11'N, 116°33.28'E; water depth = 3246 m) and 1148 (18°50.17'N, 116°33.94'E; water depth = 3294 m) are located on the lowermost continental slope off southern China near the continent/ocean crust boundary of the South China Sea Basin. Site 1147 is located upslope ~0.45 nmi west of Site 1148. Three advanced piston corer holes at Site 1147 and two extended core barrel holes at Site 1148 were cored and combined into a composite (spliced) stratigraphic section, which provided a relatively continuous profile for the lower Oligocene to Holocene (Wang, Prell, Blum, et al., 2000, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.184.2000; Jian, et al., 2001, doi:10.1007/BF02907088) for studying stratigraphy and paleoceanography. A total of 1047 planktonic foraminifers stable isotope measurements were performed on 975 samples covering the upper 409.58 meters composite depth (mcd) at ~42-cm intervals (Tables T1, T2), and a total of 1864 benthic foraminifers measurements were performed on 1650 samples in the upper 837.11 mcd at ~51-cm intervals (Tables T3, T4). We significantly improved the time resolution of the benthic stable isotope record in the upper 476.68 mcd by reducing the average sample spacing to ~29 cm. This translates into an average sampling resolution of ~16 k.y. for the Miocene sequence and ~8 k.y. for the Pliocene-Holocene interval, assuming a change in sedimentation rates from ~1.8 to ~3.5 cm/k.y., as suggested by shipboard stratigraphy. These data sets provide the basis for upcoming studies to establish an oxygen isotope stratigraphy and examine the Neogene evolution of deep and surface water signatures (temperature, salinity, and nutrients) in the South China Sea.

Elements and mineralogical compostions from different sediment cores off the southern China Sea

The mineralogy, major and trace elements, and neodymium and strontium isotopes of surface sediments in the South China Sea (SCS) are documented with the aim of investigating their applicability in provenance tracing. The results indicate that mineralogical compositions alone do not clearly identify the sources for the bulk sediments in the SCS. The Nd isotopic compositions of the SCS sediments show a clear zonal distribution. The most negative epsilon-Neodymium values were obtained for sediments from offshore South China (-13.0 to -10.7), while those from offshore Indochina are slightly more positive (-10.7 to -9.4). The Nd isotopic compositions of the sediments from offshore Borneo are even higher, with epsilon-Neodymium ranging from -8.8 to -7.0, and the sediments offshore from the southern Philippine Arc have the most positive epsilon-Neodymium values, from -3.7 to +5.3. This zonal distribution in epsilon-Neodymium is in good agreement with the Nd isotopic compositions of the sediments supplied by river systems that drain into the corresponding regions, indicating that Nd isotopic compositions are an adequate proxy for provenance tracing of SCS sediments. Sr isotopic compositions, in contrast, can only be used to identify the sediments from offshore South China and offshore from the southern Philippine Arc, as the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of sediments from other regions overlapped. Similar zonal distributions are also apparent in a La-Th-Sc discrimination diagram. Sediments fromthewestmargin of the SCS, such as those fromBeibuwan Bay, offshore fromHainan Island, offshore from Indochina, and from the Sunda Shelf plot in the same field, while those offshore from the northeastern SCS, offshore from Borneo, and offshore from the southern Philippine Arc plot in distinct fields. Thus, the La-Th-Sc discrimination diagram, coupledwith Nd isotopes, can be used to trace the provenance of SCS sediments. Using this method, we re-assessed the provenance changes of sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1148 since the late Oligocene. The results indicate that sediments deposited after 23.8 Ma (above 455 mcd: meters composite depth) were supplied mainly from the eastern South China Block, with a negligible contribution from the interior of the South China Block. Sediments deposited before 26 Ma (beneath 477 mcd) were supplied mainly from the North Palawan Continental Terrane, which may retain the geochemical characteristics of the materials covered on the late Mesozoic granitoids along the coastal South China. For that the North Palawan Continental Terrane is presently located within the southern Philippine Arc but was located close to ODP Site 1148 in the late Oligocene. The weathering products of volcanic material associated with the extension of the SCS ocean crust also contributed to these sediments. The rapid change in sediment source at 26-23.8 Ma probably resulted from a sudden cessation of sediment supply from the North Palawan Continental Terrane. Wesuggest that the North Palawan Continental Terrane drifted southwards alongwith the extension of the SCS ocean crust during that time, and when the basin was large enough, the supply of sediment from the south to ODP Site 1148 at the north slope may have ceased.

Geochemical and Nd isotopic investigations of sediments from the South China Sea

Secular variations in geochemistry and Nd isotopic data have been documented in sediment samples at ODP Site 1148 in the South China Sea. Major and trace elements show significant changes at ca. 29.5 Ma and 26-23 Ma, whereas epsilon-Nd values show a single change at ca. 26-23 Ma. Increases in Al/Ti, Al/K, Rb/Sr, and La/Lu ratios and a decrease in the Th/La ratio of the sediments beginning at 29.5 Ma are consistent with more intense chemical weathering in the source region. The abrupt change in Nd isotopes and geochemistry at ca. 26-23 Ma coincides with a major discontinuity in the sedimentology and physical properties of the sediments, implying a drastic change in sedimentary provenance and environment at the drill site. Comparison of the Nd isotopes of sediments from major rivers flowing into the South China Sea suggests that pre-27 Ma sediments were dominantly derived from a southwestern provenance (Indochina-Sunda Shelf and possibly northwestern Borneo), whereas post-23 Ma sediments were derived from a northern provenance (South China). This change in provenance from southwest to north was largely caused by ridge jumping during seafloor spreading of the South China Sea, associated with a southwestward expansion of the ocean basin crust and a global rise in sea level. Thus, the geochemical and Nd isotopic changes in the sediments at ODP Site 1148 are interpreted as a response to a major plate reorganization in SE Asia at ca. 25 Ma.

Neogene floras and palaeoclimatic estimates from various sites of South-West China

Neogene climates and vegetation history of western Yunnan are reconstructed on the basis of known fossil plants using the Coexistence Approach (CA) and Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA). Four Neogene leaf floras from Tengchong, Jianchuan and Eryuan in southwestern China are analyzed by the CA, and the paleoclimatic data of one Miocene carpoflora from Longling and three Pliocene palynofloras from Longling, Yangyi and Eryuan are used for comparison. The Miocene vegetation of the whole of West Yunnan is subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, and a similar mean annual precipitation is inferred for Tengchong, Longling and Jianchuan. However, by the Late Pliocene a large difference in vegetation occurred between the two slopes of Gaoligong Mountain, western Yunnan. The region of Tengchong retained a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest vegetation, whereas in Yangyi and Eryuan a vertical vegetation zonation had developed, which consists, in ascending order, of humid evergreen broad-leaved, needle and broad-leaved mixed evergreen, and coniferous forests. Distinctively, the Late Pliocene vegetational patterns of West Yunnan were already very similar to those of the present, and the Pliocene mean annual precipitation in Tengchong was markedly higher than that of Yangyi and Eryuan. Considering that the overall vegetation of West Yunnan and the precipitation at Yangyi and Eryuan have undergone no distinct change since the Late Pliocene, we conclude that the Hengduan Mountains on the northern boundary of West Yunnan must have arisen after the Miocene and approached their highest elevation before the Late Pliocene. Furthermore, the fact of the eastern portion of the Tibetan Plateau underwent a slight uplift after the Late Pliocene is also supported.

Uranium-Thorium dating and sea surface temperatures from corals from Hainan Island, South China Sea

Three mid-Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) records spanning more than 30 years were reconstructed for the northern South China Sea using Sr/Ca ratios in Porites corals. The results indicate warmer than present climates between circa 6100 yr B.P. and circa 6500 yr B.P. with the mid-Holocene average minimum monthly winter SSTs, the average maximum monthly summer SSTs, and the average annual SSTs being about 0.5°-1.4°C, 0°-2.0°C, and 0.2°-1.5°C higher, respectively, than they were during 1970-1994. Summer SSTs decrease from circa 6500 yr B.P. to circa 6100 yr B.P. with a minimum centered at circa 6300 yr B.P. The higher average summer SSTs are consistent with a stronger summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene, and the decreasing trend indicates a secular decrease of summer monsoon strength, which reflects the change in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles were apparent in both the mid-Holocene coral and modern instrumental records. However, the ENSO variability in the mid-Holocene SSTs was weaker than that in the modern record, and the SST record with the highest summer temperatures from circa 6460 yr B.P. to 6496 yr B.P. shows no robust ENSO cycle. This agrees with other studies that indicate that stronger summer monsoon circulation may have been associated with suppressed ENSO variability during the mid-Holocene.

Planktonic foraminifera stratigraphy and datums of ODP Site 184-1143 and Hole 184-1146A, South China Sea

The biostratigraphy of Miocene-age sediment samples recovered from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1143 and 1146, South China Sea, is presented. The preservation of the planktonic foraminifers recovered from both sites varies widely, from poor to very good. The volume of biogenic sediment in the >63-µm size fraction also varies considerably, with many samples being dominated by mud. In comparison to shipboard biostratigraphy, based on core catcher analyses with a depth resolution of ~10 m, we analyzed samples from the two stratigraphic columns every 2-3 m (~45- to 93-k.y. resolution). The placement of planktonic foraminifer zonal boundaries was made at a resolution of ~1.5 m at Site 1146 and ~3.0 m at Site 1143. The higher resolution has resulted in significant changes in biostratigraphic zonal boundary locations compared to shipboard results. For the time interval of 5.54-10.49 Ma, the changes in zonation reveal similar age-depth models at both sites, with three segments of changing sedimentation rate through the upper Miocene, though the differences in sedimentation rates at Site 1146 are subtler than those at Site 1143. The boundary between lithologic Units II and III at Site 1146 corresponds to a sharp change in sedimentation rate (58 to 21 m/m.y.) at 15.1 Ma (the first occurrence of Orbulina suturalis). At this site, the interval from 16.4 to 15.1 Ma is characterized by very high mass accumulation rates in the noncarbonate fraction. Above this interval the carbonate fraction becomes increasingly important in the sediment flux to the South China Sea. At Site 1143, sedimentation rates increase from 8 to 99 m/m.y. at 8.6 Ma. This corresponds to a dramatic increase in both carbonate and noncarbonate mass accumulation rates at the site, but no change in lithology.

Response of a natural phytoplankton community from the Qingdao coast (Yellow Sea, China) to variable CO2 levels over a short-term incubation experiment

Since marine phytoplankton play a vital role in stabilizing earth's climate by removing significant amount of atmospheric CO2, their responses to increasing CO2 levels are indeed vital to address. The responses of a natural phytoplankton community from the Qingdao coast (NW Yellow Sea, China) was studied under different CO2 levels in microcosms. HPLC pigment analysis revealed the presence of diatoms as a dominant microalgal group; however, members of chlorophytes, prasinophytes, cryptophytes and cyanophytes were also present. delta 13CPOM values indicated that the phytoplankton community probably utilized bicarbonate ions as dissolved inorganic carbon source through a carbon concentration mechanism (CCM) under low CO2 levels, and diffusive CO2 uptake increased upon the increase of external CO2 levels. Although, considerable increase in phytoplankton biomass was noticed in all CO2 treatments, CO2-induced effects were absent. Higher net nitrogen uptake under low CO2 levels could be related to the synthesis of CCM components. Flow cytometry analysis showed slight reduction in the abundance of Synechococcus and pico-eukaryotes under the high CO2 treatments. Diatoms did not show any negative impact in response to increasing CO2 levels; however, chlorophytes revealed a reverse tend. Heterotrophic bacterial count enhanced with increasing CO2 levels and indicated higher abundance of labile organic carbon. Thus, the present study indicates that any change in dissolved CO2 concentrations in this area may affect phytoplankton physiology and community structure and needs further long-term study.