4 resultados para Covariance matrix estimation

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

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We present a novel graphical user interface program GrafLab (GRAvity Field LABoratory) for spherical harmonic synthesis (SHS) created in MATLAB®. This program allows to comfortably compute 38 various functionals of the geopotential up to ultra-high degrees and orders of spherical harmonic expansion. For the most difficult part of the SHS, namely the evaluation of the fully normalized associated Legendre functions (fnALFs), we used three different approaches according to required maximum degree: (i) the standard forward column method (up to maximum degree 1800, in some cases up to degree 2190); (ii) the modified forward column method combined with Horner's scheme (up to maximum degree 2700); (iii) the extended-range arithmetic (up to an arbitrary maximum degree). For the maximum degree 2190, the SHS with fnALFs evaluated using the extended-range arithmetic approach takes only approximately 2-3 times longer than its standard arithmetic counterpart, i.e. the standard forward column method. In the GrafLab, the functionals of the geopotential can be evaluated on a regular grid or point-wise, while the input coordinates can either be read from a data file or entered manually. For the computation on a regular grid we decided to apply the lumped coefficients approach due to significant time-efficiency of this method. Furthermore, if a full variance-covariance matrix of spherical harmonic coefficients is available, it is possible to compute the commission errors of the functionals. When computing on a regular grid, the output functionals or their commission errors may be depicted on a map using automatically selected cartographic projection.

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State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80-90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined 'true' state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.

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The estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes above the open ocean plays an important role for the determination of the global carbon cycle. A frequently used method therefore is the eddy-covariance technique, which is based on the theory of the Prandl-layer with height-constant fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer. To test the assumption of the constant flux layer, in 2008 measurements of turbulent heat and CO2 fluxes were started within the project Surface Ocean Processes in the Anthropocene (SOPRAN) at the research platform FINO2. The FINO2 platform is situated in the South-west of the Baltic Sea, in the tri-border region between Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. In the frame of the Research project SOPRAN, the platform was equipped with additional sensors in June 2008. A combination of 3-component sonic anemometers (USA-1) and open-path infrared gas analyzers for absolute humidity (H2O) and CO2 (LICOR 7500) were installed at a 9m long boom directed southward of the platform in two heights, at 6.8 and 13.8m above sea surface. Additionally slow temperature and humidity sensors were installed at each height. The gas analyzer systems were calibrated before the installation and worked permanently without any calibration during the first measurement period of one and a half years. The comparison with the measurements of the slow sensors showed for both instruments no significant long-term drift in H2O and CO2. Drifts on smaller time scales (in the order of days) due to the contamination with sea salt, were cleaned naturally by rain. The drift of both quantities had no influence on the fluctuation, which, in contrast to the mean values, are important for the flux estimation. All data were filtered due to spikes, rain, and the influence of the mast. The data set includes the measurements of all sensors as average over 30 minutes each for one and a half years, June 2008 to December 2009, and 10 month from November 2011 to August 2012. Additionally derived quantities for 30 minutes intervals each, like the variances for the fast-sensor variables, as well as the momentum, sensible and latent heat, and CO2 flux are presented.