7 resultados para Costs-consequences analysis
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Several studies indicate that the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) off the Pacific coast of Japan has induced slip to the trench and triggered landslides in the Japan Trench. In order to better understand these processes, detailed mapping and shallow-coring landslides at the trench as well as Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) deep drilling to recover the plate boundary décollement (Japan Trench Fast Earthquake Drilling Project, JFAST) have been conducted. In this study we report sediment core data from the rapid response R/V SONNE cruise (SO219A) to the Japan Trench, evidencing a Mass Transport Deposit (MTD) in the uppermost section later drilled at this JFAST-site during IODP Expedition 343. A 8.7 m long gravity core (GeoB16423-1) recovered from ~7,000 m water depth reveals a 8 m sequence of semi-consolidated mud clast breccias embedded in a distorted chaotic sediment matrix. The MTD is covered by a thin veneer of 50 cm hemipelagic, bioturbated diatomaceous mud. This stratigraphic boundary can be clearly distinguished by using physical properties data from Multi Sensor Core Logging and from fall-cone penetrometer shear strength measurements. The geochemical analysis of the pore-water shows undisturbed linear profiles measured from the seafloor downcore across the stratigraphic contact between overlying younger background-sediment and MTD below. This indicates that the investigated section has not been affected by a recent sediment destabilization in the course of the giant Tohoku-Oki earthquake event. Instead, we report an older landslide which occurred between 700 and 10,000 years ago, implying that submarine mass movements are dominant processes along the Japan Trench. However, they occur on local sites and not during each megathrust earthquake.
Resumo:
Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).
Resumo:
Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA), resulting from increasing dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) in surface waters, is likely to affect many marine organisms, particularly those that calcify. Recent OA studies have demonstrated negative and/or differential effects of reduced pH on growth, development, calcification and physiology, but most of these have focused on taxa other than calcareous benthic macroalgae. Here we investigate the potential effects of OA on one of the most common coral reef macroalgal genera,Halimeda. Species of Halimeda produce a large proportion of the sand in the tropics and are a major contributor to framework development on reefs because of their rapid calcium carbonate production and high turnover rates. On Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific, we conducted a manipulative bubbling experiment to investigate the potential effects of OA on growth, calcification and photophysiology of 2 species of Halimeda. Our results suggest that Halimeda is highly susceptible to reduced pH and aragonite saturation state but the magnitude of these effects is species specific. H. opuntiasuffered net dissolution and 15% reduction in photosynthetic capacity, while H. taenicola did not calcify but did not alter photophysiology in experimental treatments. The disparate responses of these species to elevated CO2 partial -pressure (pCO2) may be due to anatomical and physiological differences and could represent a shift in their relative dominance in the face of OA. The ability for a species to exert biological control over calcification and the species specific role of the carbonate skeleton may have important implications for the potential effects of OA on ecological function in the future.
Resumo:
The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.
Resumo:
Past episodes of greenhouse warming provide insight into the coupling of climate and the carbon cycle and thus may help to predict the consequences of unabated carbon emissions in the future.
Resumo:
The area west of the Antarctic Peninsula is a key region for studying and understanding the history of glaciation in the southern high latitudes during the Neogene with respect to variations of the western Antarctic continental ice sheet, variable sea-ice cover, induced eustatic sea level change, as well as consequences for the global climatic system (Barker, Camerlenghi, Acton, et al., 1999). Sites 1095, 1096, and 1101 were drilled on sediment drifts forming the continental rise to examine the nature and composition of sediments deposited under the influence of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet, which has repeatedly advanced to the shelf edge and subsequently released glacially eroded material on the continental shelf and slope (Barker et al., 1999). Mass gravity processes on the slope are responsible for downslope sediment transport by turbidity currents within a channel system between the drifts. Furthermore, bottom currents redistribute the sediments, which leads to final build up of drift bodies (Rebesco et al., 1998). The high-resolution sedimentary sequences on the continental rise can be used to document the variability of continental glaciation and, therefore, allow us to assess the main factors that control the sediment transport and the depositional processes during glaciation periods and their relationship to glacio-eustatic sea level changes. Site 1095 lies in 3840 m of water in a distal position on the northwestern lower flank of Drift 7, whereas Site 1096 lies in 3152 m of water in a more proximal position within Drift 7. Site 1101 is located at 3509 m water depth on the northwestern flank of Drift 4. All three sites have high sedimentation rates. The oldest sediments were recovered at Site 1095 (late Miocene; 9.7 Ma), whereas sediments of Pliocene age were recovered at Site 1096 (4.7 Ma) and at Site 1101 (3.5 Ma). The purpose of this work is to provide a data set of bulk sediment parameters such as CaCO3, total organic carbon (TOC), and coarse-fraction mass percentage (>63 µm) measured on the sediments collected from the continental rise of the western Antarctic Peninsula (Holes 1095A, 1095B, 1096A, 1096B, 1096C, and 1101A). This information can be used to understand the complex depositional processes and their implication for variations in the climatic system of the western Pacific Antarctic margin since 9.7 Ma (late Miocene). Coarse-fraction particles (125-500 µm) from the late Pliocene and Pleistocene (4.0 Ma to recent) sediments recovered from Hole 1095A were microscopically analyzed to gather more detailed information about their variability and composition through time. These data can yield information about changes in potential source regions of the glacially eroded material that has been transported during repeated periods of ice-sheet movements on the shelf.