Figures and related data of a review of the "Global and Russian energy outlook up to 2040"

The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector. Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia's economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.

The nitrogen costs of photosynthesis in a diatom under current and future pCO2

With each cellular generation, oxygenic photoautotrophs must accumulate abundant protein complexes that mediate light capture, photosynthetic electron transport and carbon fixation. In addition to this net synthesis, oxygenic photoautotrophs must counter the light-dependent photoinactivation of Photosystem II (PSII), using metabolically expensive proteolysis, disassembly, resynthesis and re-assembly of protein subunits. We used growth rates, elemental analyses and protein quantitations to estimate the nitrogen (N) metabolism costs to both accumulate the photosynthetic system and to maintain PSII function in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, growing at two pCO2 levels across a range of light levels. The photosynthetic system contains c. 15-25% of total cellular N. Under low growth light, N (re)cycling through PSII repair is only c. 1% of the cellular N assimilation rate. As growth light increases to inhibitory levels, N metabolite cycling through PSII repair increases to c. 14% of the cellular N assimilation rate. Cells growing under the assumed future 750 ppmv pCO2 show higher growth rates under optimal light, coinciding with a lowered N metabolic cost to maintain photosynthesis, but then suffer greater photoinhibition of growth under excess light, coincident with rising costs to maintain photosynthesis. We predict this quantitative trait response to light will vary across taxa.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Microalgal CO2 Sequestering - Modeling Microalgae Production Costs

Microalgae CO2 sequestering facilities might become an industrial reality if microalgae biomass could be produced at cost below $500.00 t-1. We develop a model for estimation of total production costs of microalgae as a function of known production-specific expenses, and incorporate into the model the effects of uncontrollable factors which affect known production-specific expenses. Random fluctuations were intentionally incorporated into the model, consequently into generated cost/technology scenarios, because each and every logically interconnected equipment/operation that is used in design/construction/operation/maintenance of a production process is inevitably subject to random cost/price fluctuations which can neither be eliminated nor a priori controlled. A total of 152 costs/technology scenarios were evaluated to find forty four scenarios in which Predicted Total Production Costs of Microalgae (PTPCM) was in the range $200 to $500 t-1 ha-1 y-1. An additional 24 scenarios were found with PTCPM in the range of $102 to $200 t-1 ha-1 y-1. These findings suggest that microalgae CO2 sequestering and the production of commercial compounds from microalgal biomass can be economically viable venture even today when microalgae production technology is still far from its optimum.

Metabolic costs of larval settlement and metamorphosis in the coral Seriatopora caliendrum under ambient and elevated pCO2

We tested the effects of pCO2 on Seriatopora caliendrum recruits over the first 5.3 d of post-settlement existence. In March 2011, 11-20 larvae were settled in glass vials (3.2 mL) and incubated at 24.0 °C and ~250 µmol quanta/m**2/s while supplied with seawater (at 1.4 mL/s) equilibrated with 51.6 Pa pCO2 (ambient) or 86.4 Pa pCO2. At 51.6 Pa pCO2, mean respiration 7 h post-settlement was 0.056 ± 0.007 nmol O2/recruit/min, but rose quickly to 0.095 ± 0.007 nmol O2/recruit/min at 3.3 d post-settlement, and thereafter declined to 0.075 ± 0.002 nmol O2/recruit/min at 5.3 d post-settlement (all ± SE). Elevated pCO2 depressed respiration of recruits by 19% after 3.3 d and 12% overall (i.e., integrated over 5.3 d), and while it had no effect on corallite area, elevated pCO2 was associated with weaker adhesion to the glass settlement surface and lower protein biomass. The unique costs of settlement and metamorphosis for S. caliendrum over 5.3 d are estimated to be 257 mJ/recruit at 51.6 Pa pCO2, which is less than the energy content of the larvae and recruits.