66 resultados para Continuous-time Markov Process

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Remote sensing instruments are key players to map land surface temperature (LST) at large temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we present how we combine passive microwave and thermal infrared data to estimate LST during summer snow-free periods over northern high latitudes. The methodology is based on the SSM/I-SSMIS 37 GHz measurements at both vertical and horizontal polarizations on a 25 km × 25 km grid size. LST is retrieved from brightness temperatures introducing an empirical linear relationship between emissivities at both polarizations as described in Royer and Poirier (2010). This relationship is calibrated at pixel scale, using cloud-free independent LST data from MODIS instruments. The SSM/I-SSMIS and MODIS data are synchronized by fitting a diurnal cycle model built on skin temperature reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting temperature dataset is provided at 25 km scale and at an hourly time step during the ten-year analysis period (2000-2011). This new product was locally evaluated at five experimental sites of the EU-PAGE21 project against air temperature measurements and meteorological model reanalysis, and compared to the MODIS LST product at both local and circumpolar scale. The results giving a mean RMSE of the order of 2.2 K demonstrate the usefulness of the microwave product, which is unaffected by clouds as opposed to thermal infrared products and offers a better resolution compared to model reanalysis.

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This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

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Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

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Five sections drilled in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge (SE Atlantic) during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 208 resulted in the first complete early Paleogene deep-sea record. Here we present high-resolution stratigraphic records spanning a ~4.3 million yearlong interval of the late Paleocene to early Eocene. This interval includes the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as well as the Eocene thermal maximum (ETM) 2 event. A detailed chronology was developed with nondestructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records and shipboard color data. These records were used to refine the shipboard-derived spliced composite depth for each site and with a record from ODP Site 1051 were then used to establish a continuous time series over this interval. Extensive spectral analysis reveals that the early Paleogene sedimentary cyclicity is dominated by precession modulated by the short (100 kyr) and long (405 kyr) eccentricity cycles. Counting of precession-related cycles at multiple sites results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C24r and C25n. Direct comparison between the amplitude modulation of the precession component derived from XRF data and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity suggests that the onset of the PETM and ETM2 are related to a 100-kyr eccentricity maximum. Both events are approximately a quarter of a period offset from a maximum in the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle, with the major difference that the PETM is lagging and ETM2 is leading a 405-kyr eccentricity maximum. Absolute age estimates for the PETM, ETM2, and the magnetochron boundaries that are consistent with recalibrated radiometric ages and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity cannot be precisely determined at present because of too large uncertainties in these methods. Nevertheless, we provide two possible tuning options, which demonstrate the potential for the development of a cyclostratigraphic framework based on the stable 405-kyr eccentricity cycle for the entire Paleogene.

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The studies described here base mainly on sedimentary material collected during the "Indian Ocean Expedition" of the German research vessel "Meteor" in the region of the Indian-Pakistan continental margin in February and March 1965. Moreover,samples from the mouth of the Indus-River were available, which were collected by the Pakistan fishing vessel "Machhera" in March 1965. Altogether, the following quantities of sedimentary material were collected: 59.73 m piston cores. 54.52 m gravity cores. 33 box grab samples. 68 bottom grab samples Component analyses of the coarse fraction were made of these samples and the sedimentary fabric was examined. Moreover, the CaCO3 and Corg contents were discussed. From these investigations the following history of sedimentation can be derived: Recent sedimentation on the shelf is mainly characterized by hydrodynamic processes and terrigenous supply of material. In the shallow water wave action and currents running parallel to the coast, imply a repeated reworking which induces a sorting of the grains and layering of the sediments as well as a lack of bioturbation. The sedimentation rate is very high here. From the coast-line down to appr. 50 m the sediment becomes progressively finer, the conditions of deposition become less turbulent. On the outer shelf the sediment is again considerably coarser. It contains many relicts of planktonic organisms and it shows traces of burrowing. Indications for redeposition are nearly missing, a considerable part of the fine fraction of the sediments is, however, whirled up and carried away. In wide areas of the outer shelf this stirring has gained such a degree that recent deposits are nearly completely missing. Here, coarse relict sands rich in ooids are exposed, which were formed in very shallow stirred water during the time when the sea reached its lowest level, i.e. at the turn of the Pleistocene to the Holocene. Below the relict sand white, very fine-grained aragonite mud was found at one location (core 228). This aragonite mud was obviously deposited in very calm water of some greater depth, possibly behind a reef barrier. Biochemic carbonate precipitation played an important part in the formation of relict sands and aragonite muds. In postglacial times the relict sands were exposed for long periods to violent wave action and to areal erosion. In the present days they are gradually covered by recent sediments proceeding from the sides. On the continental margin beyond the shelf edge the distribution of the sediments is to a considerable extent determined by the morphology of the sea bottom. The material originating from the continent and/or the shelf, is less transported by action of the water than by the force of gravity. Within the range of the uppermost part of the continental slope recent sedimentation reaches its maximum. Here the fine material is deposited which has been whirled up in the zone of the relict sands. A laminated fine-grained sediment is formed here due to the very high sedimentation rate as well as to the extremely low O2-content in the bottom water, which prevents life on the bottom of the sea and impedes thus also bioturbation. The lamination probaly reflects annual variation in deposition and can be attributed to the rhythm of the monsoon with its effects on the water and the weather conditions. In the lower part of the upper continental slope sediments are to be found which show in varying intensity, intercalations of fine material (silt) from the shelf, in large sections of the core. These fine intercalations of allochthonous material are closely related to the autochthonous normal sediment, so that a great number of small individual depositional processes can be inferred. In general the intercalations are missing in the uppermost part of the cores; in the lower part they can be met in different quantities, and they reach their maximum frequency in the upper part of the lower core section. The depositions described here were designated as turbid layer sediments, since they get their material from turbid layers, which transport components to the continental slope which have been whirled up from the shelf. Turbidites are missing in this zone. Since the whole upper continental slope shows a low oxygen-content of the bottom water the structure of the turbid layer sediments is more or less preserved. The lenticular-phacoidal fine structure does, however, not reflect annual rhythms, but sporadic individual events, as e.g. tsunamis. At the lower part of the continental slope and on the continental rise the majority of turbidites was deposited, which, during glacial times and particularly at the beginning of the post-glacial period, transported material from the zone of relict sands. The Laccadive Ridge represented a natural obstacle for the transport of suspended sediments into the deep sea. Core SIC-181 from the Arabian Basin shows some intercalations of turbidites; their material, however, does not originate from the Indian Shelf, but from the Laccadive Ridge. Within the range of the Indus Cone it is surprising that distinct turbidites are nearly completely missing; on the other hand, turbid layer sediments are to be found. The bottom of the sea is showing still a slight slope here, so that the turbidites funneled through the Canyon of the Swatch probably rush down to greater water depths. Due to the particularly large supply of suspended material by theIndus River the turbid layer sediments show farther extension than in other regions. In general the terrigenous components are concentrated on the Indus Cone. It is within the range of the lower continental slope that the only discovery of a sliding mass (core 186) has been located. It can be assumed that this was set in motion during the Holocene. During the period of time discussed here the following development of kind and intensity of the deposition of allochthonous material can be observed on the Indian-Pakistan continental margin: At the time of the lowest sea level the shelf was only very narrow, and the zone in which bottom currents were able to stir up material by oscillating motion, was considerably confined. The rivers flowed into the sea near to the edge of the shelf. For this reason the percentage of terrigenous material, quartz and mica is higher in the lower part of many cores (e.g. cores 210 and 219) than in the upper part. The transition from glacial to postglacial times caused a series of environmental changes. Among them the rise of the sea level (in the area of investigation appr. 150 m) had the most important influence on the sedimentation process. In connection with this event many river valleys became canyons, which sucked sedimentary material away from the shelf and transported it in form of turbidites into the deep sea. During the rise of the sea level a situation can be expected with a maximum area of the comparatively plane shelf being exposed to wave action. During this time the process of stirring up of sediments and formation of turbid layers will reach a maximum. Accordingly, the formation of turbidites and turbid layer sediments are most frequent at the same time. This happened in general in the older polstglacial period. The present day high water level results in a reduced supply of sediments into the canyons. The stirring up of sediments from the shelf by wave action is restricted to the finest material. The missing of shelf material in the uppermost core sections can thus be explained. The laminated muds reflect these calm sedimentation conditions as well. In the southwestern part of the area of investigation fine volcanic glass was blown in during the Pleistocene, probably from the southeast. It has thus become possible to correlate the cores 181, 182, 202. Eolian dust from the Indian subcontinent represents probably an important component of the deep sea sediments. The chemism of the bottom as well as of the pore water has a considerable influence on the development of the sediments. Of particular importance in this connection is a layer with a minimum content of oxygen in the sea water (200-1500 m), which today touches the upper part of the continental slope. Above and beyond this oxygen minimum layer somewhat higher O2-values are to be observed at the sea bottom. During the Pleistocene the oxygen minimum layer has obviously been locatedin greater depth as is indicated by the facies of laminated mud occuring in the lower part of core 219. The type of bioturbation is mainly determined by the chemism. Moreover, the chemism is responsible for a considerable selective dissolution, either complete or partial, of the sedimentary components. Within the range of the oxygen minimum layer an alkaline milieu is developed at the bottom. This causes a complete or partial dissolution of the siliceous organisms. Here, bioturbation is in general completely missing; sometimes small pyrite-filled burrowing racks are found. In the areas rich in O2 high pH-values result in a partial dissolution of the calcareous shells. Large, non-pyritized burrowing tracks characterize the type of bioturbation in this environment. A study of the "lebensspuren" in the cores supports the assumption that, particularly within the region of the Laccadive Basin, the oxygen content in the bottom sediments was lower than during the Holocene. This may be attributed to a high sedimentation rate and to a lower O2-content of the bottom water. The composition of the allochthonous sedimentary components, detritus and/or volcanic glass may locally change the chemism to a considerable extent for a certain time; under such special circumstances the type of bioturbation and the state of preservation of the components may be different from those of the normal sediment.

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Ocean acidification and warming are expected to threaten the persistence of tropical coral reef ecosystems. As coral reefs face multiple stressors, the distribution and abundance of corals will depend on the successful dispersal and settlement of coral larvae under changing environmental conditions. To explore this scenario, we used metabolic rate, at holobiont and molecular levels, as an index for assessing the physiological plasticity of Pocillopora damicornis larvae from this site to conditions of ocean acidity and warming. Larvae were incubated for 6 hours in seawater containing combinations of CO2 concentration (450 and 950 µatm) and temperature (28 and 30°C). Rates of larval oxygen consumption were higher at elevated temperatures. In contrast, high CO2 levels elicited depressed metabolic rates, especially for larvae released later in the spawning period. Rates of citrate synthase, a rate-limiting enzyme in aerobic metabolism, suggested a biochemical limit for increasing oxidative capacity in coral larvae in a warming, acidifying ocean. Biological responses were also compared between larvae released from adult colonies on the same day (cohorts). The metabolic physiology of Pocillopora damicornis larvae varied significantly by day of release. Additionally, we used environmental data collected on a reef in Moorea, French Polynesia to provide information about what adult corals and larvae may currently experience in the field. An autonomous pH sensor provided a continuous time series of pH on the natal fringing reef. In February/March, 2011, pH values averaged 8.075±0.023. Our results suggest that without adaptation or acclimatization, only a portion of naïve Pocillopora damicornis larvae may have suitable metabolic phenotypes for maintaining function and fitness in an end-of-the century ocean.

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A continuous time series of annual soil thaw records, extending from 1994 to 2009, is available for comparison with the records of thaw obtained from the Biocomplexity Experiment (BE) for the period 2006-2009. Discontinuous records of thaw at Barrow from wet tundra sites date back to the 1960s. Comparisons between the longer records with the BE observations reveal strong similarities. Records of permafrost temperature, reflecting changes in the annual surface energy exchange, are available from the 1950s for comparison with results from measurement programs begun in 2002. The long-term systematic geocryological investigations at Barrow indicate an increase in permafrost temperature, especially during the last several years. The increase in near-surface permafrost temperature is most pronounced in winter. Marked trends are not apparent in the active-layer record, although subsidence measurements on the North Slope indicate that penetration into the ice-rich layer at the top of permafrost has occurred over the past decade. Active-layer thickness values from the 1960s are generally higher than those from the 1990s, and are very similar to those of the 2000s. Analysis of spatial active-layer observations at representative locations demonstrates significant variations in active-layer thickness between different landscape types, reflecting the influence of vegetation, substrate, microtopography, and, especially, soil moisture. Landscape-specific differences exist in the response of active-layer thickness to climatic forcing. These differences are attributable to the existence of localized controls related to combinations of surface and subsurface characteristics. The geocryological records at Barrow illustrate the importance and effectiveness of sustained, well organized monitoring efforts to document long-term trends.

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The environment of ebb-tidal deltas between barrier island systems is characterized by a complex morphology with ebb- and flood-dominated channels, shoals and swash bars connecting the ebb-tidal delta platform to the adjacent island. These morphological features reveal characteristic surface sediment grain-size distributions and are subject to a continuous adaptation to the prevailing hydrodynamic forces. The mixed-energy tidal inlet Otzumer Balje between the East Frisian barrier islands of Langeoog and Spiekeroog in the southern North Sea has been chosen here as a model study area for the identification of relevant hydrodynamic drivers of morphology and sedimentology. We compare the effect of high-energy, wave-dominated storm conditions to mid-term, tide-dominated fair-weather conditions on tidal inlet morphology and sedimentology with a process-based numerical model. A multi-fractional approach with five grain-size fractions between 150 and 450 µm allows for the simulation of corresponding surface sediment grain-size distributions. Net sediment fluxes for distinct conditions are identified: during storm conditions, bed load sediment transport is generally onshore directed on the shallower ebb-tidal delta shoals, whereas fine-grained suspended sediment bypasses the tidal inlet by wave-driven currents. During fair weather the sediment transport mainly focuses on the inlet throat and the marginal flood channels. We show how the observed sediment grain-size distribution and the morphological response at mixed-energy tidal inlets are the result of both wave-dominated less frequent storm conditions and mid-term, tide-dominant fair-weather conditions.