3 resultados para Confidence Density

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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An aerial survey was conducted to estimate the abundance of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) on their wintering ground in West Greenland in March-April 2006 and 2008. The survey was conducted as a double platform aerial line transect survey, and sampled approximately 17% of the total survey area of ca. 125 000 km**2. The abundance of belugas was 10 595 (95% confidence interval 4904-24 650). The largest abundance was found at the northern part of Store Hellefiske Bank, at the eastern edge of the Baffin Bay pack ice, a pattern similar to that found in eight systematic surveys conducted since 1981. A clear relationship between decreasing sea-ice cover and increasing offshore distance of beluga sightings was established from all previous surveys, suggesting that belugas expand their distribution westward as new areas on the banks of West Greenland open up earlier in spring with reduced sea-ice coverage or early annual ice recession. This is in contrast to the relatively confined distribution of belugas near the coast in limited open areas in the early 1980s, when sea-ice cover was greater. However, the effects of the changes in coastal availability of belugas can also be observed with the correlation between catches from the local Inuit hunt and sea-ice cover, where the catches increased significantly with increasing sea-ice coverage during the period 1954-2006. These results, based on nearly 30 years of dedicated survey effort, are among the first available evidence showing a shift in distribution of an Arctic cetacean in response to changes in sea-ice coverage.

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Paleotemperature estimates based on coral Sr/Ca have not been widely accepted because the reconstructed glacial-Holocene shift in tropical sea-surface temperature (~4-6°C) is larger than that indicated by foraminiferal Mg/Ca (~2-4°C). We show that corals over-estimate changes in sea-surface temperature (SST) because their records are attenuated during skeletogenesis within the living tissue layer. To quantify this process, we microprofiled skeletal mass accumulation within the tissue layer of Porites from Australasian coral reefs and laboratory culturing experiments. The results show that the sensitivity of the Sr/Ca and d18O thermometers in Porites will be suppressed, variable, and dependent on the relationship between skeletal growth rate and mass accumulation within the tissue layer. Our findings help explain why d18O-SST sensitivities for Porites range from -0.08 per mil/°C to -0.22 per mil/°C and are always less than the value of -0.23 per mil/°C established for biogenic aragonite. Based on this observation, we recalibrated the coral Sr/Ca thermometer to determine a revised sensitivity of -0.084 mmol/mol/°C. After rescaling, most of the published Sr/Ca-SST estimates for the Indo-Pacific region for the last ~14,000 years (-7°C to +2°C relative to modern) fall within the 95% confidence envelope of the foraminiferal Mg/Ca-SST records. We conclude that two types of calibration scales are required for coral paleothermometry; an attenuated Porites-specific thermometer sensitivity for studies of seasonal to interannual change in SST and, importantly, the rescaled -0.084 mmol/mol/°C Sr/Ca sensitivity for studies of 20th-century trends and millennial-scale changes in mean SST. The calibration-scaling concept will apply to the development of transfer functions for all geochemical tracers in corals.

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Peat and net carbon accumulation rates in two sub-arctic peat plateaus of west-central Canada have been studied through geochemical analyses and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating. The peatland sites started to develop around 6600-5900 cal. yr BP and the peat plateau stages are characterized by Sphagnum fuscum peat alternating with rootlet layers. The long-term peat and net carbon accumulation rates for both profiles are 0.30-0.31 mm/yr and 12.5-12.7 gC/m**2/yr, respectively. These values reflect very slow peat accumulation (0.04-0.09 mm/yr) and net carbon accumulation (3.7-5.2 gC/m**2/yr) in the top rootlet layers. Extensive AMS radiocarbon dating of one profile shows that accumulation rates are variable depending on peat plateau stage. Peat accumulation rates are up to six times higher and net carbon accumulation rates up to four times higher in S. fuscum than in rootlet stages. Local fires represented by charcoal remains in some of the rootlet layers result in very low accumulation rates. High C/N ratios throughout most of the peat profiles suggest low degrees of decomposition due to stable permafrost conditions. Hence, original peat accretion has remained largely unaltered, except in the initial stages of peatland development when permafrost was not yet present.