6 resultados para Complex systems prediction
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The micro-scale spatial distribution patterns of a demersal fish and decapod crustacean assemblage were assessed in a hard-bottom kelp environment in the southern North Sea. Using quadrats along line transects, we assessed the in situ fish and crustacean abundance in relation to substratum types (rock, cobbles and large pebbles) and the density of algae. Six fish and four crustacean species were abundant, with Ctenolabrus rupestris clearly dominating the fish community and Galathea squamifera dominating the crustacean community. Differences in the substratum types had an even stronger effect on the micro-scale distribution than the density of the dominating algae species. Kelp had a negative effect on the fish abundances, with significantly lower average densities in kelp beds compared with adjacent open areas. Averaged over all of the substrata, the most attractive substratum for the fish was large pebbles. In contrast, crustaceans did not show a specific substratum affinity. The results clearly indicate that, similar to other complex systems, significant micro-scale species-habitat associations occur in northern hard-bottom environments. However, because of the frequently harsh environmental conditions, these habitats are mainly sampled from ships with sampling gear, and the resulting data cannot be used to resolve small-scale species-habitat associations. A detailed substratum classification and community assessment, often only possible using SCUBA diving, is therefore important to reach a better understanding of the functional relationships between species and their environment in northern temperate waters, knowledge that is very important with respect to the increasing environmental pressure caused by global climate change.
Resumo:
As the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises, more CO2 will dissolve in the oceans, leading to a reduction in pH. Effects of ocean acidification on bacterial communities have mainly been studied in biologically complex systems, in which indirect effects, mediated through food web interactions, come into play. These approaches come close to nature but suffer from low replication and neglect seasonality. To comprehensively investigate direct pH effects, we conducted highly-replicated laboratory acidification experiments with the natural bacterial community from Helgoland Roads (North Sea). Seasonal variability was accounted for by repeating the experiment four times (spring, summer, autumn, winter). Three dilution approaches were used to select for different ecological strategies, i.e. fast-growing or low-nutrient adapted bacteria. The pH levels investigated were in situ seawater pH (8.15-8.22), pH 7.82 and pH 7.67, representing the present-day situation and two acidification scenarios projected for the North Sea for the year 2100. In all seasons, both automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis and 16S ribosomal amplicon pyrosequencing revealed pH-dependent community shifts for two of the dilution approaches. Bacteria susceptible to changes in pH were different members of Gammaproteobacteria, Flavobacteriaceae, Rhodobacteraceae, Campylobacteraceae and further less abundant groups. Their specific response to reduced pH was often context-dependent. Bacterial abundance was not influenced by pH. Our findings suggest that already moderate changes in pH have the potential to cause compositional shifts, depending on the community assembly and environmental factors. By identifying pH-susceptible groups, this study provides insights for more directed, in-depth community analyses in large-scale and long-term experiments.
Resumo:
The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) data set contains monthly discharge measurements for 1018 stations located throughout the world. The period of record varies widely from station to station, with a mean of 21.5 years. These data were digitized from published UNESCO archives by Charles Voromarty, Balaze Fekete, and B.A. Tucker of the Complex Systems Research Center (CSRC) at the University of New Hampshire. River discharge is typically measured through the use of a rating curve that relates local water level height to discharge. This rating curve is used to estimate discharge from the observed water level. The rating curves are periodically rechecked and recalibrated through on-site measurement of discharge and river stage.
Resumo:
Two main mechanisms are controlling the accumulation of organic matter in the sediments of the Kara Sea. The large rivers Ob and Yenisei supply significant quantities of freshwater onto the shelf (Lisitsyn and Vinogradov, 1995; Bobrovitskaya et al., 1996; Johnson et al., 1997) and deliver terrigenous organie matter and aquatic algae. Additionally, marine organic matter is produced in the water column. In order to distinguish between the different sources of the organic material maceral analysis, organic-geochemical bulk Parameters and biomarkers (short- and long-chain D-alkanes, fatty acids and pigments) were used to determine the quality (marine vs. terrigenous) and quantity of the organic carbon fraction in the surface sediments taken during the 28th cruise of RV Akademik Boris Petrov (Matthiessen and Stepanets, 1998) (Fig. 1). Previous organic-geochemical investigations (i.e., total organic-carbon content (TOC), hydrogen indices (Hl), CIN-ratios) indicate the importance of terrigenous input of organic matter (Galimov et al., 1996; Stein, 1996). Studies of lipid biomarkers in surface sediments in the Ob estuary show also a predominance of terrestrial constituents and an increase in planktonogenic and bacterial lipids further offshore (Belyaeva and Eglinton, 1997). In complex systems such as the Eurasian continental margin characterized by high input of terrestriallaquatic organic matter and strong seasonal variation in sea-ice Cover and primary productivity, the Interpretation of the organic geochemical data is much more complicated and restricted in comparison to similar data Sets from low-latitude open-ocean environments (Fahl and Stein, 1998). Microscopical studies (maceral analysisl palynology), however, allow a direct visual inspection of the particulate organic matter and allow to differentiate particles of different biological sources. Thus, a combination of both methods as shown in this study, yields a more precise identification of organic-carbon sources.
Resumo:
Dissolution of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) or gases into groundwater is a key process, both for contamination problems originating from organic liquid sources, and for dissolution trapping in geological storage of CO2. Dissolution in natural systems typically will involve both high and low NAPL saturations and a wide range of pore water flow velocities within the same source zone for dissolution to groundwater. To correctly predict dissolution in such complex systems and as the NAPL saturations change over time, models must be capable of predicting dissolution under a range of saturations and flow conditions. To provide data to test and validate such models, an experiment was conducted in a two-dimensional sand tank, where the dissolution of a spatially variable, 5x5 cm**2 DNAPL tetrachloroethene source was carefully measured using x-ray attenuation techniques at a resolution of 0.2x0.2 cm**2. By continuously measuring the NAPL saturations, the temporal evolution of DNAPL mass loss by dissolution to groundwater could be measured at each pixel. Next, a general dissolution and solute transport code was written and several published rate-limited (RL) dissolution models and a local equilibrium (LE) approach were tested against the experimental data. It was found that none of the models could adequately predict the observed dissolution pattern, particularly in the zones of higher NAPL saturation. Combining these models with a model for NAPL pool dissolution produced qualitatively better agreement with experimental data, but the total matching error was not significantly improved. A sensitivity study of commonly used fitting parameters further showed that several combinations of these parameters could produce equally good fits to the experimental observations. The results indicate that common empirical model formulations for RL dissolution may be inadequate in complex, variable saturation NAPL source zones, and that further model developments and testing is desirable.
Resumo:
The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.