Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Age models, color measurements, and calculated sea surface temperatures of sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk

Past changes in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions are proposed to play a crucial role in deglacial climate development and ocean circulation but are less well known than from the North Atlantic. Here, we present new alkenone-based sea surface temperature records from the subarctic northwest Pacific and its marginal seas (Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk) for the time interval of the last 15 kyr, indicating millennial-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations similar to short-term deglacial climate oscillations known from Greenland ice-core records. Past changes in sea-ice distribution are derived from relative percentage of specific diatom groups and qualitative assessment of the IP25 biomarker related to sea-ice diatoms. The deglacial variability in sea-ice extent matches the sea surface temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations suggest a linkage to deglacial variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a close atmospheric coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. During the Holocene the subarctic North Pacific is marked by complex sea surface temperature trends, which do not support the hypothesis of a Holocene seesaw in temperature development between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Age models of ODP Leg 175 holes

A multiproxy approach including the use of stable isotopes, magnetic characterization analyses, and organic geochemistry has been adopted to consider factors such as productivity and terrigenous input over the past 1.5 m.y. at two areas off the western coast of Africa. These factors can, in turn, be used to consider variability in ocean circulation and upwelling in addition to changes in climate on the African continent. In particular, studies focused on the influence of glacial-interglacial cycles and evidence for the mid-Pleistocene revolution (MPR), a complex change in climate that occurred at ~1 Ma. A comparison of the records from the two areas drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, the Congo Basin, at a latitude of 5°S (Holes 1076A and 1077A), and the Walvis Ridge, at 17°S (Hole 1081A), demonstrates that these sites are affected by different localized factors. The sites in the Congo Basin are strongly influenced by freshwater and sediment from the Congo River, whereas the site at the Walvis Ridge is located in the center of oceanic upwelling and contains a more marine signal. Evidence also suggests that the two sites responded differently to both long- and short-term climatic variations. In particular, the response at the Walvis Ridge to the MPR occurred over an extended period, from 1.1 to 0.8 Ma, and was associated with a change in the dominant source of terrigenous input to the site in conjunction with a change in the productivity signal. In the Congo Basin, the response to the MPR was more rapid, occurring between 0.9 and 0.8 Ma. During this period, the influence of the Congo River became significant. However, productivity records only began to respond toward the end of this interval, at 0.8 Ma.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Sampling information, length measurements, DNA alignments, models and phylogenetics trees for Oithona similis s.l.

Traditionally, many small-sized copepod species are considered to be widespread, bipolar or cosmopolitan. However, these large-scale distribution patterns need to be re-examined in view of increasing evidence of cryptic and pseudo-cryptic speciation in pelagic copepods. Here, we present a phylogeographic study of Oithona similis s.l. populations from the Arctic Ocean, the Southern Ocean and its northern boundaries, the North Atlantic and the Mediterrranean Sea. O. similis s.l. is considered as one of the most abundant species in temperate to polar oceans and acts as an important link in the trophic network between the microbial loop and higher trophic levels such as fish larvae. Two gene fragments were analysed: the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI), and the nuclear ribosomal 28S genetic marker. Seven distinct, geographically delimitated, mitochondrial lineages could be identified, with divergences among the lineages ranging from 8 to 24 %, thus representing most likely cryptic or pseudocryptic species within O. similis s.l. Four lineages were identified within or close to the borders of the Southern Ocean, one lineage in the Arctic Ocean and two lineages in the temperate Northern hemisphere. Surprisingly the Arctic lineage was more closely related to lineages from the Southern hemisphere than to the other lineages from the Northern hemisphere, suggesting that geographic proximity is a rather poor predictor of how closely related the clades are on a genetic level. Molecular clock application revealed that the evolutionary history of O. similis s.l. is possibly closely associated with the reorganization of the ocean circulation in the mid Miocene and may be an example of allopatric speciation in the pelagic zone.