38 resultados para Coefficient of determination

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The attenuation property of a lateral propagating light (LPL) in sea ice was measured using an artificial lamp in the Canadian Arctic during the 2007/2008 winter. A measurement method is proposed and applied whereby a recording instrument is buried in the sea ice and an artificial lamp is moved across the instrument. The apparent attenuation coefficient µ(lamda) for the lateral propagating light is obtained from the measured logarithmic relative variation rate. With the exception of blue and red lights, the attenuation coefficient changed little with wavelength, but changed considerably with depth. The vertical decrease of the attenuation coefficient was found to be correlated with salinity: the greater the salinity, the greater the attenuation coefficient. A clear linear relation of salinity and the lateral attenuation coefficient with R2 = 0.939 exists to address the close correlation of the attenuation of LPL with the scattering from the brine. The observed attenuation coefficient of LPL is much larger than that of the vertical propagation light, which we speculate to be caused by scattering. Part of this scattered component is transmitted out of the sea ice from the upper and lower surfaces.

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The silicoflagellate and ebridian assemblages in early middle Eocene Arctic cores obtained by IODP Expedition 302 (ACEX) were studied in order to decipher the paleoceanography of the upper water column. The assemblages in Lithologic Unit 2 (49.7-45.1 Ma), one of the biosiliceous intervals, were usually endemic as compared to the assemblages that occurred outside of the Arctic Ocean. The presence of these endemic assemblages is probably due to a unique environmental setting, controlled by the degree of mixing between the low-salinity Arctic waters and relatively high salinity waters supplied from outside the Arctic Ocean, such as the Atlantic and possibly the Western Siberian Sea. Using the basin-to-basin fractionation model, the early middle Eocene Arctic Ocean corresponds to an estuarine circulation type, which includes the modern-day Black Sea. The abundant down-core occurrence of ebridians strongly suggests the past presence of low-salinity waters, and may indicate that low oxygen concentrations prevailed in the euphotic layer, on the basis of the ecology of the modern ebridian Hermesinum adriaticum.

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With the coupled use of multibeam swath bathymetry, high-resolution subbottom profiling and sediment coring from icebreakers in the Arctic Ocean, there is a growing awareness of the prevalence of Quaternary ice-grounding events on many of the topographic highs found in present water depths of <1000 m. In some regions, such as the Lomonosov Ridge and Yermak Plateau, overconsolidated sediments sampled through either drilling or coring are found beneath seismically imaged unconformities of glacigenic origin. However, there exists no comprehensive analysis of the geotechnical properties of these sediments, or how their inferred stress state may be related to different glacigenic processes or types of ice-loading. Here we combine geophysical, stratigraphic and geotechnical measurements from the Lomonosov Ridge and Yermak Plateau and discuss the glacial geological implications of overconsolidated sediments. The degree of overconsolidation, determined from measurements of porosity and shear strength, is shown to result from consolidation and/or deformation below grounded ice and, with the exception of a single region on the Lomonosov Ridge, cannot be explained by erosion of overlying sediments. We demonstrate that the amount and depth of porosity loss associated with a middle Quaternary (~ 790-950 thousand years ago - ka) grounding on the Yermak Plateau is compatible with sediment consolidation under an ice sheet or ice rise. Conversely, geotechnical properties of sediments from beneath late Quaternary ice-groundings in both regions, independently dated to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6, indicate a more transient event commensurate with a passing tabular iceberg calved from an ice shelf.

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In spring, Arctic coastal fast ice is inhabited by high densities of sea ice algae and, among other fauna, juveniles of benthic polychaetes. This paper investigates the hypothesis that growth rates of juveniles of the common sympagic polychaete, Scolelepis squamata (Polychaeta: Spionidae), are significantly faster at sea ice algal bloom concentrations compared to concurrent phytoplankton concentrations. Juvenile S. squamata from fast ice off Barrow, Alaska, were fed with different algal concentrations at 0 and 5 °C, simulating ambient high sea ice algal concentrations, concurrent low phytoplankton concentrations, and an intermediate concentration. Growth rates, calculated using a simple linear regression equation, were significantly higher (up to 115 times) at the highest algal concentration compared to the lowest. At the highest algal concentration, juveniles grew faster at 5 °C compared to those feeding at 0 °C with a Q10 of 2.0. We conclude that highly concentrated sea ice algae can sustain faster growth rates of polychaete juveniles compared to the less dense spring phytoplankton concentrations. The earlier melt of Arctic sea ice predicted with climate change might cause a mismatch between occurrence of polychaete juveniles and food availability in the near future. Our data indicate that this reduction in food availability might counteract any faster growth of a pelagic juvenile stage based on forecasted increased water temperatures.

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Measurements of winter balance (bw) and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that bw was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949-2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925-1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower bw than the average for 1949-2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ± 0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.

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Extinction is a remarkably difficult phenomenon to study under natural conditions. This is because the outcome of stress exposure and associated fitness reduction is not known until the extinction occurs and it remains unclear whether there is any phenotypic reaction of the exposed population that can be used to predict its fate. Here we take advantage of the fossil record, where the ecological outcome of stress exposure is known. Specifically, we analyze shell morphology of planktonic Foraminifera in sediment samples from the Mediterranean, during an interval preceding local extinctions. In two species representing different plankton habitats, we observe shifts in trait state and decrease in variance in association with non-terminal stress, indicating stabilizing selection. At terminal stress levels, immediately before extinction, we observe increased growth asymmetry and trait variance, indicating disruptive selection and bet-hedging. The pre-extinction populations of both species show a combination of trait states and trait variance distinct from all populations exposed to non-terminal levels of stress. This finding indicates that the phenotypic history of a population may allow the detection of threshold levels of stress, likely to lead to extinction. It is thus an alternative to population dynamics in studying and monitoring natural population ecology.