A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

(Table 1) Concentration of organohalogenated compounds in clean and contaminated hair of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland

In this pilot study, we report on levels of persistent organohalogenated contaminants (OHCs) in hair of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland sampled between 1999 and 2001. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the validation of polar bear hair as a non-invasive matrix representative of concentrations and profiles in internal organs and blood plasma. Because of low sample weights (13-140 mg), only major bioaccumulative OHCs were detected above the limit of quantification: five polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners (CB 99, 138, 153, 170 and 180), one polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congener (BDE 47), oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and ß-hexachlorocyclohexane. The PCB profile in hair was similar to that of internal tissues (i.e. adipose, liver, brain and blood), with CB 153 and 180 as the major congeners in all matrices. A gender difference was found for concentrations in hair relative to concentrations in internal tissues. Females (n = 6) were found to display negative correlations, while males (n = 5) showed positive correlations, although p-values were not found significant. These negative correlations in females may reflect seasonal OHC mobilisation from periphery adipose tissue due to, for example, lactation and fasting. The lack of significance in most correlations may be due to small sample sizes and seasonal variability of concentrations in soft tissues. Further research with larger sample weights and sizes is therefore necessary to draw more definitive conclusions on the usefulness of hair for biomonitoring OHCs in polar bears and other fur mammals.