A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

(Table 1) Calcite, siderite, and stable isotopes d13C and d18O at DSDP Hole 93-603B

Diagenesis of the fine-grained, feldspathic sandstones in the Lower Cretaceous submarine fan complex cored in DSDP Hole 603B can be considered to have occurred in three stages: (1) replacement of matrix and framework grains by pyrite, siderite, phillipsite (?), and particularly by ferroan calcite; (2) dissolution of ferroan calcite and feldspars to produce secondary macroporosity; and (3) development of sparse feldspar and quartz overgrowths, and authigenic modification of remnant matrix. Only ferroan calcite is a volumetrically important diagenetic mineral phase (up to 50 vol.%). Matrix in thin sandstone turbidite deposits has been extensively replaced by ferroan calcite. Carbon stable isotope data suggest that organic diagenesis had only a minor influence on calcite precipitation. Oxygen stable isotope data indicate that the minimum average calcite precipitation temperature was 40° C. Preliminary calculations show that steadystate diffusion of Ca+ + from the dissolution of nannoplankton skeletal material in the interbedded pelagic marls to the associated sandstones is a feasible transport mechanism. A thick sandstone unit from 1234-1263 m sub-bottom is extensively replaced by calcite near the upper and lower contacts. Farther into the sand body away from the contacts, the sandstone has good secondary porosity resulting from the dissolution of ferroan calcite that partially replaced matrix and framework grains. The central portion of the thick sand appears to be a channel with high-energy clean sand. We believe that the channel provided a conduit for focused flow of diagenetic compactional fluids responsible for dissolution. Focused flow may be the result of the earlier lithification of the pelagic limestones and thin-bedded sandstones which, then formed vertical permeability barriers. Calcite dissolution has occurred and may still be occurring at temperatures less than 65°C.