Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Plio-Pleistocene age-depth points and occurrence of hiatuses in ODP sites of the Southern Ocean

Changes in Atlantic deep water circulation were reconstructed by comparing the benthic foraminiferal delta13C record at ODP Site 1090 in the South Atlantic with similar records from the North Atlantic (Sites 982, 607, 925, 929) and deep Pacific (Site 849) oceans. Important deep water circulation changes occurred in the early Pleistocene at 1.55 Myr and during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition at 0.9 Myr. At 1.55 Myr, glacial delta13C values in the Southern Ocean became significantly lower than those in the deep Pacific, establishing a pattern that persisted throughout the late Pleistocene. We propose that the lowering of delta13C values of Southern Component Water (SCW) at this time resulted from expansion of sea ice and reduced ventilation of deep water during glacial periods after marine isotope stage 52. Accompanying this change in Southern Ocean deep water circulation was enhanced interhemispheric coupling between the North and South Atlantic after 1.55 Myr. At ~0.9 Myr, the magnitude of glacial-to-interglacial variabilityin delta13C increased and shifted to a longer frequency (100 kyr) along with oceanic delta18O (ice volume). Calculation of percent Northern Component Water (NCW) using Site 1090 as the SCW end member yielded 20-30% less reduction of NCW during glacial periods of the late Pleistocene. Also, a trend toward reduced glacial suppression of NCW during the past 400 kyr is not evident. The apparent decoupling of ice volume and deep water circulation reported previously maybe an artifact of using a Pacific, rather than a Southern Ocean, carbon isotopic record to calculate past mixing ratios of NCW and SCW.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Magnetostratigraphic age-depth tie points of ODP Leg 208 sites

We report the paleomagnetic and rock magnetic results from discrete sample analysis of sediments from Walvis Ridge, Leg 208 of the Ocean Drilling Program. In an effort to refine the shipboard magnetostratigraphy, alternating field and thermal demagnetization of discrete samples were carried out, predominantly on samples from Sites 1262 and 1267. Results are generally consistent with the shipboard pass-through cryomagnetometer data, though in some cases the discrete samples resolved ambiguities in the reversal record. Significantly, the C24r/C24n reversal boundary was identified at Sites 1262 and 1267, and most boundaries in the Paleocene and Upper Cretaceous sections are now identified to within 10-30 cm. Magnetic mineralogy results show that prior to the late Miocene, the predominant detrital magnetic component was coarse-grained magnetite and that after the late Miocene, titanomagnetite has also been present. This suggests a possible change in detrital source at that time.

Age determination and age tie-points of sediment cores from the Timor Sea

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

Calcareous nannofossil datums and control points for the TCMS age model of ODP Site 175-1085

An astronomically calibrated age model for the Pliocene section of Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175 Cape Basin Site 1085 based on magnetic susceptibility data was developed using shipboard biostratigraphic datums. The composite core magnetic susceptibility record was compiled using shipboard correlations between Holes 1085A and 1085B and then tuned to the record of orbital variations in eccentricity to generate an orbitally tuned age model. Magnetic susceptibility apparently records climate variations in the Cape Basin. Strong power spectra values at the 100- and 400-k.y. frequency suggest an orbital control on the beat of Pliocene climate change in the Cape Basin.

Table 1. Mean geochemical values for Baseline (pre-injection) and Monitor-1 (post-injection) samples, and the percent change between the two weighted means

The Weyburn Oil Field, Saskatchewan is the site of a large (5000 tonnes/day of CO2) CO2-EOR injection project By EnCana Corporation. Pre- and post-injection samples (Baseline and Monitor-1, respectively) of produced fluids from approximately 45 vertical wells were taken and chemically analyzed to determine changes in the fluid chemistry and isotope composition between August 2000 and March 2001. After 6 months of CO2 injection, geochemical parameters including pH, [HCO3], [Ca], [Mg], and ?13CO2(g) point to areas in which injected CO2 dissolution and reservoir carbonate mineral dissolution have occurred. Pre-injection fluid compositions suggest that the reservoir brine in the injection area may be capable of storing as much as 100 million tonnes of dissolved CO2. Modeling of water-rock reactions show that clay minerals and feldspar, although volumetrically insignificant, may be capable of acting as pH buffers, allowing injected CO2 to be stored as bicarbonate in the formation water or as newly precipitated carbonate minerals, given favorable reaction kinetics.