Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Simulated change in atmospheric CO2 and D14C around 14.6 kyr BP, at the onset of the northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød

One of the most abrupt and yet unexplained past rises in atmospheric CO2 (10 p.p.m.v. in two centuries) occurred in quasi-synchrony with abrupt northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød, 14,600 years ago. Here we use a U/Th-dated record of atmospheric D14C from Tahiti corals to provide an independent and precise age control for this CO2 rise. We also use model simulations to show that the release of old (nearly 14C-free) carbon can explain these changes in CO2 and D14C. The D14C record provides an independent constraint on the amount of carbon released (125 Pg C). We suggest, in line with observations of atmospheric CH4 and terrigenous biomarkers, that thawing permafrost in high northern latitudes could have been the source of carbon, possibly with contribution from flooding of the Siberian continental shelf during meltwater pulse 1A. Our findings highlight the potential of the permafrost carbon reservoir to modulate abrupt climate changes via greenhouse-gas feedbacks.

Carbon cycle change in the Eocene

The transition from the extreme global warmth of the early Eocene 'greenhouse' climate ~55 million years ago to the present glaciated state is one of the most prominent changes in Earth's climatic evolution. It is widely accepted that large ice sheets first appeared on Antarctica ~34 million years ago, coincident with decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and a deepening of the calcite compensation depth in the world's oceans, and that glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere began much later, between 10 and 6 million years ago. Here we present records of sediment and foraminiferal geochemistry covering the greenhouse-icehouse climate transition. We report evidence for synchronous deepening and subsequent oscillations in the calcite compensation depth in the tropical Pacific and South Atlantic oceans from ~42 million years ago, with a permanent deepening 34 million years ago. The most prominent variations in the calcite compensation depth coincide with changes in seawater oxygen isotope ratios of up to 1.5 per mil, suggesting a lowering of global sea level through significant storage of ice in both hemispheres by at least 100 to 125 metres. Variations in benthic carbon isotope ratios of up to ~1.4 per mil occurred at the same time, indicating large changes in carbon cycling. We suggest that the greenhouse-icehouse transition was closely coupled to the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that negative carbon cycle feedbacks may have prevented the permanent establishment of large ice sheets earlier than 34 million years ago.

pH and calcium change in the microenvironment of a benthic foraminifer (Ammonia sp.) and its size during experiments

Calcareous foraminifera are well known for their CaCO3 shells. Yet, CaCO3 precipitation acidifies the calcifying fluid. Calcification without pH regulation would therefore rapidly create a negative feedback for CaCO3 precipitation. In unicellular organisms, like foraminifera, an effective mechanism to counteract this acidification could be the externalization of H+ from the site of calcification. In this study we show that a benthic symbiont-free foraminifer Ammonia sp. actively decreases pH within its extracellular microenvironment only while precipitating calcite. During chamber formation events the strongest pH decreases occurred in the vicinity of a newly forming chamber (range of gradient about 100 µm) with a recorded minimum of 6.31 (< 10 µm from the shell) and a maximum duration of 7 h. The acidification was actively regulated by the foraminifera and correlated with shell diameters, indicating that the amount of protons removed during calcification is directly related to the volume of calcite precipitated. The here presented findings imply that H+ expulsion as a result of calcification may be a wider strategy for maintaining pH homeostasis in unicellular calcifying organisms.