51 resultados para Calibration uncertainty

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A reliable assessment of relevant substance flows is very important for environmental risk assessments and efficiency analysis of measures to reduce or avoid emissions of micropollutants like drugs to water systems. Accordingly, a detailed preparation of monitoring campaigns should include an accuracy check for the sampling configuration to prove the reliability of the monitoring results and the subsequent data processing. The accuracy of substance flow analyses is expected to be particularly weak for substances having high short-term variations of concentrations in sewage. This is especially the case linked to the observation of substance flows close to source in waste water systems. The verification of a monitoring configuration in a hospital sewer in Luxembourg is in the centre of interest of the case study presented here. A tracer test in the sewer system under observation is an essential element of the suggested accuracy check and provides valuable information for an uncertainty analysis. The results illustrate the importance of accuracy checks as an essential element of the preparation of monitoring campaigns. Moreover the study shows that continuous flow proportional sampling enables a representative observation of short-term peak loads of the iodinated x-ray contrast media iobitridol close to source.

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A limiting factor in the accuracy and precision of U/Pb zircon dates is accurate correction for initial disequilibrium in the 238U and 235U decay chains. The longest-lived-and therefore most abundant-intermediate daughter product in the 235U isotopic decay chain is 231Pa (T1/2 = 32.71 ka), and the partitioning behavior of Pa in zircon is not well constrained. Here we report high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U-Pb zircon data from two samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 735B, which show evidence for incorporation of excess 231Pa during zircon crystallization. The most precise analyses from the two samples have consistent Th-corrected 206Pb/238U dates with weighted means of 11.9325 ± 0.0039 Ma (n = 9) and 11.920 ± 0.011 Ma (n = 4), but distinctly older 207Pb/235U dates that vary from 12.330 ± 0.048 Ma to 12.140 ± 0.044 Ma and 12.03 ± 0.24 to 12.40 ± 0.27 Ma, respectively. If the excess 207Pb is due to variable initial excess 231Pa, calculated initial (231Pa)/(235U) activity ratios for the two samples range from 5.6 ± 1.0 to 9.6 ± 1.1 and 3.5 ± 5.2 to 11.4 ± 5.8. The data from the more precisely dated sample yields estimated DPazircon/DUzircon from 2.2-3.8 and 5.6-9.6, assuming (231Pa)/(235U) of the melt equal to the global average of recently erupted mid-ocean ridge basaltic glasses or secular equilibrium, respectively. High precision ID-TIMS analyses from nine additional samples from Hole 735B and nearby Hole 1105A suggest similar partitioning. The lower range of DPazircon/DUzircon is consistent with ion microprobe measurements of 231Pa in zircons from Holocene and Pleistocene rhyolitic eruptions (Schmitt (2007; doi:10.2138/am.2007.2449) and Schmitt (2011; doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-040610-133330)). The data suggest that 231Pa is preferentially incorporated during zircon crystallization over a range of magmatic compositions, and excess initial 231Pa may be more common in zircons than acknowledged. The degree of initial disequilibrium in the 235U decay chain suggested by the data from this study, and other recent high precision datasets, leads to resolvable discordance in high precision dates of Cenozoic to Mesozoic zircons. Minor discordance in zircons of this age may therefore reflect initial excess 231Pa and does not require either inheritance or Pb loss.

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Very significant enhancements of the element iridium have been observed in association with the Cretaceous/ Tertiary boundary in marine sediments laid down 65 m.y. ago and subsequently uplifted above the ocean's surface. If our hypothesis for the origin of the iridium and the cause of the Cretaceous/Tertiary life extinctions (the asteroid-impact theory) (Alvarez et al., 1980) is correct, the Ir anomaly should be associated with the Cretaceous/ Tertiary boundary region wherever it is intact. The present work was undertaken to search for the Ir anomaly in a deep-sea-drilling core, in order to check this aspect of the asteroid-impact theory.

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Attempts to place Palaeolithic finds within a precise climatic framework are complicated by both uncertainty over the radiocarbon calibration beyond about 21,500 14C years bp (Reimer et al., 2004) and the absence of a master calendar chronology for climate events from reference archives such as Greenland ice cores or speleothems (Svensson et al., 2006, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.08.003). Here we present an alternative approach, in which 14C dates of interest are mapped directly onto the palaeoclimate record of the Cariaco Basin by means of its 14C series (Hughen et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1090300), circumventing calendar age model and correlation uncertainties, and placing dated events in the millennial-scale climate context of the last glacial period. This is applied to different sets of dates from levels with Mousterian artefacts, presumably produced by late Neanderthals, from Gorham's Cave in Gibraltar: first, generally accepted estimates of about 32,000 14C years bp for the uppermost Mousterian levels (Pettitt and Bailey, 2000; Bronk Ramsey et al., 2002, doi:10.1111/1475-4754.00040); second, a possible extended Middle Palaeolithic occupation until about 28,000 14C years bp (Finlayson et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature05195); and third, more contentious evidence for persistence until about 24,000 14C years bp (Finlayson et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature05195). This study shows that the three sets translate to different scenarios on the role of climate in Neanderthal extinction. The first two correspond to intervals of general climatic instability between stadials and interstadials that characterized most of the Middle Pleniglacial and are not coeval with Heinrich Events. In contrast, if accepted, the youngest date indicates that late Neanderthals may have persisted up to the onset of a major environmental shift, which included an expansion in global ice volume and an increased latitudinal temperature gradient. More generally, our radiocarbon climatostratigraphic approach can be applied to any 'snapshot' date from discontinuous records in a variety of deposits and can become a powerful tool in evaluating the climatic signature of critical intervals in Late Pleistocene human evolution.

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Ice core records demonstrate a glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 increase by ~100 ppm, while 14C calibration efforts document a strong decrease in atmospheric 14C concentration during this period. A calculated transfer of ~530 Gt of 14C depleted carbon is required to produce the deglacial coeval rise of carbon in the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. This amount is usually ascribed to oceanic carbon release, although the actual mechanisms remained elusive, since an adequately old and carbon-enriched deep-ocean reservoir seemed unlikely. Here we present a new, though still fragmentary, ocean-wide d14C dataset showing that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1) the maximum 14C age difference between ocean deep waters and the atmosphere exceeded the modern values by up to 1500 14C yr, in the extreme reaching 5100 14C yr. Below 2000 m depth the 14C ventilation age of modern ocean waters is directly linked to the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We propose as working hypothesis that the modern regression of DIC vs d14C also applies for LGM times, which implies that a mean LGM aging by ~600 14C yr corresponded to a global rise of ~85-115 µmol DIC/kg in the deep ocean. Thus, the prolonged residence time of ocean deep waters may indeed have made it possible to absorb an additional ~730-980 Gt DIC, one third of which possibly originated from intermediate waters. We also infer that LGM deep-water O2 dropped to suboxic values of <10µmol/kg in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, possibly also in the subpolar North Pacific. The outlined deglacial transfer of the extra aged, deep-ocean carbon to the atmosphere via the dynamic ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange would be sufficient to account for two trends observed, (1) for the increase in atmospheric CO2 and (2) for the 190-permil drop in atmospheric d14C during the so-called HS-1 'Mystery Interval', when atmospheric 14C production rates were largely constant.

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Benthic foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca of sediment cores off tropical NW Africa are used to study the properties of Atlantic central waters during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1). We combined our core top data with published results to develop a new Mg/Ca-temperature calibration for Planulina ariminensis, which shows a Mg/Ca-temperature sensitivity of 0.19 mmol/mol per °C. Estimates of the LGM and HS1 thermocline temperatures are comparable to the present-day values between 200 and 400 m water depth, but were 1.2-1.5°C warmer at 550-570 m depth. The HS1 thermocline waters (200-570 m depth) did not show any warming relative to the LGM. This is in contrast to previous climate model studies, which concluded that tropical Atlantic thermocline waters warmed significantly when Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was reduced. However, our results suggest that thermocline temperatures of the northeastern tropical Atlantic show no pronounced sensitivity to changes in the thermohaline circulation during glacial periods. In contrast, we find a significant increase in thermocline-water salinity during the LGM (200-550 m depth) and HS1 (200-400 m depth) with respect to the present-day, which we relate to changes in the wind-driven circulation. We infer that the LGM thermocline (200-550 m depth) and the HS1 upper thermocline (200-400 m depth) in the northeastern tropical Atlantic was ventilated by surface waters from the North Atlantic rather than the southern-sourced waters. This suggests that the frontal zone between the modern South Atlantic and North Atlantic Central Waters was probably shifted southward during the LGM and HS1.

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The North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea are prominent sinks of atmospheric CO2 today, but their roles in the past remain poorly constrained. In this study, we attempt to use B/Ca and d11B ratios in the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral variety) to reconstruct subsurface water pH and pCO2 changes in the polar North Atlantic during the last deglaciation. Comparison of core-top results with nearby hydrographic data shows that B/Ca in N. pachyderma (s) is mainly controlled by seawater [B(OH)4]?/[HCO3]? with a roughly constant partition coefficient (KD =([B/Ca]of CaCO3)/([B(OH)4]-/[HCO3]-)of seawater) of 1.48 ± 0.15 * 10**-3 (2sigma), and d11B in this species is offset below d11B of the borate in seawater by 3.38 ± 0.71 per mil (2sigma). These values represent our best estimates with the sparse available hydrographic data close to our core-tops. More culturing and sediment trap work is needed to improve our understanding of boron incorporation into N. pachyderma (s). Application of a constant KD of 1.48 * 10**-3 to high resolution N. pachyderma (s) B/Ca records from two adjacent cores off Iceland shows that subsurface pCO2 at the habitat depth of N. pachyderma (s) (~50 m) generally followed the atmospheric CO2 trend but with negative offsets of ~10-50 ppmv during 19-10 ka. These B/Ca-based reconstructions are supported by independent estimates from low-resolution d11B measurements in the same cores. We also calibrate and apply Cd/Ca in N. pachyderma (s) to reconstruct nutrient levels for the same down cores. Like today's North Atlantic, past subsurface pCO2 variability off Iceland was significantly correlated with nutrient changes that might be linked to surface nutrient utilization and mixing within the upper water column. Because surface pCO2 (at 0 m water depth) is always lower than at deeper depths and if the application of a constant KD is valid, our results suggest that the polar North Atlantic has remained a CO2 sink during the calcification seasons of N. pachyderma (s) over the last deglaciation.

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Magnetic polarity stratigraphies from ODP Leg 177 'high resolution' sites indicate Brunhes sedimentation rates in the 12-25 cm/kyr range, with a trend of decreasing sedimentation rates with increasing age. Magnetite is the principal remanence-carrying mineral. Downcore alteration of magnetite and authigenic growth of iron sulfides introduces a high coercivity diagenetic remanence carrier (pyrrhotite). The change in pore water sulfate with depth in the sediment tends to be in step with the decrease in magnetization intensity, indicating the link between sulfate reduction and magnetite dissolution. Shipboard pass-through magnetometer data are generally very noisy due to a combination of weak magnetization intensities, drilling-related core deformation, and the influence of authigenic iron sulfides. Post-cruise progressive demagnetization of discrete samples aids the magnetostratigraphic interpretation, as these measurements are less influenced by low magnetization intensities and drilling-related deformation. The magnetostratigraphic interpretations provide much-needed calibration for biostratigraphic events in the high latitude southern oceans. Apart from the ODP Hole 745B (Kerguelen Plateau), published Plio-Pleistocene magnetostratigraphies from ODP sites in the Southern Ocean are poorly constrained. For this reason, we compare interpolated ages of 11 radiolarian events and one diatom event that occur at Hole 745B and Leg 177 sites.

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Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

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Ice-rafting evidence for a '1500-year cycle' sparked considerable debate on millennial-scale climate change and the role of solar variability. Here, we reinterpret the last 70,000 years of the subpolar North Atlantic record, focusing on classic DSDP Site 609, in the context of newly available raw data, the latest radiocarbon calibration (Marine09) and ice core chronology (GICC05), and a wider range of statistical methodologies. A ~1500-year oscillation is primarily limited to the short glacial Stage 4, the age of which is derived solely from an ice flow model (ss09sea), subject to uncertainty, and offset most from the original chronology. Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ~1000 and ~2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability. Our new results suggest that the '1500-year cycle' may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging.

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The relationship between phytoplankton assemblages and the associated optical properties of the water body is important for the further development of algorithms for large-scale remote sensing of phytoplankton biomass and the identification of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs), which are often representative for different biogeochemical export scenarios. Optical in-situ measurements aid in the identification of phytoplankton groups with differing pigment compositions and are widely used to validate remote sensing data. In this study we present results from an interdisciplinary cruise aboard the RV Polarstern along a north-to-south transect in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in November 2008. Phytoplankton community composition was identified using a broad set of in-situ measurements. Water samples from the surface and the depth of maximum chlorophyll concentration were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), flow cytometry, spectrophotometry and microscopy. Simultaneously, the above- and underwater light field was measured by a set of high spectral resolution (hyperspectral) radiometers. An unsupervised cluster algorithm applied to the measured parameters allowed us to define bio-optical provinces, which we compared to ecological provinces proposed elsewhere in the literature. As could be expected, picophytoplankton was responsible for most of the variability of PFTs in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Our bio-optical clusters agreed well with established provinces and thus can be used to classify areas of similar biogeography. This method has the potential to become an automated approach where satellite data could be used to identify shifting boundaries of established ecological provinces or to track exceptions from the rule to improve our understanding of the biogeochemical cycles in the ocean.